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1、State of the Future Index 2002Adding Trend Impact Analysis to SOFIThe ConceptnA State of the Future Index would measure overall, whether the future seems to be improving or worseningnWhat variables should be included?nWhat weight should be accorded these variables? (relative importance)nHow can the
2、variables be made commensurate? (scaled against normative and dystopic)nHow can the non linearity of weighting be accommodated?nHow can the integrity of the components be preserved?The VariablesnInfant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)nFood availability Cal/cp Low Income CountriesnGDP pe
3、r capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars)nPercentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water (15 Most Populated Countries)nMean Monthly Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere (ppm) nAnnual population additions millionsnPercent unemployednLiteracy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above in low and middle in
4、come countries)nAnnual AIDS deaths (millions)nLife Expectancy (World)nNumber of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)nDebt to GNP Ratio: (%) Developing CountriesnForest Lands (Million Hectares)nPeople living on less than $2 per day (Billions, less China)nTerrorist Attacks, number of people kille
5、d or woundednViolent Crime Rate, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)nPercent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not FreenNet school Enrollment, secondary (% school age)nPercentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)Forecasting the Variables: 2
6、001n1. Linearv= m*t + bn2. Exponentialln(v)=m*t + bn3. Power function ln(v)=m*ln(t) + bn4. Logarithmicv= m*ln(t) + bn5. Inverse v1/v=m*t + bn6. Inverse tv=m/t + bn7. S Shapedln(v/L)/1-(v/L)= m*t + bForecasting the Variables: 2002nBegin with the best fit extrapolationnList future developments that af
7、fect the extrapolationnFor each development: probability over time nFor each development and variable: impactnMonte Carlo solution to produce a new band of forecastsProbability and Impact Judgments: CO2DevelopmentScoreMax ProbMax ImpMin Imp16. Improved agriculture; reduction by 10% of waste of energ
8、y and material in agriculture.297.005.00-0.20-2.00215. Solar power, possibly from solar satellites, wind or other alternate sources provides 5% of global power742.505.00-0.50-5.0039. Social marketing by governments to effectively promote health care and other public objectives.1512.550.00-0.10-1.004
9、18. Cars with low CO2: affordable cars that produce 1/3 the amount of CO2, dropping CO2 atmospheric pollution by 2%.297.005.00-0.20-2.00575. Decision making: effective systems for augmenting human intelligence and improve decision making (measurable improvement in 10% of decisions).3025.010.00-1.00-
10、10.00624. Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive, affects decisionmaking everywhere.18287.70.00-0.50-5.00729. Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.783.7525.00-0.20-1.00837. Further industrialization of China, India.21945.70.0010.002.00942. Miniaturi
11、zation of machines and electronics; applied nanotechnology becoming at least 5% of the economy of advanced nations2707.525.002.000.401044. Novel protein for food replacing meat, widely accepted, inexpensive.891.0010.00-0.30-3.001147. Rejection of free markets and return to communism in several trans
12、ition economies891.0010.003.000.301250. Oil prices climb to 50 dollars per barrel2612.525.002.000.201373. Trade wars and protectionism become the norm313.505.002.000.401475. Decision making: effective systems for augmenting human intelligence and improve decision making (measurable improvement in 10
13、% of decisions).0.000.000.000.00Probability and Impact Judgments: CO2.GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)Infant Mortality; Deaths per 1,000 Live BirthsFood availability Cal/cp Developing CountriesSafe Water: Pct of Households w/ Access (15 Most Populated Countries).Debt/GNP; Developing Countries
14、(%)bAnnual AIDS deaths (millions)Life Expectancy (World)Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr).Forest Lands (Million Hectares)Terrorist Attacks, (Number Killed or Wounded)Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)People Living on Less than $2 per day (Billions, less China).Lit
15、eracy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)CO2 atmospheric, ppmAnnual population additions (millions)Percent unemployed.Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not FreePercentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)School Enrollmen
16、t, secondary (% school age)5. Biotech in agriculture: improved food availability as well as enhanced animal health, insect-and disease resistant plants, etc.9. Social marketing by governments to effectively promote health care and other public objectives.13. Convergence of information/ communication technologies (Including Internet) lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production. 16. Mad cow disease found in every country17. Global political order: more aspects o
