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1、2013 年 1 月 31 日中国 A 股策略坚持顺周期偏好; 上调沪深 300目标点位 9%至至 3000 点 (摘要摘要)证券研究报告沪深 300 目标上调至 3000 点，受盈利增长 11%以及估值扩张以及估值扩张 5%推动推动我们仍然对 A 股持正面看法，并将 2013 年底沪深 300 指数目标点位从之前的2,750 点上调至 3,000 点，对应 16%的上涨空间，尽管未来股市波动性可能加大（自 2012 年 11 月 29 日我们推出 2013 年策略展望报告之后沪深 300 指数已经上涨了 21%）。展望未来，我们预计盈利增长将起到更加重要的推动作用，16%的潜在回报是受到每股
2、盈利增长 11%（之前为 9%），以及市盈率略微扩张 5%至11.2 倍（之前为 10.7 倍，仍远低于 2008 年股市触底以来 13.6 倍的市盈率均值）的推动。宏观经济、盈利、估值和流动性仍对股市有利最近 PMI、工业增加值、出口数据等宏观经济指标总体向好，进一步支撑了我们宏观经济团队高于市场的 2013 年 GDP 增速预测（我们的预测为 8.2%，市场为8.0%）。2013 年一/二/三季度 GDP 同比增速将进一步改善至 8.1%/8.2%/8.4%，这意味着盈利方面将可能带来更多惊喜，特别是部分基本面较好的周期性板块。基金仓位仍然合理，个人投资者新开账户数仍在谷底，QFII/RQ
3、FII 额度加速增加，这些因素都继续为股市提供着流动性支持。同时，由于经济尚处温和复苏阶段且产能过剩持续存在，通胀压力到达过热水平尚需时日。坚持顺周期偏好；资本品板块取代房地产板块进入高配名单鉴于宏观经济的复苏，2013 年上半我们仍然青睐顺周期板块，考虑到改革的潜在进程，下半年我们偏好消费板块。我们建议投资者在上半年逐步从早周期向部分有基本面和估值支撑的晚周期板块转换。我们将房地产板块由高配调至标配（2012 年以来的超额收益约为 30%），并将资本品板块上调至高配，因其基本面有望在未来几个季度逐步改善。我们目前建议高配资本品、建筑材料（水泥）、券商、保险、媒体、食品饮料板块，仍然低配煤炭、
4、钢铁、化工板块，因为这些板块的基本面/估值不具吸引力。*全文翻译随后提供我们预测的 2013 年沪深 300 指数走势孙贤兵+86(10)6627-3187 北京高华证券有限责任公司执业证书编号: S1420510120003刘陈杰+86(10)6627-3324 北京高华证券有限责任公司执业证书编号: S14205110700023,100CSI300 Index Path Forecasts2,9002,7002,5002,750(+6%, 1Q13)2,900(+12%, 1H 2013)3,000(+16%, end-2013 )2,3002,100Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12
5、Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13资料来源：高华证券研究、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。北京高华证券有限责任公司22013 年 1 月 31 日Stay positive on favorable macro, earnings, valuation, and liquidityOv
6、erview: CSI300 to 3,000, driven by 11% EPS and 5% valuationWe are raising our CSI300 2013 yearend target to 3,000, up 9% from our previous target at 2,750,implying 16% potential upside. We expect 11% EPS growth (prior 9%) for the CSI300 index in2013E and our yearend target 3,000 is based on 11.2X 20
7、13E P/E (5% expansion from current10.7X), well below the average 13.8X since the 2008 trough level. We note the A-share marketmay have already partially priced in Chinas macro recovery and slightly lifted hopes (but themarket remains very skeptical as a whole) on Chinas potential economic reforms, g
8、iven the 21%gains for the CSI300 index since our 2013 strategy outlook report, Recovering mildly, with hopeson reform, dated November 29, 2012.However, we believe the market has not fully priced in the economic recovery and has not beenoverly bullish on Chinas reform process. Despite potentially hig
9、her index volatility, we expectfurther upside potential in 2013E, on the back of: 1) continuing improving macro/earningsimprovement with more bullish views than consensus; 2) still-attractive valuations; 3) continuedfavorable liquidity support; and 4) any meaningful progress on economic reforms.We c
10、ontinue to favor pro-cyclical sectors that benefit more from a cyclical recovery than defensivesectors, and we suggest a gradual shift from earlier-cyclical sectors (such as property) toselective later-cyclical sectors (such as mid-stream manufacturing industries like capital goods orconstruction ma
11、terials like Cement) in 1H2013. Here we lock in the alpha generated for Property(10% since Nov 29, 2012, and 30% since early 2012), and downgrade to market weight. Weupgrade Capital Goods to overweight from market weight given potential improving fundamentals(details on page 10). Currently we sugges
12、t overweight Capital Goods (Machinery, RailwayEquipment), Construction Materials (Cement), Securities, Insurance, Media and F&B, andcontinue to underweight Coal, Steel, and Chemicals, mainly on weaker fundamentals.For the potential index path, we continue to expect front-loaded returns in 1H2013 wit
13、h a strongerGDP recovery and limited inflationary pressure. We forecast the CSI300 index to be 2,750 at end-1Q2013 (6% upside), 2,900 (12% upside) at end-2Q2013, and 3,000 (16% upside) at 2013Eyearend.Key risks for our views: Upside: 1) a better-than-expected economy with well-contained inflationand
