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1、 Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊伟李俊伟 项目管理者联盟项目管理者联盟, MYPM.NET更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资料，尽在.！TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM
2、 nPPM, Process and Techniques2TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe Emergence of Project Portfolio Managementn1952, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), Harry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selectionn1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Pr
3、ize, dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial marketsn1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and management of IT projects.n1990s, a broader use of ideas of portfolio management n1998, John Th
4、orp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.nPresent, portfolio management as central elements of good investment management3TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeePo
5、rtfolio Management, the overall pictureFocus(Strategic Planning )Source: PM Solutions, Portfolio Management, Dianne BridgesSelect(Portfolio Management)Manage(Project Management)4TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeContentnEmergence of Project
6、Portfolio Management (PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM, Process and Techniques更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资料，尽在.！5TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe Old Philosophy about Portfoliou Dont put all your eggs in one basket.
7、uRisk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.6TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeReturn and Risk in Financial Marketexpected returnstandard deviation (%)capital appreciationgrowth of income0 6 12 18 24 30 362018161412108642
8、0incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernment bondslong-termcorporate bondslarge company stockssmallcompanystocksstabilityof principal7TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe Role of Combining SecuritiesuThe expect
9、ed return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资料，尽在.！8The Role of Combining Securities10two-securityportfolio risk= riskA + riskB +interactiveriskuThe total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among t
10、he components.TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe Role of Combining Securitiesexpected returnrisk betterperformanceu A portfolio dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return, or if no portfolio with
11、 the same expected return has less risk.u The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.10TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe Efficient Frontier : Optimum Diversification
12、of Risky Assetsexpected returnrisk (standard deviation of returns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficient frontiernThe optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier11TalentAllianz Management & Technology C
13、o. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe Efficient Frontier vs Naive Diversificationu As portfolio size increases,total portfolio risk, on average, declines. After a certain point, however, the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.total riskNon-
14、diversifiablerisknumber of securitiesu Naive diversification is the random selectionof portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.12TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeRisk Reduction with DiversificationNumber of Sec
15、uritiesSt. DeviationMarket RiskUnique Risk13TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeenMarket or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexnUnsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro factor or m
16、arket indexnTotal risk = Systematic + UnsystematicComponents of Risk14TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeTwo-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations = 113%8E(r)St. Dev12%20% = .3 = -1 = -115TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Lt
17、d. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeenRelationship depends on correlation coefficientn-1.0 +1.0nThe smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potentialnIf= +1.0, no risk reduction is possiblePortfolio Risk/Return, Correlation Effects16TalentAllianz Management & Technology C
18、o. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeStructuring a Portfolio : Asset Allocationattitudetoward riskneed forreturnrealizedreturnand riskwith thepassageof timestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividual choice asset class mix investment results更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资
19、料，尽在.！17TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM, Process and Techniques18TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技
20、术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeWhat is project portfolio managementnPortfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the costs, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio. nThe art of pr
21、oject portfolio management is: doing the right thing, selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.19TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeePortfolio Management is: nDefining goals and objectives clea
22、rly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achievenUnderstanding, accelerating, and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elsenIdentifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk select a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk, will no
23、t exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsnMonitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectivesnAchieving a desired objective have the
24、 confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made20TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeePortfolio Management is NotnDoing a series of project specific calculations and analyses, such a
25、s return on investment, benefit-cost analysis, net present value, payback period, rate of return, and then adjusting them all to account for risk. these are project specificnCollecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organiza
26、tional reporting requirement.21TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThe benefits of Portfolio ManagementnHaving a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projectsnPlacing resources where it matters, redu
27、cing wasteful spendingnLinking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goalsnEstablishing logic, reasoning, and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisionsnEstablishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels22TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰
28、联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM, Process and Techniques23TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeProject Portfolio M
29、anagement, Process & Technique nFour stepsnProject Evaluation MatrixnEvaluation Criteria nExamples24TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeStep 1: Define the PortfolionFirst, establish the overall portfolio mission. This mission statement will be
30、 used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.nThe mission statement can be simple, like:The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.25TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeStep
31、 2: Gather the ProjectsnNow, gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio. nThis may not be the list you already have. Some projects, including duplicate efforts, may be underway in other parts of the organization.26TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理
32、技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeStep 3: Begin WeedingnOnce the project list is established, begin weeding the list down. Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts. Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area. Some proj
33、ects may be under your wing but do not fit in the mission area. Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.27TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeStep 4: Begin EvaluatingnOnce the portfolio list is set, begin evaluating each proje
34、ct to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.nUsing the four-quadrant matrix here, evaluate the projects against two major criteria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project?What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?28TalentAllianz Management & Technol
35、ogy Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighProject Evaluation Matrix29TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeUsing the MatrixnThe matrix is used as a s
36、coring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project.nProjects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.nProjects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inc
37、lusion and balancing the portfolio.30TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighMatrix Decision RegionsProjects to remove from the portfolioProjects to keep in the portfol
38、io更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资料，尽在.！31TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeEvaluation CriterianThe Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria: Risk and Benefit.nFive sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time (Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organiz
39、ations (Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application (Technological Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project (Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Implementation and Maintenance CostsnFive sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing applicationProjects Impact o
40、n Cross-Functional ActivitiesProjects Impact on Improving Internal CultureProjects Impact on Improving External Customer ServiceEstimated Benefit/Cost Ratio (Potential Savings or Profits)32TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeRisk Assessment Sc
41、orecard- illustrationRisk CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Risk Project ScoreHigh Risk Project ScoreSchedule Risk Assessment25%15Organizational Risk Assessment20%24Technological Risk Assessment20%17Risk of Not Doing Project25%41Project Support Costs10%14TOTAL RISK SCORES100%92633TalentAllianz Manag
42、ement & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeBenefits Assessment Scorecard - illustrationBenefit CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Benefit Project ScoreHigh Benefit Project ScorePotential User Base20%25Cross-Functional Improvements10%16Improving Corporate Culture20%26Imp
43、roving Customer Service25%05Benefit/Cost Ratio25%15TOTAL RISK SCORES100%62734TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeePlot the Project on the MatrixQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighOur Low Risk/ Low Ben
44、efit Project Might Be Rejected or DelayedOur High Risk/ High Benefit Project Might Be Approved35TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeWhat is the differencenPortfolio Management in the financial marketnProject management更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资料，尽在.！36Tal
45、entAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeQuestions and Answers37TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George LeeThank You!李俊伟李俊伟Contact at: george.leeTalentAllianz.Room 318, JinOu Plaza, #2 An Zhen Li,Chaoy
46、ang, Beijing, China 100029Tel +86-10 6443 7361. 6443 7362Fax +86-10 6443 7363更多培训资料，尽在更多培训资料，尽在.！38TalentAllianz Management & Technology Co. Ltd. 翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司, George Lee9、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。2024/9/172024/9/17Tuesday, September 17, 202410、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。2024/9/172024/9/172024/9/179/17/20
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