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1、21 July 2020Equity Research Asia PacificGlobal TechnologyCloud computing: The next frontierTechnology | Connections SeriesConnections SeriesFigure 1: Cloud capex a new tech driver the past decade with legs for further growthThe Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages ourInternet Companycapex US$m
2、n$30,000$24,000$18,000$12,000$6,000$01Q113Q11-$6,000Internet Companycapex YoY125%100%75%50%25%0%1Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q191Q20-25%exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients.1Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q16
3、Top 7 capex2nd Tier capexCloud Capex YoYCloud service YoYInternet service YoY Source: Company data, IDC, Credit Suisse estimatesFrom data creation to data analytics: a major inflection driving structural growth in the data centre. While a solid 26% CAGR for data cited by Cisco is an old theme, what
4、is new is our ability to monetise data, with AI and Machine Learning being the first technology to lower analytics costs, potentially unlocking the potential for 99.5% of data that has remained dark, leading to an accelerating application workload growth and an accelerating compute TAM. We estimate
5、a US$90 bn compute TAM will accelerate from a 3-5% CAGR to 10-15% CAGR over the next five years. While we may see a 1-2 quarter capacity digestion in late 2020, following five quarters of strong data centre builds, the purpose of this report is to define and explore long-term trends and the supply c
6、hain underpinning the move to a data economy as a secular multi-year tailwind to growth.Cloud as a new ecosystem driver. Cloud IT infrastructure spending is delivering a 10%CAGR, vs -1.2% CAGR for traditional IT infrastructure, driven by the rising number of connected devices and video applications,
7、 proliferation of cloud services for enterprise and consumer, and accelerating AI data analytics. The rise of hyperscale and cloud service providers has supported the rise of an ODM Direct model, rising 10x from 2011-19 and growing from low single digits to 24% of servers and 6% of networking. We ex
8、pect growth to continue, with cloud servers maintaining +15%/+14% YoY unit growth in 2020-21, well above -2%/+9% overall server growth, supporting outgrowth for the ODM Direct hardware makers, merchant silicon and components with leverage to the data centre theme.Supply chain opportunities. Key hard
9、ware beneficiaries include ODMs building out Open Compute Project (Quanta, Wiwynn), and hardware components supporting data centre design changes (Delta, FII, Hon Hai, Shengyi). Within semiconductors, foundry and fabless gain in HPC (TSMC, Aspeed), memory (Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix) from rising d
10、ata centre storage and IC design service companies (Alchip) supporting system company and China upstarts designing complex HPC chips. In the US semis our picks are NVIDIA, Intel, AMD and Xilinx. While the shift to cloud infrastructure is a negative for US Hardware OEMs, IBM and NetApp are better pos
11、itioned in a hybrid-first world. Amongst datacentre operators, we like Equinix, Digital Realty and Switch (globally) and GDS and VNET (China) and in Japan we prefer Anritsu (5G) and Renasas (data centre and auto). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST
12、 CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity
13、 of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.21 July 2020Focus charts and tablesFigure 2: Data growthself-perpetuating dynamicFigure 3: Global cloud infrastructure to deliver a 10% CAGRSource: Credit SuisseSource: Company data, ID
14、C Credit SuisseFigure 4: Cloud services 21% CAGR to US$419 bn by 2022Figure 5: Public cloud to surpass enterprise servers in CY20Source: Company data, IDC, Credit SuisseSource: IDC, Credit SuisseFigure 6: Cloud capex projected for teens growth in 20/21Figure 7: ODM Direct model enabled by hyperscale
15、rs/CSPsSource: Company data, Credit SuisseSource: Company dataFigure 8: Cloud builds strong in 2020/21 even with a late year pauseNT$bn/BMC (mn)1Q202Q203Q20E4Q20E1Q21E2Q21E3Q21E4Q21EInventec12.420.022.018.016.022.024.022.0Quanta35.037.947.647.642.043.254.755.2Wiwynn35.152.155.356.653.664.867.665.6MiTAC6.89.09.28.88.510.611.410.8Accton5.56.17.07.86.67.99.38.3Total94.8125.0141.1138.7126.7148.5167.0161.9
