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1、1-1McGraw-Hill/Irwin The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2007 All rights reserved.1-2GradingGrading Grading for the course will be based on three components: Class participation (20%), Valuation reports and presentations(40%) Final exam (40%). Feel free to discuss the reports with others, but you shoul
2、d submit your own write-ups.1-3WeekTopicsChapters1Introduction to Captial Market and Financial Statements1-32Management and Governance3Analysis Business in Accounting Firm: Guest Lecturer4Cash Flows and Accrual Accounting45Accrual Accounting and Valuation:Residual Earnings Valuation56Accrual Account
3、ing and Valuation: Earnings Growth Valuation67The Analysis of four major financial statements7-108Profitability Analysis119Project Presentation1-4The Aim of the CourseThe Aim of the Course To develop and apply technologies for valuing firms and for planning to generate value within the firm Features
4、 of the approach: A disciplined approach to valuation fundamental analysis and financial statement analysis Stresses the development of technologies that can be used in practice Adopts activist point of view to investing: the market may be inefficient Integrates financial statement analysis with cor
5、porate finance Exploits accounting as a system for measuring value added Exposes good (and bad) accounting from a valuation perspective1-5What Will You Learn from the CourseWhat Will You Learn from the CourseHow intrinsic values are calculated What determines a firms value How financial analysis is
6、developed for strategy and planning The role of financial statements in determining firms values How to pull apart the financial statements to get at the relevant information How ratio analysis aids in valuation How growth is analyzed and valued The relevance of cash flow and accrual accounting info
7、rmation How to calculate what the P/E ratio should be How to calculate what the price-to-book ratio should be How to do business forecasting How to assess the quality of the accounting1-61-7Individual InvestorList CompanyFinancial Intermediate (Analysts, Investment Bank, Rating Agencies, Auditor)Mar
8、ket Supervisor (SEC)A Framework for Capital Market ParticipatorsA Framework for Capital Market ParticipatorsInvestorInstitutional Investor1-8Valuation TechnologyIndustry InformationMacroeconomic InformationThe Constitution of Investment AnalysisThe Constitution of Investment AnalysisEnterprise Infor
9、mationRating AgenciesFinancial Analyst1-9Users of Firms Financial Information (Demand Side)Users of Firms Financial Information (Demand Side) Equity InvestorsEquity Investors Investment analysis Management performance evaluation Debt InvestorsDebt Investors Probability of default Determination of le
10、nding rates Covenant violations ManagementManagement Strategic planning Investment in operations Evaluation of subordinates EmployeesEmployees Security and remuneration LitigantsLitigants Disputes over value in the firm CustomersCustomers Security of supply GovernmentsGovernments Policy making Regul
11、ation Taxation Government contracting Competitors Competitors Investors and management are the primary users of financial statements1-10Investment StylesInvestment Styles Intuitive investingRely on intuition and hunches: no analysis Passive investingAccept market price as value: no analysis Fundamen
12、tal investing: challenge market pricesActive investingDefensive investing1-11Costs of Each ApproachCosts of Each ApproachDanger in intuitive approach: Self deception; ignores ability to check intuition Danger in passive approach: Price is what you pay, value is what you get: The risk of paying too m
13、uch Fundamental analysis Requires work ! Prudence requires analysis: a defense against paying the wrong price (or selling at the wrong price) The Defensive Investor Activism requires analysis: an opportunity to find mispriced investments The Enterprising Investor1-12Alphas and BetasAlphas and Betas
14、Beta technologies: Calculates risk measures: Betas Calculates the normal return for risk Ignores any arbitrage opportunities Example: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Alpha technologies: Tries to gain abnormal returns by exploiting arbitrage opportunities from mispricingPassive investment needs a
15、beta technology (except for index investing) Active investing needs a beta and an alpha technology1-13Passive Strategies: Beta TechnologiesPassive Strategies: Beta Technologies Risk aversion makes investors price risky equity at a risk premium Required return = Risk-free return + Premium for risk What is a normal return for risk? A technology for pricing risk (asset pricing model) is needed Premium for risk = Risk premium on risk factors x sensitivity to risk factors Among such technologies: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) One single risk factor: Excess market return on rF