14、 property prices; 2) better-than-expected reform progress; Downside:1) weaker-than-expected macro recovery; 2) faster-than-expected CPI and property priceincrease; 3) stricter-than-expected control on shadow banking; and 4) lack of reform progress.Exhibit 1: We forecast CSI300 index yearend target a
15、t 3,000, 16% potential upsideCSI300 IndexCurrent index levelBull caseBase caseBear caseIndex Target2013E Year-end2,5833,3303,0002,413Potentialupside/downside(%)2013E Year-endas of Jan. 24, 201329%16%-7%Earnings growth(%)2013E Year-end15%11%0%Target PE (12-mforward) (x)2013E Year-end12.0X11.2X10.0XSo
16、urce: WIND, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究(%)(%)8.28.1032013 年 1 月 31 日Macro: Recovery well on track, still favorable to equitiesWe have been holding the view that the macro backdrop is the most critical factor driving theequity markets. Since we published our
17、 2013E strategy outlook on September 29, 2012, the keymacro indicators (including PMIs, CPIs, IPs, exports, etc) have been generally trending positively,in line or slightly better than previously expected. Our China Economists slightly upgraded 2013EGDP growth to 8.2% from 8.1% on December 18, 2012,
18、 which is more upbeat than currentconsensus estimates at 8.0%.Looking forward, we expect a continued favorable macro backdrop, such as further improvementof quarterly yoy GDP growth from 7.9% in 4Q2012 to 8.1%/8.2%/8.4% in 1-3Q 2013 per oureconomists estimates, will continue to provide fundamental s
19、upport to the equity market in termsof both earnings and valuation.In the meantime, CPI still looks manageable at an estimated c. 3% in 2013E, despite recent CPIacceleration in December 2012 (at 2.5%) on the back of rising vegetable prices due to coldweather. We do not expect inflation to become a m
20、ajor concern in 1H2013 (partially because ofthe overcapacity issue) as we believe inflation can be contained below the threshold of 3.5%-4%,above which we think it could potentially hurt economic growth and trigger potential policytightening.Exhibit 2: We expect a modest GDP recovery ahead andmore u
21、pbeat than consensusChina - Real GDP (% chg yoy)1413.8Exhibit 3: In the meantime, CPI situation seems still undercontrol below 3.5% at 2013 yearendChina - CPI (% chg yoy)98.08137121111.96546.3GSForecast1010.23.23.4987.9GSForecast8.48.23211.22.01.92.82.5WINDConsensusWIND7.4 Consensus7-16.56-2-1.52005
22、20062007200820092010201120122013200520062007200820092010201120122013Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.高华证券策略研究Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.GLIaccelerationSep-09Sep-10Sep-11Mar-10Mar-11Mar-09Mar-12Nov-09Nov-10Nov
23、-11Sep-12Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jan-09Jan-12Jul-09Jul-11Jul-12May-09May-10May-11Mar-05Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13May-12Nov-12-5642013 年 1 月
24、31 日Exhibit 4: GS Global Leading Indicator still impliesfavorable global backdropExhibit 5: Chinas inventory situation continues toimprove0.15RecoveryExpansion25Rmb bnUpstreamDownstream0.10July 2012Aug 2012Sept 2012200.050.00-0.05Jun 2012May 2012Oct 2012Nov 2012Dec 2012Jan 201315105-0.10April 2012Fe
25、b 20120-0.15March 2012-0.20ContractionSlowdown-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.4GLI growthSource: Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Exhibit 6: We expect better export outlook in 2013E, onback of global GDP recoverySource: NBS, CEIC, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global
26、ECS Research.Exhibit 7: Our Macro Bridge Index still points to positiveterritory, despite a moderating pace(%)5040China - Exports of Goods/Services (% chg yoy)World - Real GDP (% chg yoy, RHS)(%)GS Forecast5(%)70SHCOMP Index return (3-m return)Macro Bridge Index (2-m leadning)Correlation coefficient
27、 = 77%302043503021001010-10-10-1-20-302000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2-3-30-50Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.高华证券策略研究Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.Oct-08Dec-08Feb-09Apr-0
