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1、中美贸易失衡有望缓解 Harvard University economic professor Martin Feldstein made the case that a series of forces already in play will help do what political leaders have failed to accomplish, which is put in place a path to help rebalance a relationship that sees a massive outflow of dollars from the U.S. in
2、to Chinese hands. This imbalance is a major driver of Americas overall trade deficit, and become a major political problem complicating the two nations relationship.Feldsteins outlook will strike many as overly optimistic, given that the U.S. and others have been working with little apparent success
3、 to induce the Chinese to allow the yuan, which is currently pegged to the dollar, to rise relative to the greenback. While Chinese authorities have allowed a very modest appreciation of late, many have said what has happened is insufficient to redress a situation almost all view as unsustainable.Th
4、e relationship between the dollar and the yuan even became a sticking point in the Federal Reserves effort to stimulate the economy by buying longer-term U.S. government debt. For a time that action depressed the dollar and made Chinese goods even cheaper in global markets. That frustrated European
5、authorities dealing with their own economic problems, and angered Chinese leaders, who were already trying to deal with signs of inflation and economic overheating in their own economy.Feldstein, who was speaking at an economics conference in Denver, is not counting on the political class to solve t
6、he problem. Instead, he believes the U.S dollar needs to be allowed to fall, U.S. households need to save more, and government budget deficits need to shrink.The academic reckons all of these things are possible, even probable. “Substantial progress will be made over the next several years” on the r
7、equired fronts. Hes hopeful on budget deficits due to an improving economy and what he hopes will be an increased realization among elected leaders borrowing must be lowered to a more sustainable path.On the China side of the equation, Feldstein expects contributions as well. First, he notes that th
8、e real value of yuan appreciation is quite a bit higher than what officials are implementing relative to their dollar peg, which is helpful. How so? Feldstein points to the impact of higher Chinese price inflation relative to the very low price gains seen in the U.S., which he says drives up the “re
9、al” value of the yuan relative to the dollar.The economist also sees Chinese policies creating the conditions for better levels of domestic spending, noting “it is important these policies are rooted in domestic considerations.”Feldsteins ideas are controversial. For one, his optimism that the U.S.
10、can get its fiscal house in order confronts a very fractious political environment. For all the talk of lowering deficits, the incoming Republican congress has already backed away from its commitment to trim $100 billion from government spending, while pushing through a largely symbolical health car
11、e reform repeal the Congressional Budget Office says would actually worsen the long term outlook for the budget, if it succeeded. Right now, it remains very unclear where a reduced budget deficit will come from.中国通胀有利美国Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the Senate Finance Committee today that
12、growing inflationary pressures in China would help U.S. competitiveness because companies and investors now have to factor in rising costs in China when making business decisions.Mr. Geithner said: The yuan is only moving at about 0.5%-a month now against the dollar, but because their inflation rate
13、s are much higher than ours, if you look at the actual competitive balance now, its appreciating substantially more rapidly than that. And thats very good, because it means that companies now as they choose where they build their next plant, where they lock in long-term contracts, they have to plan
14、for the reality that the competitive playing field is going to be shifting in our direction. Weve got to make sure that happens.In a subsequent response to a question, Mr. Geithner quantified the yuans appreciation, when factoring in inflation more than 10% a year, if sustained.Because their inflati
15、on rates are so much higher than ours, its actually appreciating in real terms against the United States at a rate, if continued, of roughly 10% a year, a little more. And if that were sustained that would bring about a major shift in the competitive balance in our favor over time which is necessary
16、 and important, not just to us but to all of Chinas trading partners. I think they have reached a judgment themselves internally that they have no choice but to let the yuan appreciate over time. Because, again, if they were not to, theyd be left with the risk of much more inflation, much more risk of the types of financial crisis we went through. They want to make sure they avoid that outcome. 美国一位知名经济学家上周五说，有望缩小美国与中国之间贸易差
