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1、 2013 World OilOutlookOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesOPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental or- ganization, established in Baghdad, Iraq, on 1014 September 1960. The Organiza- tion comprises 12 Members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Ni
2、geria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. OPEC Secretariat, 2013 Helferstorferstrasse 17 A-1010 Vienna, Austria www.opec.orgISBN 978-3-9502722-6-0The data, analysis and any other information (Content) contained in th
3、is publica- tion is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for advice from your business, finance, investment consultant or other professional. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the Content of this publication, the OPEC Secretariat makes
4、no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, currency or comprehensiveness and assumes no liability or responsibility for any error or omission and/or for any loss arising in connection with or attribut- able to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on the Content of t
5、his publication. This publication may contain references to material(s) from third parties whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorization from the copyright owner(s). The OPEC Secretariat will not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of third party material(s)
6、. The views expressed in this pub- lication are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of individual OPEC Member Countries. The material contained in this publication may be used and/or reproduced for edu- cational and other non-commercial purposes without prior writt
7、en permission from the OPEC Secretariat provided that the copyright holder is fully acknowledged.AcknowledgementsDirector, Research Division Omar S Abdul-HamidHead, Energy Studies Department Oswaldo Tapia SolisHead, Petroleum Studies Department Hojatollah Ghanimi FardHead, Data Services Department A
8、dedapo OdulajaSenior Adviser Mohamed HamelContributors Garry Brennand, Jan Ban, Amal Alawami, Mohammad Taeb, Taher Najah, Joerg Spitzy, Jorge Len Arellano, Mehrzad Zamani, Julio Arboleda Larrea, Ralf Vogel, Shayma Amin, Nadir Guerer, Aziz Yahyai, Douglas Linton, Roland Matous, Roberto Aguilera, Laur
9、a Atkins, Martin TallettAdditional contributors Haidar Khadadeh, Elio Rodriguez Medina, Eissa Alzerma, Anisah Almadhayyan, Afshin Javan, Imad Alam Al-Deen, Hassan Balfakeih, Eleni Kaditi, Petr Steiner, Mohamed Haroun, Yazeed Al-Rashed, Basma Ali AbdulKareemEditors James Griffin, Alvino-Mario Fantini
10、, Keith Aylward-MarchantSenior Editing Assistant Anne RechbachSecretarial support Khedoudja Zeghdoud, Marie Brearley, Beatrix Mayer-Karolyi, Yi Wen HuangLayout and typesetting Andrea BirnbachDesign Jeitler poorer countries are more dependent on agriculture Figure 5.1 Global product demand, 2012 and
11、2035 Figure 5.2 Global diesel/gasoil consumption by sector, 2011 Figure 5.3 Global liquid products demand in the transport sector, 2011 Figure 5.4 Gasoline demand by region, 20122035 Figure 5.5 Projected IFO switch to diesel oil, 20152035 Figure 5.6 Composition of other products in 2011 Figure 5.7 R
12、eference Case outlook for oil demand by product, Asia-Pacific, 2012 2035 Figure 5.8 Reference Case outlook for oil demand by product, Africa, 20122035 Figure 5.9 Reference Case outlook for oil demand by product, Europe, 20122035Figure 5.10 Reference Case outlook for oil demand by product, Russia but
13、 in recent years several important trends have emerged worth monitor- ing. On the one hand, there are growing numbers of automobile users in developing countries, particularly in China, India and developing Asia. This is a significant source of future demand growth. On the other hand, efficiency imp
14、rovements, the use of alternative fuels and the adoption of non-oil-based engines, tend to limit the pace of such growth. The expectation of strong demand growth in developing countries leads to an expansion of the refining sector in these growing regions. This is especially the case for major Asian
15、 countries followed by the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. In contrast, the key feature of the medium-term outlook for refining in developed countries is the need for further capacity closures, well beyond what has already occurred. The trend remains similar in the longer term where little ex
16、pansion of refining capacity in developed countries contrasts with the growth elsewhere. This will result in a significant change in future oil movements, which is projected to flow increasingly eastward, attracted by demand increases in Asia. Efforts towards the protection of the environment, while pursuing economic de- velopment and ensuring social progress, are welcome. However, they continue to be a source of great uncertainty. Neverth