28、9Jun-09Aug-09Oct-09Dec-09Feb-10Apr-10Jun-10Aug-10Oct-10Dec-10Feb-11Apr-11Jun-11Aug-11Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Oil,gas&petrochemicalTextile&ApparelUtilitiesTransportationInfratructureOverall(ex.Financials)Non-ferrousmetal&OthersConsumerDurabl
29、esConstructionMaterials&OthersIT&equipment/componentsAuto&partsFood&beverageShipping&OthertransportationHotel&tourism&OthersCapitalGoodsSecurities&OthersTelecomConstruction&OtherIndustrialServicesInsurancePropertyBanksOverallCoalHealthCareRetailingAirlinesChemicalSteelMedia2835%30%52013 年 1 月 31 日Va
30、luation: Still attractive vs. historical levels or global peersUsing 2013E I/B/E/S EPS, our CSI300 index target of 3,000 implies a P/E of 11.2X (14.3X ex-banks), up from the current level of 10.7X (13.7X), which is a rebound from the December troughof 9.0X (11.8X). However, our target P/E is still w
31、ell below the average since the 2008 trough of13.8X (16.5X) and just slightly above the average minus one STD level of 9.7X (12.1X).Globally, the CSI 300 index also looks attractive at a 1.6X 2013E P/B and a 16% ROE vs. theglobal averages of 1.8X and 14%.Exhibit 8: We expect currently undemanding va
32、luationswill continue expansion with macro improvementExhibit 9: Global comparison also suggests favorablevaluations in China(X)302624IBES CSI300 12m fP/EIBES CSI300 12m fP/E exl banksIBES CSI300 12m fP/B (RHS)(X)3.53.02013EP/B3.02.5PhilippinesIndiaThailand22202.52.0MalaysiaU.SAustralia18Taiwan16+1
33、Stdev2.01.5Singapore EuropeHong KongChina14CSI300 avg. 13.6X13.7X121.6X1.5Japan10-1 Stdev10.7XGS yearend1.0Koreatarget: 11.2X81.00.5Attractive2013EROE(%)5791113151719212325Source: IBES, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.Source: IBES, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman S
34、achs Global ECSResearch.Exhibit 10: The CSI300 return since November seems mostly driven by valuation reversionrather than earningsCSI300 2012 performance decomposition by sector (from outlook publication to date)25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Earnings changeValuation changePrice performanceSource: WIND, Ga
35、o Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究Aug-11Aug-12Nov-10Aug-10May-11May-12Sep-12Jan-11 Feb-11Sep-11Jan-12 Feb-12Dec-10Jun-11Jul-10Apr-11Jun-12Jun-10Sep-10Mar-11Nov-11Dec-11Mar-12Apr-12Oct-10Jul-11Jul-12Nov-12Oct-11Oct-128020(Rmb bn)62013 年 1 月 31 日Earnings: Early signs
36、of positive improvementFollowing our economists 2012E/2013E GDP revision to 7.8%/8.2% (from 7.6%/8.1%), we havemodestly revised our 2012E/2013E EPS growth to 3%/11% (from prior 1%/9%) based on the GStop-down earnings model. The recent more frequent monthly industrial profit data points to apositive
37、direction for the earnings trend in 4Q2012. And the past few weeks WIND consensusestimates have shown signs of positive earnings revisions. Along with quarterly strengthening yoyGDP growth until 3Q2013, we expect upcoming earnings revisions are likely to be on the positiveside.Exhibit 11: We expect
38、3.0%/11.0%/12.5% for 2012-14EEPS growth from a top-down perspectiveExhibit 12: CSI300 profit growth may revise up, indicatedby SOE profit/NBS industrial profit growthTop-down Estimates2011A2012ENon-FinancialRevenue Growth (%)24.86.0Non-FinancialMargin (%)5.14.3EPS Growth(%)14.63.0Previous EPSgrowth(
39、Nov. 29, 2012)1.07060SASAC SOE Profit growthCSI300 profit growth exl financialsNBS industrial sectors profit growth502013E2014E9.29.64.74.911.012.59.012.54030Bottom-up Estimates(Wind Consensus)102011A24.85.114.60-102012E4.34.45.0-202013E2014E10.68.24.95.313.414.9-30Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities R
40、esearch, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 13: CSI300 consensus earnings appears to bebottoming outCSI300 earnings forecast based on WIND consensusSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 14: CSI300 earnings forecast revision sentimentjust turned posit
