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1、153 CHAPTER 19 MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND COORDINATION UNDER FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES Chapter Organization The Case For Floating Exchange Rates Monetary Policy Autonomy Symmetry Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers The Case Against Floating Exchange Rates Discipline Destabilizing Speculation and Mon
2、ey Market Disturbances Injury to International Trade and Investment Uncoordinated Economic Policies The Illusion of Greater Autonomy Case Study Exchange Rate Experience Between the Oil Shocks 1973 1980 The First Oil Shock and Its Effects 1973 1975 Revising the IMF s Charter 1975 1976 The Weak Dollar
3、 1976 1979 The Second Oil Shock 1979 1980 Macroeconomic Interdependence Under a Floating Rate Case Study Disinflation Growth Crisis and Recession 1980 2001 Disinflation and the 1981 1983 Recession Fiscal Policies the Current Account and the Resurgence of Protectionism From the Plaza to the Louvre an
4、d Beyond Trying to Manage Exchange Rates Global Slump Once Again Recovery Crisis and Slowdown What Has Been Learned Since 1973 Monetary Policy Autonomy Symmetry The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer Discipline Destabilizing Speculation International Trade and Investment 154 Policy Coordinatio
5、n Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries Directions for Reform Summary Appendix International Policy Coordination Failures CHAPTER OVERVIEW The floating exchange rate system in place since 1973 was not in contrast with the Bretton Woods system well planned before its inception In
6、stead it has developed as an ad hoc system muddling through the various shocks with which the world economy has had to contend Disillusion with economic performance since 1973 has often fueled demands for alternative international monetary arrangements This chapter sets forth the case for and agains
7、t floating exchange rates and considers the evidence concerning the performance of the international exchange rate system since 1973 A set of theoretical arguments for and against floating exchange rates frame the discussion of this chapter Proponents of a floating exchange rate regime cite as its a
8、dvantages the autonomy it gives to monetary policy the symmetry of adjustment under floating and the automatic stabilization which floating rates provide when aggregate demand shocks occur Critics fault floating rates on the grounds that they do not impose enough discipline on governments or promote
9、 economic policy coordination because of alleged detrimental effects on international trade and investment and because floating exchange rates may be susceptible to harmful destabilizing speculation The DD AA model first presented in Chapter 16 is used to demonstrate that money market shocks are les
10、s disruptive under a fixed exchange rate regime than under a floating regime while output market shocks are less disruptive under a floating exchange rate regime This result is important in considering the relative attractiveness of floating exchange rates in face of the first oil shock in 1973 This
11、 shock led to stagflation simultaneous recession and inflation It is unlikely that a fixed exchange rate system would have survived without widespread realignments and speculative attacks Industrial countries chose expansionary macro policies and recovery from the recession of 1974 was underway in m
12、ost of these countries by the first half of 1975 The success with which the floating exchange rate regime allowed countries to adjust to the first oil shock prompted a call by the leaders of the main industrial countries for the IMF to formally recognize the new arrangement The IMF 155 directors hee
13、ded this by amending the Fund s Articles of Agreement to recognize the new reality of floating rates Floating exchange rates enabled countries to pursue divergent expansionary policies after the first oil shock This advantage of floating exchange rates proved to be a disadvantage as the recovery of
14、1974 1975 turned into the slowdown of 1976 American policies more expansionary than those pursued by Germany and Japan weakened the dollar pushed the U S current account into deficit and contributed to a resurgence of inflation in the United States The second oil shock promoted fears of higher infla
15、tion leading to restrictive monetary policies that plunged the world economy in 1981 into the deepest recession since the Great Depression This chapter also discusses the way in which two large countries economies affect one another examining the global effects of fiscal and monetary policy in the 1
16、980s and 1990s This discussion incorporates feedback effects from policy in one economy to economic performance in the other A fiscal expansion in either country increases output in both countries A monetary expansion in the domestic country however raises domestic output but by making the foreign currency more expensive lowers foreign output In the text the ideas are used to analyze the effects of U S monetary and fiscal policy after 1980 particularly the Volcker disinflation and the Reagan fis
