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1、上海交通大学硕士学位论文农户借贷行为研究以山东省农村固定跟踪观察户为例姓名：孙善侠申请学位级别：硕士专业：农业经济管理指导教师：史清华20080101上海交通大学硕士学位论文 农户借贷行为研究农户借贷行为研究 以山东省农村固定跟踪观察户为例以山东省农村固定跟踪观察户为例 摘摘 要要 农村经济的发展离不开农村金融的支持， 发展资金不足一直是困扰农村经济发展的主要障碍。我国农业规模小且经营分散，这决定了单个农户的经济实力弱小，资金积累能力差，需要从家庭外部获得资金支持；而农业生产周期长、利润低、风险大的特点又导致以农业生产为主的整个农村地区的资金积累速度慢， 需要从农村外部获得资金支持。 家庭外部
2、的资金支持表现为农户自其他农户或金融机构处获得资金支持； 农村外部的资金支持表现为国家为农业农村的发展持续注入资金。 但农村的金融现状却是农村不仅不能通过正规金融机构渠道获得外部资金支持，内部资金反而不断流失，农户无法获得足够的资金来满足生产生活需要。 本文分析了山东农户借贷的基本状况以及农户借款规模的影响因素，并对农户最主要的两种借贷形式，金融机构借贷和私人借贷的特点进行深入分析，找出对其产生影响的各种因素，最终找到一些能够缓解农户借贷难的问题的对策。 全文共分 5 章，其中第二章至第四章为本文的重点。 第一章为引言。 主要分析本文的研究意义以及对相关研究进行文献综述。 在第二章中，首先对山
3、东农户借贷的基本状况进行统计分析，发上海交通大学硕士学位论文 现农户的借入水平不断提高的同时，借入面却在不断下降，农户的借款主要为私人借款和生活性借款；不同收入类型的农户，其借贷行为呈现出不同的特点；然后使用计量模型分析发现农户收入水平、农户生活消费支出与年末拥有居住房屋原值对农户借款规模有显著影响作用。 在第三章中， 使用博弈模型分析了农户与金融机构之间的借贷行为以及农户之间的借贷行为， 发现影响农户金融机构借贷的主要因素有单笔借款金额、借款利率、农户利率之外的借款成本、金融机构的贷款成本以及信用体系的完善程度； 而影响农户间借贷的主要因素有借款金额、借款的使用效用、借贷行为涉及的人情效用、
4、诉讼成本、良好的声誉及人际关系对当事人的重要性。 在第四章中，使用个案分析方法，对农户借贷的个案进行具体分析，发现农户的私人借贷相比金融机构金额较小，但期限较长，用途较多；亲友是农户选择借款来源的首选；农户的人际关系状况不仅影响其私人借款，而且影响其金融机构借款；农户借贷有时存在借入借出交叉的现象。 第五章为结论与对策建议部分。主要对策建议包括：加强农村金融法制建设和信用体系建设，完善贷款抵押方式，鼓励农村建立资金互助合作社以及其他各种形式的民间金融组织。 关键字：关键字：农户，借贷，农村金融，TOBIT 分析，博弈分析上海交通大学硕士学位论文 STUDIES ON THE BORROWING
5、 BEHAVIOR OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS Case Study of Constantly-observed Rural Households in Shandong Province ABSTRACT The development of rural finance is the base of the development of rural economics. For the development of economy in country, the deficiency of capital is always the most important obstacl
6、e. The rural households are feeble in capital strength and have to obtain outside capital support because of the small dimension and decentralization of agriculture in China. The rural area also needs outside capital support because its development depends on agriculture, which characterizes long pr
7、oduction period, low benefit and high risk. The financial support from outside of rural households includes borrowing from other rural households and financial organization, while the financial support from outside of rural area includes the continuous funds provided by the government. However, the
8、current situation is that the rural area cant obtain funds from the normal financial channel and its internal capital is transferred to other fields. Therefore, the capital of rural households cant satisfy their life and production needs. 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 This study analyzed the basic situation of the r
9、ural households borrowing in Shandong province and the factors influencing borrowing scale, and further analyzed the two most important borrowing forms, financial organization borrowing and personal borrowing. Then we found out the various influence factors of them and finally discovered the key to
10、the existing problems of rural households borrowing. This paper is consisted of five parts. The second to the forth part are main body of this paper. The first part introduced the meaning of this study and the related review on this research field. In the second part, we first statistically analyzed
11、 the current situation of rural households borrowing in Shandong province, and found that the range of borrowing is decreased with the increasing level of borrowing and personal borrowing and living borrowing are the two main borrowing. Then we found the rural households with different income presen
12、t different characteristics in borrowing. Finally, we found that the income, the consumption payout and the original value of house in the end of one year influence the borrowing scale remarkably. In the third part, we analyzed the borrowing and loan behavior between households and financial organiz
13、ations and between rural households using game model. The results showed that the main factors that influence the borrowing and loan behavior between households and 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 financial organizations include the amount and rate of borrowing, the borrowing cost of households, the loan cost of finan
14、cial organizations. The main factors that influence the borrowing and loan behavior between rural households includes the amount of borrowing, the use of the borrowing, the cost of lawsuit, the importance of good reputation and social relation. In the fourth part, through analysis of individual exam
15、ples, we found the borrowing from other households, compared with the borrowing from financial organizations, characterizes the smaller amount, longer period and more purposes. Borrowing from relatives and friends are the first choice of households. The rural households social relation not only affe
16、cts their personal borrowing ability but also their borrowing ability from financial organizations. We also found that the coexisting of borrowing and lending is common for some rural households. The fifth part includes the conclusion and suggestions. The primary suggestions are as follows: The reinforcement of the financial legal and credit system construction, consummation of the mortgage mode, encouragement to establish financial organizations to support each other in househo