41、ive in January 2013CSI300 Index earnings revision sentiment3,000CSI300 Index (RHS)2,5002006E2011E2007E2012E2008E2013E2009E2014E2010E30%6,00020%5,0002,0001,50010%0%4,0003,000-10%1,0002,000-20%500-30%1,0000Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13-40%Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-120Jan-13S
42、ource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.高华证券策略研究Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch.Jun-07Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Jun-09Mar-10Dec-10Mar-11Mar-12Sep-12Dec-12Jun-08Jun-10Jun-11Jun-12Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec
43、-11120(%)72013 年 1 月 31 日Exhibit 15: CSI300 earnings forecast changes by sector(2013YTD)CSI300 Index earnings forecast changes (2013E)_Wind consensus(2013YTD)Exhibit 16: CSI300 may record improvement of earningsin 4Q2012E per WIND consensusEarnings growth YTD YoY (%)OverallSteelConstruction Material
44、s & Others0.6%2.6%100Overall (ex. Financials)IT&equipment/components0.6%BanksTransportation InfratructureOverallHealth CarePropertyOverall (ex. Financials)Oil,gas& petrochemicalInsuranceShipping&Other transportation0.4%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%806040TelecomRetailingMediaHotel &tourism&OthersT
45、extile&ApparelAirlinesSecurities& OthersChemical0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%200-202%-16%5%-7%Food&beverage0.0%Auto&partsUtilitiesCapital GoodsCoalConsumer DurablesNon-ferrous metal & OthersConstruction&Other Industrial Services0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-40-1%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%Source: Wind, G
46、ao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchLiquidity: Mutual fund positions lagging; retail inflows just startedFor domestic mutual funds, equities made up 80.5% of the holdings of active equity funds as of20
47、12 (namely, equity funds excluding indexed and ETF funds), up 2.7 ppt from 3Q12s 77.8%,and we expect further upside potential. Since 2003, equity holdings of actively managed fundshave ranged between 53.9% and 95.7%, and averaged 81%. We note some domesticinstitutional investors who were pretty skep
48、tical on either a China macro recovery or Chinasreform outlook in early 4Q2012 have gradually and partially become less negative, along withsustained macro data improvements in the past months and the recently more frequent emphasison reforms among Chinas senior leaders.Retail inflows appear to have
49、 just started moving back into the equity market, and weekly newinvestor account openings have shown early signs of a pickup in the past few weeks. Currentweekly accounts opened remain close to historical trough levels, suggesting further potentialupside.For foreign inflows, we have seen increasing
50、quota approval of QFII and RQFII investors, andtotal quota as of end-2012 reached Rmb303bn, 1.7% of China A-share total floatable market cap.Moreover, as the CSRC may continue to accelerate the QFII investing process (based on CSRCChairman Guo Shuqings comments in a recent speech, as reported by on
51、 Jan. 14,2013), we believe there is potential for a sharp increase in QFII/RQFII quotas over the long term.We acknowledge that this is more of a sentiment boost for now since this incremental portion isprobably small as the QFII/RQFII quota additions in 2012 accounted for only 0.5% of total markettu
52、rnover in 2012.Additionally, relatively high yields of wealth management products (including trust products) havebeen regarded as a potential dilution for equity inflows. However, our tracking of wealthmanagement products, such as 3-m wealth management products and property trusts, has beentrending
53、downward since 2012, which seems incrementally supportive to the equity market, in ourview.高华证券策略研究905.5%82013 年 1 月 31 日Two key liquidity concerns that investors may raise include:1) TSF deceleration. Our bank research team expects 18% TSF growth in 2013E (a modestdecline from 2012 at 20%) and beli
