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1、摩天大楼指数如影随形的经济危机作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。Being the building supported by gigantic economic power,skyscrapers are always seen as a mark of economic prosperity and social progress by the public and politicians.however,some econo
2、mists have opposite opinions,they hold the idea that the emergence of the skyscrapers,especially its new record ,often indicates the recession of the economy.“高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时”，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁劳伦斯于 1999 年发表的判言。2006 年 2 月 15 日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及“摩天大楼指数”的预言：“如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在 20
3、07 年或 2008 年。”The market downturn on the day when the skyscrapers are finished.this is the judgment published in 1991 by Andrew Lawrence who was the german bank securities analyst.on February 15,2006, the global economy meeting was held in Beijing by Lehman company,XXX,the global chief economist of
4、the company,predicted “skyscrapers index”to our clients:if there any,the global economic crisis would happen in 2006 or 2007.雷曼的首席经济学家预见了 2007 年到 2008 年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？XXX,the chief economist of Lehman,foresaw the crisis in 2007 and 2008,how
5、ever,did not predicted that the company with hundreds years deposition would collapse in this crisis.in this aspect,is the skyscrapers a glory or a curse for the economy?Is there really close connection between them?1999 年，安德鲁劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为“摩天大楼指数”。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自 20
6、 世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。In 1999,Andrew Lawrence proved the link between the skyscrapers and the economic crisis with research and called this as “the skyscrapers index”.that means each rise of the the skyscrapers breaking record was followed with the recession of economy.there were f
7、our crazy for the skyscrapers which is accompanied by financial crisis every time since 20th century.20 世纪 20 年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街 40 号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929 年至 1931 年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为“黄金时代”的 20 世纪60 年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。197
8、2 年和 1974 年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。In the 1920s American economy went up and the securities market became flourishing it had not been.the construction of civil and commercial housing advanced triumphantly.three record-breaking skyscrapers were finished during this period.but what followi
9、ng the accomplishment of 40th Of The Wall the Chrysler building and the empire state building from 1929 to 1931 was not new prosperity but The Great Depression.after experiencing the strong and sustained prosperity during 1960s which is called “golden age”by American,both the World Trade center in N
10、ew York and the XRS building were starting to build.they were completed in 1972 and 1974,however,what followed was the serious global economic stagflation.摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？It is hard to explain the closed relation between the skyscrapers and the financial crisis w
11、ith coincidence.so what is the really reason making them closed associate with each other?首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为“百年病态关联”，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。First of all,it is d
12、ue to the human nature,there is blindly confident side in human nature which means lack of the understanding for objective things and depending on subjective view.LXX called the association between financial crisis and the skyscrapers ,which he found,as century pathological correlation,which,however
13、,existed in human social more than hundreds years.according to the history,we would find that there were already these phenomenons .at the most prosperous period of Shang dynasty king Zhou built the LuTai where he suicide because of rebellion.so was the Qing dynasty,when empire QianLong spent whole
14、countrys wealth building gardens which caused the humiliation of the country and forfeiting of its sovereignty. 其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利
15、益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。Besides,the reasons include the interest irritation,pursuit of interest is the premise of business action.before the prosperity there is always a process of low interest which is also the precondition for economy turn prosperous.however,interest is always lower than peo
16、ples anticipation during the prosperous period.which will caused a series of interest transduction pathway,that is, the interest chain mentioned before.both economic prosperity and lower interest influenced the value of the land and the cost of capital directly.under the chain which consist with land price company requirement and capital supporting,the skyscrapers plan which can break the record was born.就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀
