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1、上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical Center上汽自主开发应对全球资源紧缺现状的思考Consideration of SAIC R&D in Dealing with the Global Shortage of Energy SAIC Motor Technical CenterPresented at FEV PT Conferences September 19. 2008 ShanghaiDate1上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterMotivation qShortage of energy s
2、ources leads to customers demand on high FE vehicles and mandatory CAFE/CO2 regulations, which changed the global environment for automotive industry.Oil Price per barrel Take lessons: qUnder this condition, vehicle FE becomes a critical issue for an automaker to survive.Chrysler, Ford in troubleThe
3、 Big Three in troubleDate2上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterqSAICs R&D targetOutline qTransportation energy sources that would be available in the next 30 yearsqThe mainstream PT products of passenger cars in the next 30 yearsqThe route to achieve the targetDate3上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR T
4、echnical CenterR&D Target qSAICs R&D target is to reduce the Corporative Averaged Fuel Consumption in the next 30 years, to meet the mandatory CAFE/CO2 regulations.US & EU mandatory CAFE/CO2 regulationsFC (L/100km) Year Date4上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterImportance of R&D target oil pri
5、ce, global warmingqScenario if OEMs R&D target is unclear:customer needs on high FE vehiclemandatory CAFE/CO2 regulationsFE become key factor for an OEM to survive no time & resources to improve vehicle FELow FE results in market share dropwork on projects not usable in 30 yrsbattery car is unable f
6、or mass productionnew energy source not available in next 30 yrs further loss of market share due to low FEbankruptDate5上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterUse New Energy Sources? qCould we use any new/clean energy source in the next 30 years for transportation?2H2 + O2 2H2O2H2O 2H2 + O2 A ge
7、nius idea, but Producing electricity or H2 requires energy. But, where to get the energy?It is still unclear what energy sources would be available for largely use in the next 50 years to replace petroleum and become the primary transportation energy sources.Date6上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical
8、 CenterCoalqCoal? Using coal to produce electricity or fuel, such as DME, would increase CO2.Rely on Alternative Fuel? Plug inEVmore CO2 fuelAlternative fuel vehicle more CO2 qCorn, bean ? Constrained by shortage of food.qOthers, such as wood? The potential quantity is constrained. Date7上海汽车集团股份有限公司
9、技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterAvailable Energy Sources qUranium fission energy can replace coal to produce electricity, but is constrained by available uranium.Transportation energy in the next 30 years:Nuclear EnergyqDiplogen fusion energy can provide adequate energy, but diplogen fusion control i
10、s not ready yet.qOther energy sources, such as solar energy, wind, bio-fuels, could only provide a small portion of the transportation energy needed.Other EnergyqIn the next 30 years, the primary transportation energy source would still be petroleum. Fuel oilDate8上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical
11、 CenterMainstream Products qAnalysis of what would the mainstream PT products in the next 30 years is critical for SAIC to allocate R&D resources to achieve the R&D target. qPotential products of future fuel-oil powertrains include:Diesel engineHybridGasoline engineDate9上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Te
12、chnical CenterDiesel for Passenger Cars? qDiesel cars in China is constrained by fuel supply:Shortage of diesel fuel in China is more severe than gasoline.Hence Diesel cars cannot be mainstream products.PetroleumDiesel fuelGasoline fuelOil refining: (in China) Shortage is still more severe in China.
13、 12.3Oil refining ratio of diesel fuel to gasoline in China is already high (2.3:1), hard to increase.Date10上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterMore Problems on Diesel Cars qPM and NOx in diesel engine exhaust gases are more difficult to remove.EURO IIIEURO VEURO IIIEURO IVEURO IVEURO VPM (mg
14、/km)NOx (mg/km)DieselDieselgasolinegasolinePM emissionsNOx emissionsqTo meet the emission regulations, cost and fuel consumption of diesel engine will further increase.Date11上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterDiesel FE vs. GasolineqIn 2004, fuel consumption/CO2 of diesel cars are lower than
15、gasoline cars by 11% (EU ACEA).Diesel 1.92.0L:BMW 320dBMW 320tdAlfa 156 JTDVW passatVW Golf GTI-TDIDiesel 1.92.0L:BMW 320dBMW 320tdAlfa 156 JTDVW passatVW Golf GTI-TDIGasoline 2.0L PFI:BMW 318iHonda S2000Honda StreamOpel X20XEVRenault MeganeToyota AvensisGasoline 2.0L PFI:BMW 318iHonda S2000Honda St
16、reamOpel X20XEVRenault MeganeToyota AvensisBMEP (bar)BMEP (bar)BSFC (g/kWh)BSFC (g/kWh)1500 rpm2500 rpm12%9%qAt the same load and speed, fuel consumption of 2.0L diesel engines are lower than 2.0L gasoline engines by 9%-13%.Date12上海汽车集团股份有限公司技术中心SAIC MOTOR Technical CenterHybrid Vehicles qHybrid has the highest potential to improve FE.-50%HypotheticalFC reductionHybrid: qThe range of FE improvement is
