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1、不确定性河流水质模型的应用及进展许null 劲, null 龙腾锐(重庆大学 三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室, 重庆 400045)null null K null 1 : null 明确了河流水质模型由确定性向不确定性发展的趋势, 指出现有河流水质模型大多建立在菲克扩散定律基础上b分析了河流水质模型中不确定性的来源,重点论述了随机水质模型的研究现状,并将其分为随机游动型a随机变量型和随机过程型三类,明确了随机微分方程水质模型与简化型的区别在于是否给出随机扰动强度的表达式, 强调随机微分方程类水质模型是其发展方向,建议综合考虑不确定性和非线性,并从风险评价的高度来研究新的不确定性水质模型bn
2、ull null 1 o M : null 不确定性河流水质模型; null 随机变量; null 随机过程; null 随机微分方程; null 随机扰动强度 m s | : X502null null D S M : Bnull null c I | : 1000- 4602( 2007) 16- 0004- 05Application and Progress of UncertaintyRiverWaterQualityModelXU Jin, null LONG Tengnullrui(KeyLaboratory ofThreeGorgesReservoirRegionnull sE
3、conullEnvironment , Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China)null null Abstract: null The trend of river w ater quality m odels ( RWQM s) developed from certainty to uncernulltainty w as defined, and it w as pointed out that them ost of existing RWQM s are based on the F icknull s lawof diffusi
4、on. The uncertainty sources ofRWQM s w ere analyzed. The present research status of stochasticRWQM s w as discussed emphatically, and they w ere classified into three types: random w alk, randomvariab le and stochastic process. It w as defined that the d ifference betw een stochastic differential eq
5、uationm odel and its sim plifynulltypew aswhether the express of stochastic disturbance intensityw as given, and emnullphasis was laid on that the stochastic d ifferential equation m odel for river w ater quality is aw ay of its denullvelopm en.t It w as suggested that uncertainty and non linearity
6、shou ld be considenullred synthetically, andnew uncertainty RWQM s shou ld be studied from the view point of risk assessm en.tnull null Key words: null uncertain ty river w ater qualitym ode;l null random variable; null stochastic process; null stonullchastic differential equation; null stochastic d
7、isturbance in tensitynull null 8 H W bW % M ? p # Y y M 1 Z , B H q / p t Z ,V L C 5 L = 5 E b T S * , + Y 20W 80M a! 9 F , . , o u = A. 5 Z C . : S , 2004. 9 null R , % , ; ; . = E J. 2 v (1 S ),2004, 35( 4): 573- 576. 10 null , , ; ; . , o u = E J. S , 2004, 17( 5 ): 23 -26. 11 null , ; ; . d l ?
8、B J. , 2003, 25( 1): 52- 53. 12 null , ; ; , S . d L B J . , 2005, 36( 1): 56- 61. 13 null l . d L e H am ilton 8 O M . :S , 2003. 14 null . 1 B N L l M . :S , 2005. 15 null y , 2 Y ,I Z . M CM CE J. S , 2006, 27( 1): 24-30. 16 null y , 2 Y , I Z . L . E L C # e s J. S , 2005, 26( 3): 61- 65. : ( 023) 65121412E- mail: xujinglily 163. coml : 2007- 02- 058 第 23卷null 第 16期null null null null null null null null null null null null null null 中国给水排水null null null null null null null null null null null null www. watergasheat. com