54、eves it is sufficient to support GDP growth above 7.5%. Fordetails, please see China: Banks: Shadow banking trip takeaways: Cyclical risk low; LT risksremain, January 12, 2013.2) IPO and unlocking overhang. We believe the IPO liquidity impact to the market is limited andthe unlocking overhang is con
55、centrated in the SME/GEM boards. For details, please see China:Portfolio Strategy Research: IPO deep dive: The Sword of Damocles or Paper Tiger? January 23,2013.Exhibit 17: Mutual fund equity positions still havepotential upside, in our viewExhibit 18: New investors account opening still close totro
56、ugh level; we believe there is catch-up potential(%)China A-share mutual fund_Equity Position (%)2301,800(1000 units)New A-share account openingCSI300 (RHS)8580Indexed Apr 2,2007=1002101901701,6001,4001,2001,0001507513080060070110400659070200060502007-04-02 2008-01-23 2008-11-19 2009-09-10 2010-07-1
57、2 2011-05-112012-3-22012-12-24Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 19: Average yields of 3M wealth managementproducts issued by listed banks are trending down5.2%Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 20: Prope
58、rty trust product yield has been trendingdown since early 2012Average yield for newly issued assembled funds trust in propertyindusty13%5.0%12%4.5%11%4.0%10%3.5%3.0%9%8%222bp higherthan troughlevel in Jan-097%2.5%Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-136%Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securitie
59、s Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch高华证券策略研究Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch18092013 年 1 月 31 日Exhibit 21: QFII and RQFII quotas have been on a rising trend recentlyRmb bnRQFIIQFIIAccumulated QFII quota: Rmb236bn;Accumulated RQFII quota: Rmb67bn1601
60、4012010080604020-2003200420052006200720082009201020112012Source: WIND, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究2013 年 1 月 31 日Sector rotation: Switch Property with Capital Goods as overweightWe continue to favor pro-cyclical sectors, which benefit more from cyclical rec
61、overy thandefensive sectors, and we suggest a gradual shift from earlier-cyclical sectors to later-cyclicalsectors in 1H2013, and here we switch Property with Capital Goods on the overweight sector list.Currently, we suggest overweight Capital Goods (Machinery, Railway Equipment), ConstructionMateri
62、als (Cement), Securities, Insurance, Media and F&B, and continue to underweight Coal,Steel, and Chemicals mainly on weaker fundamentals.Moving Property to market weight from overweightThe Property sector has been one of the best performers. The CSI300-property index was up30% since our 2013E strateg
63、y outlook piece on November 29, 2012, outperforming the CSI300index by 10ppt. Since early 2012, the sector has outperformed the CSI300 index by c. 30%.Reasons for the outperformance: 1) strong sector fundamentals with WIND estimated earningsgrowth in 2012E of 24% vs. 5% for the WIND CSI 300 index, d
64、riven by stabilized property priceand recovering transaction volume on the back of policy support on first-time home buyers withlower mortgages; and 2) a neutralized policy stance in 2012 following weakness in theeconomy/property prices/property investments.However, looking forward, although we are
65、still comfortable about the sectors fundamentals andvaluation, we are holding a more neutral stance now given that: 1) Investors have alreadypositioned high into the sector with 9.5% vs. the benchmark at 4.9% and the historical range at3.1%-10.8%, and investors probably have already built in high ex
66、pectations on the propertyprice/volume in 2013E; 2) the sector has already enjoyed significant c. 30% alpha since 2012,though the valuation still looks reasonable with GS onshore property coverage trading at a 10X2013E P/E and a 39% 2013E NAV discount; 3) Along with continued strengthening propertyp
