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1、? ? ? ?7Table of contentsAcknowledgements.5 Executive Summary.11The various aspects of energy security policy.12Measuring resource concentration as a driver of energy security.13Case studies.15Results from the reference scenario .15Results from the policy cases .17Conclusion.191Premise for an integr
2、ated energy policy.21The role of government in liberalised energy markets .21 Historic energy policy drivers.23 Climate change and energy security interactions.24 Scope and outline.252The nature of climate change and energy security policy interactions.27 Climate change and its mitigation.27 Untangl
3、ing energy security.32 Assessing climate change and energy security policy interactions.38 Summary .433New tools to measure the energy security implications of resource concentration.45 Measuring the price component of energy security.45 Measuring the physical availability component of energy securi
4、ty.59 Summary .624Energy security and climate change policy drivers: a reference scenario.65 Fuel mix.66 Carbon dioxide emissions.70 Price component of energy security.72 Physical availability component of energy security.84 Summary .888 8TABLE OF CONTENTS5Energy security and climate change policy i
5、nteractions: exploratory policy cases.91 Policy-induced changes in the electricity sector.92 Policy-induced changes in road transport . 104 Summary . 1126Discussion. 115 Methodology . 115 Case study results. 116 Missing pieces . 1167Annex I: A review of existing quantitative approaches. 119 Measurin
6、g diversity. 119 Import dependence. 123 Hybrid approaches. 125 Summary . 1278Annex II: ESIpricecalculation input data - Reference scenario analysis, 2004, 2030. 1299References. 141List of figuresFigure 1Emissions, concentration and temperature changes corresponding to different stabilisation levels
7、for CO2concentrations.29Figure 2Projection of world energy-related CO2emissions in the IEA World Energy Outlook reference and alternative policy scenario .31Figure 3Average exploration and development costs versus proven oil reserves in Middle East and North Africa countries.37Figure 4World oil supply disruptions.37Figure 5Causal links in the climate change cycle .42Figure 6Fossil fuels share of world TPES and final consumption by sector, 2002.50Figure 7Average monthly
