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1、 Disclosures the panel disagreed), why Grocery Home Delivery is profit-destructive and why Tesco-Booker (TSCO LN, 199p, Buy, TP 260p; BOK LN, 219p, Buy, 270p) is a good deal for Tesco shareholders and bad news for competitors. One conclusion was that the audience did not believe Tesco will hit its m
2、argin aspiration, with over 75% expecting a fully recovered Tesco margin to be below 3.5%. This underscores the investment opportunity as the Tesco recovery is underway, as highlighted by Nielsen. Non-Food Retail: Disruption from online is a major long-term threat but boards struggle to face up to t
3、he long-term consequences. Opportunities remain, however, particularly for multi-channel, discounters and specialists (B AB Foods, ABF LN, 2,597p, Buy, TP 3,700p). Oliver Wyman outlined six strategies for retailers to follow long-term. Our audiences view was that Amazon is a bigger long-term threat
4、than the market realises. Clothing remains the category most at risk from online according to the audience and panellists. Travel: The travel panel was optimistic, pointing out UK consumers remain keen to spend on travel and prefer to spend on experiences than on material assets. Notwithstanding pri
5、ce sensitivity in the booking process, consumers are ready to start spending the moment a trip starts, offering the opportunity for upselling. Loyalty has a relevance, and Brexit is a technical issue for airlines but is not impacting demand at this time. Weak GBP did encourage inbound tourism to the
6、 UK. Geopolitical and terrorist incidents impact demand but the time taken for demand to recover is shrinking (easyJet, EZJ LN, 1,608p, Buy, TP 1,850p, Ryanair, RYA ID, EUR15.85, Reduce, TP EUR14.0). Leisure: A key conclusion from our survey and conference is the robustness of Leisure and especially
7、 holiday spend into 2018. It is also clear younger people are really prioritising travel and are keen to explore new ways of seeing the world such as Cruise. We highlight our Buy ratings on Thomas Cook (TCG LN, 119p, TP 140p) and Carnival (CCL LN, 4,787p, TP 5,500p/CCL US, USD67.07, TP USD78), which
8、 we believe are structural winners given their market shares and brand strength. Macro: While acknowledging risks, the panellists and audience were generally optimistic for 2018. Inflationary pressures were seen to have peaked. Employment is a key area of uncertainty, with fears of a labour shortage
9、 and the impact this could have on the economy. However the audience was pessimistic on the outlook for England in the World Cup this summer. Guess who they think will win (on penalties). 12 February 2018 David McCarthy* Head of Consumer Retail, Europe HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 1326 Andrew Lobbenbe
10、rg* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6816 Lena Thakkar* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 3448 Paul Rossington* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6734 Andrew Porteous*, CFA Analyst, European Retail HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 4647 Emmanuelle Vigneron* Analyst HSBC Bank plc, Paris branch +33 1 56
11、 52 43 19 Ali Naqvi* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 2176 Ruhell Amin* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 0112 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Future Consumer EQUITIES MULTI-SECTOR Retail, Travel and Lei
12、sure: Conclusions from Anatomy of the UK Consumer Forum, 1 February 2018 EQUITIES MULTI-SECTOR 12 February 2018 2 Introduction 3 Nielsen 4 Food vs Leisure 9 Travel 14 Oliver Wyman 20 Disruptors 26 Anatomy of the UK consumer panel feedback 30 Company profiles 35 Disclosure appendix 62 Disclaimer 65 A
13、genda: The Future Consumer - Anatomy of the UK Consumer Forum (1 February 2018, London) Time Event Session One (08:30-10:30) Presentation “Shopping differently for food” Nielsen Panel 1 Retail vs Leisure Panel 2 Travel Session Two (10:45-13:00) Presentation Future Retailing and Consumer Goods Oliver
14、 Wyman Panel 3 Disruptors Panel 4 Anatomy of a Consumer Lunch Source: HSBC Contents 3 EQUITIES MULTI-SECTOR 12 February 2018 The Future Consumer: Anatomy of a Consumer Following the publication or our UK: Anatomy of the Consumer report on 13 December 2017, and several spin off reports (see below for
15、 links) we hosted a discussion Forum in London on 1 February. Almost 100 people were in attendance, including investors, speakers and a number of corporates and industry experts in the audience. In total we hosted four panel discussions and had two presentations. The order of the day was: Presentation: Shopping Differently for Food by Nielsen Panel 1: Food vs Leisure Panel 2: Travel Presentation: Retail but not as we know it by Oliver Wyman Panel 3: Disruptors Panel 4: Anatomy of a Consumer In