67、rices ahead, the potential for increased discussion of policies such as a property tax trial-runexpansion or extra transaction tax, etc. may limit the sectors outperformance over the CSI300index; 4) we expect better investment opportunities for mid-stream selective cyclical sectors withan affirmed m
68、acro recovery.Upgrading Capital Goods to overweight from market weightFor selective cyclical sectors, we are getting incrementally more positive on Capital Goods(Railway Equipment and Construction Machinery), in addition to our existing overweight sector -Construction Materials (Cement). Several key
69、 arguments include:1) Early signs of a mild recovery in machinery sales. We believe the worst period for the sector isprobably over, and we note that monthly excavator/loader/dozer volume has recovered to -17%/-37%/88% from the trough level of c. -40% in 2012. We expect further potential improvement
70、 onthe back of improving macros and easier 1H2012 comparables. Our China machinery researchteam currently expects a 10%-15% volume increase for excavators/ loaders/dozers in 2013E,which is better than current market expectations for a flattish volume outlook based on investorfeedback.2) Some leading
71、 indicators like land transactions have been encouraging: Our tracking of landarea acquired in 302 cities (70% of the nationwide total) has shown meaningful improvement, with20% yoy growth in 4Q2012, vs. average -20% yoy during 4Q2011-3Q2012 (Exhibit 28). Weexpect GFA starts yoy growth to see positi
72、ve growth in the coming quarter or so given the high40% correlation with land sales (Exhibit 29).高华证券策略研究102013 年 1 月 31 日3) The performance of the Capital Goods sector has been weak: it has underperformed theCSI300 index by 20% since early 2011 along with Chinas GDP growth slowing down (Exhibit 26)
73、.4) Still-low mutual fund positions: our tracking of mutual funds sector positions shows theirpositions in Capital Goods (Machinery in particular) are still relatively low vs. history (Exhibit 31).The valuation of the sector has declined to more reasonable level (Exhibit 27), for leading namesin par
74、ticular, such as Zoomlion A, which is trading at 6.9X/7.0X Wind/GS 2013E EPS with 10%+earnings growth in 2013.Refresh our 2013 top stock picksWe launched our top ten stock picks in our 2013E strategy outlook report, which haveoutperformed the CSI300 index by 7% since then. Consistent with our sector
75、 preference change,we have replaced Vanke with Zoomlion on the list (see Exhibit 23).Exhibit 22: We have replaced Property with Capital Goods on the overweight listSectorsCapital GoodsSecurities& OthersInsuranceConstruction Materials & OthersFood&beverageMediaPropertyBanksHealth CareConsumer Durable
76、sTextile&ApparelNon-ferrous metal & OthersConstruction&Other Industrial ServicesRetailingIT&equipment/componentsOil,gas& petrochemicalUtilitiesAuto&partsShipping&Other transportationAirlinesTransportation InfrastructureHotel &tourism&OthersTelecomCoalChemicalSteelIndexweighting(%)11.55.64.31.77.50.4
77、4.917.74.62.30.48.13.12.62.42.22.22.01.81.00.80.71.06.72.42.3NewratingOWOWOWOWOWOWNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralUWUWUWPreviousratingNeutralOWOWOWOWOWOWNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeut
78、ralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralUWUWUWL-T relativeStructuralpotential0+00+-+000+0+0000+-0-2013E relativeEPS growthpotential+0+-+-0+0-+-+0-0+-0Sector relativeValuation vs.history0-+-00+00-0-+-00-+-InvestorsPositioning+00+-+-0000-00+0+0+0+OW SectorsNeutral SectorsUW Sectors31.057.7
79、11.324.464.411.3Note: 1) + means favorable; - means unfavorable; blank means neutral2) For detailed analysis about our sector scorecard, please refer to Exhibit 74 and 75 of our 2013 strategy outlook report “recovering mildly, with hopes on reform” dated Nov. 29, 2012.Source: WIND, Gao Hua Securitie
