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1、Intermediate Macroeconomics81Real v.s. Nominal I-RateThe Fisher equationThe Fisher equation1 percentage pointI1 percentage point This one-for-one relation between the inflation rate and nominal i-rate is called the Fisher effect. 2Nominal Interest RatenThe quantity theory + the Fisher equationthe ra
2、te of money supply in the rate of inflation in the nominal interest rate (Keynesian Chain?)3Nominal Interest Rate4Ex Ante v.s. Ex PostIs high inflation rate always accompanied by high i-rate? 5贷款贷款存款存款CPICPI（当年）（当年）贷款贷款存款存款CPICPI（当年）（当年）91.04.2191.04.218.648.647.567.563.43.4200020000.40.492926.46.42
3、00120010.70.793.05.1593.05.159.369.369.189.1814.714.702.02.2102.02.215.315.311.981.98-0.8-0.893.07.1193.07.1110.9810.9810.9810.98200320031.21.2949424.124.104.10.2904.10.295.585.582.252.253.93.995.01.0195.01.0110.9810.9817.117.1200520051.81.895.07.0195.07.0112.0612.0606.04.2806.04.285.855.852.82.896.
4、05.0196.05.0110.9810.989.189.188.38.306.08.1906.08.196.126.122.522.5296.08.2396.08.2310.0810.087.477.4707.03.1807.03.186.396.392.792.79二月同比二月同比2.72.797.10.2397.10.238.648.645.675.672.82.807.05.1907.05.196.576.573.063.0698.03.2598.03.257.927.925.225.22-0.8-0.807.07.2107.07.216.846.843.333.33二季度同比二季度同
5、比4.44.498.07.0198.07.016.936.934.774.7707.08.2207.08.227.027.023.63.698.12.0798.12.076.396.393.783.7807.09.1507.09.157.297.293.423.42八月同比八月同比6.56.599.06.1099.06.105.855.852.252.25-1.4-1.4一年期存贷款基准利率一年期存贷款基准利率 & CPI变动变动 （%）6Ex Ante v.s. Ex Post real i-rate朋友向你借1000元，商量好一年后本息合计1100元。那么你的实际收益率（本次借贷的实际利率
6、）为多少？现在通胀率为3%，事前r (ex ante real interest rate) =7%此一年通胀率为8%，事后r (ex post real interest rate) =2%7Ex Ante v.s. Ex Post real i-rate名义利率更多取决于预期通胀率而非现实通胀率只是通胀一般有持续性，所以高通胀常伴随高利率未预期的通胀不一定伴随高利率8The Demand for MoneynThe cost of holding money9InflationnInflation: The overall increase in pricesnHyperinflation
7、: extraordinary high inflation (inflation rate =50% / month)10Inflationn2007新年伊始，老板宣布给所有员工加薪5%。全公司欢声雷动。n截止8月居民消费者价格指数同比上升6.5%。感叹evil inflation夺走了你新增的收入。n今年年底，老板决定再次给员工加薪5%，你会作何反应？11The Social Costs of Inflationn nUnexpected inflation1.Redistribute wealth among individuals2.Hurt individuals on fixed
8、pensions3.Psychological costs (most people are risk-averse)12The Social Costs of Inflationn nExpected inflation1.Shoe-leather cost2.Menu cost3.Possible lower relative price4.Tax liability5.Confusion in value measuring13How To Stop a HyperinflationnIf the quantity theory were true i does not affect m
9、oney demand stabilize money supple = stabilize P 14How To Stop a HyperinflationnHowever, since the Fisher effect holds Stabilize money supply (growth rate of MS=0)Expected inflation rateMoney demand Money supply is fixedThe value of money Price of all other goods (easy to fall into deflation)15How T
10、o Stop a HyperinflationnHow to stop a hyperinflation without causing deflation with Fisher Effect being true?16How To Stop a Hyperinflation PiM0rTimeEnd of inflation17Natural Rate of UnemploymentnDefinitionsa)Natural rate of unemployment: the average rate of unemployment around which the economy flu
11、ctuatesb)Misery index: the sum of inflation and unemployment rates 18Frictional Unemployment (1st reason)nIt takes time to match workers and jobse.g. technology improvement new production processes or new varieties of goods different locations and sectors 19Frictional Unemployment (1st reason)nPubli
12、c policy implicationUnemployment insuranceReduce uncertainty about income so that economically and mentallyBetter matching HoweverHoweverless pressure to search for new jobMore likely to turn down unattractive offers20Wait Unemployment (2nd reason)nWage rigidity- the failure of the wage to adjust un
13、til LS=LD W/PLReal WageSDE21a)Minimum-wage lawsWait Unemployment (2nd reason)LReal WageSDEMin. wW/P22Wait Unemployment (2nd reason)b)Unions and collective bargaining The wages of workers in the union are determined not by the eqm of S and D but by collective bargaining between union leaders and firm
14、 management (wages is higher than the eqm level)23Wait Unemployment (2nd reason)nWages for non-unionized workers due to union in other firms unemployment ratenInsiders & outsiders -outsiders bear the cost of higher wages24Wait Unemployment (2nd reason)c)Efficiency wagesi.Nutritionii.Labor turnover r
15、ateiii.Average quality of the work forceiv.Moral hazard problem25Patterns of UnemploymentnVariation in demographic groupsUnemployment rate by demographic groups 2000 U.S. (%)Age White maleWhite femaleBlack maleBlack female16-1912.310.426.423.020+2.83.17.06.326Patterns of Unemployment27Patterns of Unemployment28Patterns of Unemployment29
