国际能源署-净零过渡期的煤炭（英）-2022.11-224正式版

Coal in Net Zero Transitions Strategies for rapid, secure and people-centred change World Energy Outlook Special Report INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the IEA member full spectrum countries: of energy issues Australia including oil, gas and coal supply and Austria demand, renewable Belgium energy technologies, Canada electricity markets, Czech Republic energy efficiency, Denmark access to energy, Estonia demand side Finland management and France much more. Through Germany its work, the IEA Greece advocates policies Hungary that will enhance the Ireland reliability, affordability Italy and sustainability of Japan energy in its Korea 31 member countries, Lithuania 11 association Luxembourg countries and Mexico beyond. Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom This publication and any United States map included herein are The European without prejudice to the Commission also status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the participates in the delimitation of international work of the IEA frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.  IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Foreword As the energy sector’s single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, coal is at the heart of the global conversation on energy and climate. All scenarios modelled by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the future of energy supply and demand that are consistent with international climate goals feature a rapid decline in global coal emissions. Without such a decline, it will be impossible to avoid severe impacts from a changing climate. As our new analysis in this World Energy Outlook Special Report makes clear, more than 95% of today’s global coal consumption occurs in countries that have pledged to achieve net zero emissions. At the same time, however, the data show that the world is far from heading decisively in that direction. Global coal use and emissions have essentially plateaued at a high level, with no definitive signs of an imminent reduction. In fact, coal use in some countries has seen a modest uptick as a result of the current global energy crisis. Even if this is temporary, as our analysis suggests, it is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero – especially the narrow‐but‐ achievable goal of doing so by 2050. The current situation in energy markets underscores the huge challenges of reducing emissions while maintaining energy security. Renewable energy options such as solar and wind are the most cost‐effective new sources of electricity generation in most markets, but despite their impressively rapid growth in recent years, they have not yet brought about a decline in coal’s global emissions. Reducing global coal emissions while ensuring reliable and affordable energy supplies and tackling the social consequences of this change will require a dedicated and determined policy effort by governments. Multiple challenges remain. In many countries, the way in which markets and contracts have been designed mean that coal plants are effectively shielded from competition. In the industrial sector, accelerated innovation is crucial to bring to market the technologies needed to drive down coal emissions in key areas such as steel and cement. Building up clean energy assets to replace coal is absolutely essential to reach environmental goals and support economic growth while safeguarding energy security. At the same time, carefully designed policies and government coordination with other stakeholders such as industry and labour organisations are fundamental to enable workers and communities to adjust to changes affecting the coal industry, which has deep links to jobs and economic development in coal‐producing regions. These challenges are especially significant in developing economies where electricity demand is growing rapidly, coal is often the incumbent fuel for electricity generation, and industrial uses of coal are on the rise. This is one of the reasons why, if the international community fails to manage coal transitions appropriately, I see a real risk of fractures emerging between some advanced and developing economies, which could lead to damaging geopolitical rifts globally. There are some encouraging signs of international collaboration in the discussions on Just Energy Transition Partnerships with South Africa, Indonesia and other major emerging economies. But there’s much more to be done to match funding w