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1、CHAPTER 17,Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis,Fundamental Analysis基本面分析 -concept of intrinsic value which are determined by the earnings prospects -price tend to move towards intrinsic value内在价值 -find the mispriced stocks,Framework of Fundamental Analysis,Fundamental Analysis: which factors affect
2、a companys earning prospect? Global and domestic economy analysis Industry analysis Company specific analysis -equity valuation analysis -financial statement analysis Why use the top-down approach? - systematic and unsystematic risk with portfolio diversification Fundamental v.s. technical analysis技
3、术面分析,Framework of Fundamental Analysis,CHAPTER 17 Preview,STUDY OBJECTIVES,Impact of global economy on: -export, competition and profit made from foreign countries Performance in countries and regions is highly variable Two particular factors: Political events and political risk Exchange rate issues
4、 Competitiveness of a countrys industry Affect returns from investments in foreign market However, diversification with foreign securities included in a portfolio,17.1 The Global Economy,Economic Performance in Selected Emerging Markets,Performance in countries and regions is highly variable,Table 1
5、7.1 Economic Performance in selected countries,Figure 17.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: U.S. Dollar versus Major Currencies, 19992006,Key Economic indicators Gross domestic product -alternative indicator:industrial output Level of employment -full employment and potential GDP Inflation -effect in t
6、he short term and long term Interest rate -high interest rate leads to contraction Budget deficit -crowding out effect挤出效应 to push out the investment from private sector Consumer sentiment,17.2 Domestic Macroeconomy,Figure 17.2 S&P 500 Index versus Earnings Per Share,Demand shock需求冲击 - an event that
7、 affects demand for goods and services in the economy -positive and negative shocks -eg. Changes in tax rate/money supply/ government spending/foreign export demand etc.,17.3 Demand and supply shocks,Supply shock供给冲击 - an event that influences production capacity or production costs -positive and ne
8、gative shocks -eg. changes in price of imported oil, freezes, floods, draughts, changes in the educational level of an economys workforce, changes in the wage rates,etc.,17.3 Demand and supply shocks,Review question: Consider an economy where the dominant industry is the automobile manufacturing ind
9、ustry with demand from the domestic market. Now suppose that the auto market is hurt by an increase in the length of time people use their car before replacing them. What are the effect of this change on GDP, unemployment, the government budget deficit and interest rate?,17.3 Demand and supply shock
10、s,17.4 Federal Government Policy,Demand-side policy and supply-side policy Demand-side policy include: Fiscal Policy Tax rate and Government spending Direct and immediate effect Monetary Policy Manipulation of the money supply to influence interest rate (short term and long term effect?) Tools of mo
11、netary policy Open market operations Discount lending Reserve requirements Indirect and lagging effect,Federal Government Policy Continued,Supply-side Policy -fisical policy -Lower marginal taxes and less regulation -Expenditure on education, infrastructure, and research,17.4 Federal Government Poli
12、cy,Review question: Suppose the government is applying an expansionary monetary policy by increasing money supply and reducing the interest rate, describe the possible effect on the following industries: Gold mining Construction,17.5 Business Cycles,Business cycle经济周期-recurring pattern of recession
13、and recovery -caused by the imbalance between demand and supply The transition points across cycles are called peaks and troughs A peak波峰 is the transition from the end of an expansion to the start of a contraction A trough波谷 occurs at the bottom of a recession just as the economy enters a recovery,
14、Figure 17.3 Business cycle,Capacity utilization rate: 生产能力利用率,GDP annual rate,Industrial production index: durable and nondurables,Industrial production index: Consumer goods,Shaded area represents recessions,中国经济周期1998-2010,What do you think about the business cycle in China?,17.5 Business Cycles C
15、yclical and defensive industries,Different industries with different performance at each stage of the cycle Cyclical industries周期性行业 -high sensitivity to business cycle -high beta Noncyclical/defensive industries防御性行业 -low sensitivity to business cycle -low beta Implications for investors?,How can w
16、e determine we are at which stage of the cycle? Leading indicators先行指标 tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy Avg. weekly hours of production workers S&P 500 M2 Coincident Indicators同步指标 - indicators that tend to change directly with the economy Industrial production Manufacturing and trade sales Lagging Indicators后滞指标 - indicators that tend to follow the lag economic performance Ratio of trade inventories to sales Change in index of labor cost per u