80、s Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究11%2013 年 1 月 31 日Exhibit 23: We have replaced Vanke with Zoomlion on our top stock pick listTop 5 stock picks positioning for 1H2013 cyclical recoveryTicker601299.SS000157.SZ600999.SS600585.SS601336.SSNameChina CNR CorporationZoomlion (A)China Me
81、rchants SecuritiesAnhui Conch Cement (A)New China Life Insurance (A)RatingBuy*BuyBuyNeutralBuySectorIndustrialsIndustrialsDiversified FinancialsMaterialsInsurancePrice(Rmb)4.718.8810.3118.8327.00P/E CY2013X9.96.910.79.013.7EPS growth2013E (%)33.910.59.031.342.2Note: * Conviction Buy, stock price as
82、of Jan 24 2013Top 5 stock picks positioning for 2H2013 potential reform beneficiaryTicker002223.SZ601336.SS601888.SS300291.SZ000423.SZNameJiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment & SupplyNew China Life Insurance (A)China International Travel Service Corp.Beijing Hualubaina Film & TV Co.Shandong Dong-E E-Jiao
83、 Co.RatingBuy*BuyBuy*BuyBuySectorHealth CareInsuranceConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryHealth CarePrice(Rmb)15.5527.0028.1858.6146.95P/E CY2013X19.913.716.720.918.3EPS growth2013E36.342.248.230.034.9Note: * Conviction Buy, stock price as of Jan 24 2013Source: WIND, Gao Hua Securities Resea
84、rch, Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 24: Capital goods major machinery monthlysales volume has started to pickup since 4Q2012250%Excavator volume YoYLoader volume YoYExhibit 25: Property prices have been trending up since2H2012, though more modest than 2009 cycleNo. of cities with ASP incre
85、ased MOM (LHS)No. of cities with ASP decreased MoM (LHS)70 cities average monthly mom (RHS)200%Dozer volume YoY801.81.6150%100%60401.41.21.00.80.650%2000.40.20.0-0.20%-50%-100%-20-40-60-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.2-1.4Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securitie
86、s Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch高华证券策略研究Source: NBS, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch122011-102011-112011-122012-012012-022012-032012-042012-052012-062012-072012-082012-092012-102012-112012-1250220%02013 年 1 月 31 日Exhibit 26: Capital goods has been underperfo
87、rming theCSI300 index significantly since 2011CSI300 IndexExhibit 27: Capital goods valuation has narrowed to morereasonable level now in our viewCapital goods sector 12-m forward PE(x)110Capital goods (Relative performance vs. CSI300 Index,RHS)115Capital goods sector valuation premium over themarke
88、t (RHS)45200%105110100959085105100959040353025180%160%140%120%808520758015100%7065(Jan 1 2011=100)757010580%60%Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 28: Land GFA transacted in 302 cities we trackrecorded 20% yoy growth in 4Q2
89、012Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 29: Land sales pickup may suggest potentiallybetter construction activities ahead400300(mn sqm)Land GFA transacted (LHS)Land sales by GFA yoy% (RHS)50%40%20%Nationwide GFA starts yoy (3m avg)302 cities land GFA tra
90、nsacted yoy (3m avg)30%15%200100-10020%10%0%-10%-20%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%Correlation:40%-200-30%-40%-20%-25%-30%-300Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch高华证券策略研究-50%Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch13ConstructionConglomerat
91、esElectronicsMachinery,equipmentandinstrumentsMediaandculturalserviceSmeltingandprocessingPharmaandbiotechproductsTransportationandwarehousingWoodsandfurnitureOthermanufacturingOil,coal,andotherminingsSocialserviceChemical,rubberandplasticsITPropertyProductionandsupplyofpower,gasPaperandpressAgricul
92、ture,forestry,farmingandfisheryTextile,clothes,furFinancialandinsuranceFoodsandbeverageRetailandwholesale3025(%)100%32.622.116.89.02013 年 1 月 31 日Exhibit 30: Most cyclical sectors may record strongerthan market earnings growth in 2013EExhibit 31: Mutual fund positions on China property havereached h
