UBS+-美国经济展望2023-2024-22正式版

ab8 November 2022Global Research and Evidence LabUS Economic PerspectivesUS Economic Outlook 2023-2024Hard landing:something has to giveWe think the US expansion is headed for a hard landing.A soft landing for the US economy now looks like an upside risk.Household spending has been weak.Households are running down savings.Credit card balances are rising.Goods spending remains very elevated.House prices are falling.On top of this,interest rates have moved higher at an historically rapid pace.The full effects of monetary policy tightening remain to be seen.Plus,we estimate fiscal policy is still a drag in 2023.We think undoing the imbalances under the strain of higher interest rates should be sufficient to push the US into contraction in 2023,after the current momentum wanes.Negative GDP growth next year,unemployment rate rises 2ppThe economys current momentum should wane in the coming months,in our view,and begin contracting in earnest late in Q1 or early in Q2.That could happen earlier or later,but in our projection we would expect a contraction of roughly 1%of real GDP that lasts 8 months,a little milder than the 1991 recession but with the same duration.We estimate a roughly proportional employment response with outright job losses reported in the next six or so months.In our forecast,payrolls continue to decline for about a year.The trough-to-peak increase in the unemployment rate is roughly 2 pp,rising to near 5-1/2%in 2024.PCE inflation headed below 2%after unemployment rate risesHeadline and core inflation look terribly high.That said,goods disinflation appears to have taken hold.Supply chains are loosening,imported consumer goods prices declining,and used car prices moving down rapidly.The pace of increase of rents of new leases has slowed considerably.The labor market slowing,freeing up some slack,will reduce inflationary pressures too.In our projection,labor market slack only begins to help depress price inflation in the second half of 2023,while rising unemployment adds further disinflation pressures in 2024.Overall,if our economic outlook unfolds,we would expect core PCE inflation to fall to roughly 2.1%in the fourth quarter of 2023,and to 1.6%in the fourth quarter of 2024.Despite some narratives to the contrary,US recessions are historically very disinflationary.FOMC to raise rates but then respond to contraction with lower ratesAs a result of the economic weakness we see unfolding in 2023,we think the Fed would respond.Before that,with inflation still surprising them to the upside,we expect the FOMC to move the target range for the federal funds rate to roughly 5%in early 2023.However,after seeing outright job losses,we expect the FOMC to react and to take out at least some of the restrictive policy.In our projection the FOMC starts cutting interest rates in Q3 of 2023.Overall,we expect the FOMC to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.0%to 3.25%at the end of 2023,and to 1.0%to 1.25%in early 2024.We still expect quantitative tightening to end in mid 2023 even if there is no recession.Limited fiscal supportUnder the assumption that Republicans win either or both chambers of Congress,we assume no further fiscal support in our projection beyond what has been already legislated and normal automatic stabilizers,including extended unemployment insurance.The politicization of fiscal expansion seems likely to be a material obstacle until after the Presidential election in November 2024,and gridlock likely resumes in the meantime.This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC.ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS,begin on page 19.EconomicsAmericasJonathan PingleEconomist +1-212-713 2225Samuel D.CoffinEconomist +1-212-713 2473Alan DetmeisterEconomist +1-212-713 1222Pablo Villanueva,CFAEconomist +1-212-713 4074Duda FreireEconomist +1-212-713 4173 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要更多一手调研纪要和研报加V：s h u i m u 9 8 7 0US Economic Perspectives 8 November 2022ab 2US Economic Outlook:storm clouds gatheringSomething has to give.Real goods spending remains stubbornly,perhaps unsustainably,elevated.Consumers are spending down savings just to maintain sluggish real consumption.The US personal saving rate has been pushed meaningfully below pre-pandemic levels;eventual normalization needs to come from either higher income or lower consumption.Productivity growth has been very low,and looks low enough in the near term to move the economy quickly from scarce workers to over-hiring.The global backdrop looks weak.Indicators of business spending plans have rolled over.The nation has suffered a permanent negative shock to the level of labor supply.House prices have stretched far beyond median incomes.Households appear to be burning through savings at over a$1 trillion annualized clip.Credit card balances are rising,a sign an increasing number of households are running out of savings,with budget constraints binding.To sustain al