《风电并网对系统运行的影响和对策》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《风电并网对系统运行的影响和对策（22页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、风电并网对系统运行的影响和对策 Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems and Market Operations Impact & Solution,胡明 Ming Hu 运行规划 (Operation Planning) 系统运行及可靠性 (O & R) 阿尔伯塔省电力运行机构 (AESO),2,阿尔伯塔省电力工业概况 Albertas Electric Industry,最大负荷 (Peak load)：9,775 MW 年负荷系数 (annual load factor)：80% 装机容量 (Installed Capacity)：12
2、,368 MW 280台发电机组 (generating units) 200电力交易商 (Wholesale market participants) 21,000 km 输电线 (Transmission line) 2对外联络线 (Interties)：与BC省780MW；与 Sask.省 150 MW,BC,Alta.,Sask.,煤电 Coal 5,893 MW,燃气电厂 Gas 4,895MW,其它 Other 214 MW,风电 Wind 523 MW,水电 869MW,主要风电项目 开发地区 (Primary region), 11,000 MW 风电项目意向 (Wind po
3、wer Interest),300 KM,3,风电大规模并网对系统运行带来的挑战 The System Operation Challenge of Large-Scale Wind Power Integration,如何应对风电出力变化和不确定性 How to handle the variability and uncertainty in System Operation 理解风电出力的变化规律 (风电出力变化研究) Understand the wind power variability (Wind power variability study) 理解风电出力的不确定性 (风电出
4、力预测试点项目) Understand wind power uncertainty (Wind power forecast pilot project) 理解和评估对系统运行的影响 (系统影响分析, 1) Understand and assess the potential impact on system operation (System Impact study, phase-1) 评估潜在的系统应对措施及手段 (系统影响分析, 2) Assess potential mitigation solutions (System Impact study, phase-2) 应对措施的
5、实施 (发展风电的市场及运行框架) Solutions implementation (Market & Operation Framework),4,理解风电出力的不稳定性 Understand the wind power variability,AESO 和风电行业合作，完成了 “阿尔伯塔风电出力变化研究” AESO work with wind industry, contracted GENIVAR (Phoenix Engineering) to conduct “Alberta wind power variability study” 研究结果提供了2004年风电出力全年每分钟
6、的仿真结果 / Provided simulated minute-to-minute wind power data for the whole year (2004) 基于2004年气候测量数据，未来风电发站方案及风电场模型 / Based on measured meteorology data across southern Alberta of potential future wind farms and wind power production simulation model 4个未来风电发站方案 / For 4 scenarios (250MW, 900MW, 1500MW
7、 and 2000MW) 250MW为2004年已有规模，用于模型验证 / The 250MW was the existing wind power scenario, for the purpose of wind power production simulation model validation 为下一步的 “风电的系统影响”提供必要的基础和数据 / The data was required and used later for AESO “Wind power system Impact studies” 研究的主要结论: 风电出力的不稳定随着发展规模的增加而增大, 但由于分布
8、的分散互补性，并非按比例增大。 / A key conclusion of this study: The wind power variability does increase with the wind power development level, but not proportionally due to diversification,5,理解风电出力的不稳定性(2) 分散互补性 Understand the Variability of Wind Power (2) Diversification,不同分布的风电场出力不稳定性的叠加 分散互补的影响 The combined v
9、ariability of different wind farms Diversification impact 不同分布的风电场出力不稳定性的叠加不是简单的算术叠加，而是向量叠加，向量的方向取决于不同风电场的相关情况。 The combined variability (random nature) is the vector-sum of each individual variability other than simple-sum 完全正相关 相互独立 完全反相关 positive correlate independent negative correlate 空间分散 / 时间
10、互补 (Diversification: Space / Time) 对短时出力变化互补明显 平滑效应 / more smoothing effect for short-term variability 对长期出力变化互补性减低 接力效应 (持续增减) / less smoothing effect and more relay effect for long-term variability (Ramping issue) 取决于风场的位置分布和风向 / Also related with location distribution of wind farms and wind direc
11、tions,6,理解风电出力的不确定性 风电出力预测试点项目 Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power (1) - Forecasting Pilot Project,试点三种不同的预测方法 ，为期1年 / Trial three very different forecasting methods over a one year period: AWS Truewind (US) WEPROG (Denmark) Energy and Meteo (Germany) 分别针对4个不同地理气候条件的地区 4 different geographic te
12、rrains / wind regimes in Alberta 每小时提供未来1-48小时的平均风速，矗立及变化 / T-1 to T-48 hours forecasted refreshed hourly (w/s, MWs, ramp rate) 7个现有风场，5个未来风场 / 7 existing and 5 future facilities to represent geographic diversity and future expansion 统一的风场气象数据收集 / On-site Met Data Collection by GENIVAR 独立的结果分析 / Ind
13、ependent analytical analysis from ORTECH Power,Funded by Alberta Electric System Operator Alberta Energy Research Institute Alberta Department Of Energy,7,理解风电出力的不确定性 (2) 预测误差实例 Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power (2) - forecast error example,时间误差 Phase Error,误报 False Alarm,变化率误差 Ramp Rate,漏报 M
14、iss,8,理解风电的不确定性 (3) Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power - (3),不确定性不等同于变化 / Uncertainty is different than Variability 不确定性只是无法预测的变化预测误差 Uncertainty is only the unpredictable variability forecast error 风电出力预测的相对误差高于负荷预测 / The relative degree of uncertainty of wind power is bigger than load based
15、on todays forecast capability 1日前预测: 负荷一般1-3%，风电 10% (100%?) Day-ahead forecast: 1-3% error for load vs. 10% for wind power 准确预测风电出力变化有难度 / The prediction of wind power ramping is challenging 常用的预测误差指标，例如: 平均|误差|、方差等不适用 / The standard accuracy metrics used to describe forecast performance may not be
16、 applicable or meaningful to system operations, such as MAPE, RMSE because they can suppress ramping signals 需要制定新的预测误差指标，能够全面反映幅值、相位、误报、漏报及变化趋势误差 / Need some accuracy metrics that can describe not only magnitude error, but also phase error, false-alarm rate, capture-rate, ramping rate error AESO制定了基于出力变化事件的幅值/相位误差图 AESO developed an changing-event-based magnitude/phase accuracy chart to assess and understand wind power forecast capability,