93、istorical high end while capital goods(machinery) still has upside potentialCoalBanksTransportation InfrastructureUtilitiesAuto&partsCSI 300MediaRetailingOil,gas& petrochemicalConsumer DurablesConstruction &OthersAirlinesCapital GoodsSecurities& OthersHealth CareTextile&ApparelPropertyHotel &tourism
94、&OthersFood&beverageConstruction Materials & OthersChemicalInsuranceSteelNon-ferrous metal & OthersTelecomIT&equipment/componentsShipping&Other transportation2013E WIND consensus EPS growthBase effect20155High point since 1Q2007Low point since 1Q2007Current level-20406080100120140160180Source: Wind,
95、 Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 32: Property has outperformed the CSI300 indexby 30% since 2012CSI300 IndexProperty (Relative performance vs. CSI300 Index, RHS)Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchExhibit 33: Sector performa
96、nce since our 2013E strategyoutlook dated Nov. 29, 2012CSI300 performance by sector (from the publication of 2013 outlook to date)OW sector Neutral sector UW sectorSecurities& Others11010510095140135130125PropertyAuto&partsChemicalInsuranceAirlinesSHSZ300Capital GoodsIT&equipment/components28.626.92
97、5.724.924.623.223.122.2Construction Materials & Others90858075120115110105BanksConsumer DurablesRetailingHealth CareCoalHotel &tourism&OthersTextile&Apparel19.418.818.218.017.117.117.1Construction&Other Industrial Services70100Non-ferrous metal & OthersShipping&Other transportation15.914.365(Jan 1 2
98、011=100)95Transportation InfratructureMedia13.612.5SteelTelecomUtilitiesOil,gas& petrochemicalFood&beverage-0.211.711.710.3-505101520253035Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearchGao Hua Sec
99、urities acknowledges the role of Helen Zhu, Timothy Moe, CFA, and Ben Bei ofGoldman Sachs in the preparation of this product.高华证券策略研究142013 年 1 月 31 日信息披露附录分析师申明我们，孙贤兵、 刘陈杰，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。此外，我们的薪金的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。信息披露公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义买入、中性、卖出：分析师建议将评为买入或卖
100、出的股票纳入地区投资名单。一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定。任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级。每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35%的股票评级为买入、10-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来管理该地区的投资名单；但是，在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同。地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。潜在回报：代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投
101、资名单的研究报告中都有注明。研究行业及评级：分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。 具吸引力(A)：未来 12 个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及或估值。 中性(N)：未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及或估值持平。 谨慎(C)：未来 12 个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及或估值。暂无评级(NR)：在高盛高华于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下，投资评级和目标价格已经根据高华证券的政策予以除去。 暂停评级(RS)：由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标，或在发表报告方面存在
102、法律、监管或政策的限制，我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目标。此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效，因此投资者不应依赖该等资料。 暂停研究(CS)：我们已经暂停对该公司的研究。 没有研究(NC)：我们没有对该公司进行研究。 不存在或不适用(NA)：此资料不存在或不适用。 无意义(NM)：此资料无意义，因此不包括在报告内。一般披露本报告在中国由高华证券分发。高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研
103、究，但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构，从事投资银行业务。高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系。我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对
104、本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客
105、户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见，包括税务意见。本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。某些交易，包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易，有很大的风险，因此并不适合所有投资者。投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过http:/ 取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品，例如，期权差价结构产品，其交易成本可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 2013 年未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意，本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或(ii)再次分发。高华证券策略研究15
