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1、Innovationand TechnologyTransferFramework for a Global Climate DealShane Tomlinson, Pelin Zorlu and Claire LangleyAn E3G report with contributions from Chatham HouseNovember 2008About E3GE3G is an independent, non-profit European organisation operating in the public interest to accelerate theglobal
2、transition to sustainable development. E3G builds cross-sectoral coalitions to achieve carefullydefined outcomes, chosen for their capacity to leverage change. E3G works closely with like-mindedpartners in government, politics, business, civil society, science, the media, public interest foundations
3、 andelsewhere. More information is available at www.e3g.orgAbout Chatham HouseChatham House is one of the worlds leading institutes for analysis of international issues. It is anindependent organisation that brings together people from government, politics, NGOs, business, theacademic world and the
4、media to be at the forefront of developments in an ever-changing and increasinglycomplex world. The organisation has a strong track record in carrying out research and facilitatingmeetings and processes and that enables governments and other actors to address major challenges on theinternational age
5、nda.Third Generation Environmentalism (E3G)4th floor, In Tuition House210 Borough High StreetLondon SE1 1JXTel: +44 (0)20 7234 9880Fax: +44 (0)20 7234 0851www.e3g.org E3G/Chatham House 2008This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 License.You are free
6、to:Copy, distribute, display, and perform the work.Make derivative works.under the following conditions:You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor.You may not use this work for commercial purposes.If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute
7、 the resulting work only under alicense identical to this one.For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work.Any of these conditions can be waived if you get permission from the copyright holder.The Royal Institute of International AffairsChatham House10
8、St. Jamess SquareLondon SW1Y 4LETel: +44 (0)20 7957 5700Fax: +44 (0)20 7957 5710www.chathamhouse.org.ukContentsAcknowledgments6Executive Summary71Reframing the low-carbon innovation challenge19 Technology urgency19 Avoiding lock-in to carbon intensive development pathways23 What types of innovation
9、do we need?25 Low carbon innovation is a global public good28 Multilateralactionshouldhelpcorrectpolicyfailureatthenationallevel29 Key conclusions322Scale of the challenge delivering a 2C world34 Scenario timeframes39 Technology options40 Shifting investment45 Support for R delaying global peaking b
10、y 20 years would increase the probability of 4C to 10%.2Meeting these goals poses a unique public policy challenge: delivery of new technolo- giesandmassiveshiftsofinvestmentonaglobalscaleinsideaspecifictimeframe.The urgency of developing new technology is compounded by the existing global energy sy
11、stem investment cycle. The next 20 years will see an unprecedented increase in energyinvestment as developed countriesreplace power plants built inthe 1960sand 70s, and rapidly industrialising economies accelerate their construction of modern energy systems. The US, Europe and China will each build
12、around 800-1,000GW of newpowerstationsby2030.Concernsoverenergysecurityandpricesarealsodriving defensive investments in high carbon sources, such as tar sands and coal-to-liquids.Failure to provide workable low carbon alternatives for these investments will mean muchoftheworldbecomes“lockedin”tocarb
13、onintensivedevelopment.IEAscenarios to meet the 2C target require power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to makeup20%ofglobalpowerinvestmentupto2030;from2030allnewpowerplants in developed countries will need to be zero-carbon. However, there is currently no commercial scale CCS demonstra
14、tion plants planned to be in operation before 2015, makingthisschedulehighlyunlikely.Evenunderanoptimistictechnologicalscenario the IEA estimates that 15% of existing fossil fuel plant - around 350 GW - needs to be retired before the end of their economic lifetime. Similar issues exist in all major
15、emitting sectors: energy, transport, industry, infrastructure and buildings.3While these scenarios require only an 18% increase in investment over business as usual, they imply a huge investment shift from high to low carbon technologies.4The additionalinvestmentneeds incleanenergy technologies ande
16、nergy efficiencyare18 times the current level of investment in these areas. A significant amount of theInnovation and Technology TransferExecutive Summary71Barker et al., 20072Meinshausen, 20053IEA, 2008a4IEAs BLUE Map Scenario in IEA (2008a)additional $45 trillion investment needed to 2050, around 70%, will occur in the transport sector as it shifts to more expensive low carbon vehicles with lower fuel costs.Avoiding carbon lock-in will require countries to immediately adopt low
