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1、 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 西安市房地产市场预警模型的研究与应用 西安市房地产市场预警模型的研究与应用 专 业：土木工程建造与管理 硕 士 生：周 韬 指导教师：孟周济 高工 摘 要 作为国家支柱性产业和一项重大民生工程，房地产业的发展历来被人们所关注。房地产市场的发展过程中呈现出周期波动性，为了防止剧烈波动，使其平稳健康发展，西安市房管局积极建立房地产预警系统，在此背景下，本文希望结合西安市实际，建立科学精确的预警模型，为政策制定者提供参考，也有助于房地产市场的健康发展。 本文首先介绍了房地产市场周期波动理论，并对其形成过程进行古典经济学意义上的阶段分解，这也让我们知道房地产市场的发展是
2、有着规律和发展阶段可寻的。然后介绍了房地产预警的基本概念，在阅读大量有关房地产预警文献的基础上，详细归纳和总结了房地产预警方法、房地产预警指标体系和预测方法。在了解各种方法的优缺点之后，提出了将改进后的景气循环法与动态计量经济学模型法相结合的方法对西安市房地产市场进行预警模型设计；在指标体系上本文认为应该强调模型对指标系统的选择，不同的模型所要求的指标体系不同，因此，在充分认识预警模型的基础上确定了西安市房地产市场预警指标体系；同时在预测方法上，本文提供了季节处理和向量误差修正模型（VEC）这两种方法的详细理论和操作方法。 运用改进后的景气循环法与动态计量经济学模型法相结合的方法对西安市房地产
3、市场进行预警分析不但可以从整体上把握房地产市场的发展状况和未来走势，还可以对商品房销售价格进行单独的分析。分析发现，西安市房地产市场从2008 年 2 月至 2011 年 12 月大致经历了 3 个周期的波动，在经历了 2011 年全年的“收缩”和“萧条”阶段后将在 2012 年仍处于进入“萧条”阶段；同时对商品房销售价格的分析也发现商品房销售价格在 2011 年剧烈波动， 偏离了与其他各指标的长期均衡状态， 并且在 2012 年也将迎来上涨的趋势。 结合模型的模拟和预测结果，文章接着给出了政策和措施建议，在接下来的西安市房地产市场上要预防其重新进入过热发展，同时还要防止房价剧烈波动，影响国民
4、经济的健康发展。 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 经过实证分析可以发现，本文构建的改进后的景气循环法与动态计量经济学模型法相结合的方法能够较好地模拟和预测西安市房地产市场的发展，在理论分析和实际操作上都为房地产市场预警提供了有效的参考。 关关 键键 词：词：房地产市场预警 景气循环法 动态计量经济模型法 协整理论 论文类型：论文类型：应用研究 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 The Study and Application on Real Estate Market Early-warning Model of Xian Specialty：Construction Engineering an
5、d Management Name： Zhou Tao Instructor：Engineer.Meng Zhouji Abstract Real estate industry is viewed as the most important industry of the nation, as well as a significant livelihood project, whose development is the focus all the time. As we all know, it shows periodic fluctuations in the developmen
6、t of real estate industry. In order to avoid great fluctuations and keep smooth and healthy development of the industry, many measures should be adopted to help this. In view of this, Xian Real Estate Bureau promptly encourages people to establish real estate early warning system. Therefore, scienti
7、fic and accurate early warning system should be established combing with Xian reality in order to provide valuable preferences for policy makers, such as issuing real estate measures, which would help the healthy development of real estate industry. At first, Macro-economy and real estate periodic f
8、luctuation theory are introduced in the paper, whose formulation process is decomposed on the level of classical economics. Such analysis could we know the truth that there is inherent logics and disciplines in real estate development. Secondly, basic conceptions of real estate warning are formulate
9、d in the paper. On the basis of reading large sum of relative references on real estate warning, warning methods、predicting methods and warning index system are summarized in detail. Based on the reference to other study, the method of combined with improved method of booming cycle early warning and
10、 dynamic quantitative economics model is used to analyze Xian real estate market. In view of index system, selection of appropriate index system models should be seriously considered. Because different models would request different index system, Xian real estate market warning index system is deter
11、mined on the thorough 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 acknowledgement of above warning models. In view of predicting methods, thorough theories and operating methods of seasonal adjustment and vector error correction models are offered in the paper. Combined method of improved booming cycle early warning and dynamic
12、 quantitative economics not only enable us grasp the developing circumstances and future trend as a whole of real estate market, but also could analyze the price of commodity housing from single perspective. We can find that there are three periodic fluctuations of Xian real estate market from Febru
13、ary in 2008 to December in 2011, and such market would go through shrink in 2012 after shrink and depression in 2011. At the same time, there is great fluctuation in 2011 of commodity housing price through price analysis, which deviate the long balance status of other indicators, and the price would
14、 probably rise in 2012. Combing with model simulation and predicting results, relevant policies and suggestions are offered in the paper. So, we should take measures to avoid the real estate market entering into overheating development again as well as great fluctuations in price, otherwise, which w
15、ould affect the healthy development of national economy. Through case analysis, we could find that combined method of improved booming cycle early warning and dynamic quantitative economics could better simulate and predict Xian real estate development, which offer effective references to real estate market warning and predicting theoretically and practically. Key words: Real estate warning, booming cycle method, dynamic quantitative economics model, co-integration theory Research type: development research 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 I目 录 1绪论绪论 .1 1.1 选题依据 .
