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1、 2013 年 5 月 2 日 Issue No: 13/14 亚洲经济分析亚洲经济分析 研究报告 更多消息表明增长平淡、通胀下降 过去一周亚洲新兴经济体的增长和通胀相关指标总体低于预期。最近增长的疲软 很大程度上似乎归因于外需环境疲弱。 在韩国，工业产值和出口数据均低于预期。总体通胀率降至 1.2%，显著低于韩国 央行的目标区间，加大了未来几个月降息的可能性（我们预计降息 25 个基点，发 生在 5 月或 6 月的概率大致相同）。 中国采购经理人指数弱于预期，出口指数和通胀压力指标尤为疲软。国家统计局 的原材料购进价格指数创下除 2008 年四季度之外的历史最低水平。 东南亚地区也呈现出类似
2、状况。尽管这部分地区增长总体强劲，但 3 月份出口数 据喜忧参半。泰国和印尼 CPI 数据 4 月份都小幅下滑。印尼政府推迟了燃油补贴 的下调。在泰国，官员们公开辩论应对资本强劲流入和泰铢升值的恰当政策方 式。 印度的经济消息面较为平淡；我们预计印度储备银行将在 5 月 3 日下调政策利率 25 个基点，并在夏初再度降息。 鉴于本周部分亚洲国家的公众假期，我们本期的亚洲经济分析仅包含地区要 点与预测，但不包括重要报告列表。 Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Goohoon Kwon, CFA +82(2)3788-1775 高盛（亚洲）有限责任
3、公司首尔分公司 Tushar Poddar +91(22)6616-9042 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 崔历崔历 +852-2978-0784 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 宋宇宋宇 +86(10)6627-3111 北京高华证券有限责任公司 Mark Tan +65-6889-2472 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 邓敏强邓敏强 +852-2978-6634 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Prakriti Shukla +91(22)6616-9376 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 Sungsoo Chung +82(2)3788-1726 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司 Vishal Vaibh
4、aw +91(80)6637-8602 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 Hui Ying Chan +65-6654-5459 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 Fiona Lake +852-2978-6088 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 高盛集团 2013 年 5 月 2 日 亚洲经济分析 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 2 Regional recap: More news of mediocre growth and falling inflation Emerging Asian economic
5、indicators generally surprised to the downside over the past week, with respect to both growth and inflation. As we discussed last week (see Asia Economics Analyst: 13/13 - China: Credit on or credit off? Rates matter, April 25, 2013), much of the recent growth weakness appears to stem from a soft e
6、xternal demand environment. This week, we discuss each of the major regional markets in turn. Koreadata disappointments increase likelihood of a rate cut Several important gauges of the Korean economy were released this week, and all surprised to the downside. Industrial production declined 2.6% on
7、the month in March and is down slightly on a year-over-year basis (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Korean IP decelerating -24 -16 -8 0 8 16 24 32 40 -24 -16 -8 0 8 16 24 32 40 20062007200820092010201120122013 Industrial production, South Korea year-over-year percentage change year-over-year percentage change
8、 Source: Haver. Exports appear to have been an important part of the disappointment and, based on the latest data, are likely to remain so in April. Exports dropped (on a month-over-month, seasonally adjusted basis) for the third month in a row, with year-over-year growth at only +0.4%. Inflation co
9、ntinued to decline on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. Headline inflation has fallen to 1.2% yoy, the lowest since May 2000, and core inflation is only 1.4% (Exhibit 2). These figures are well below the Bank of Koreas (BOK) target range. Combined with the disappointment on the growt
10、h side, and the fact that the BOKs Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was already evenly split on a rate cut (the minutes revealed a 3-3 vote), we continue to expect a 25 basis point cut in May or June (at this point, we think the June meeting is still most likely). As the MPC minutes from the last BOK
11、 meeting suggested a 3-3 vote on a rate cut, this increases our confidence in the likelihood of a cut in the near future. 2013 年 5 月 2 日 亚洲经济分析 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 3 Exhibit 2: Inflation below the BOKs comfort zone 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 200320052007200920112013 Headline CPI Core
12、 CPI Inflation target range year-over-year percentage changeyear-over-year percentage change Korea inflation: Source: BOK. Chinaweakness concentrated on the export side Manufacturing sector growth softened in April as registered by both the official and HSBC/Markit purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)
13、. However, despite concerns about domestic activity, the weakness appears concentrated on the export side: Export orders underperformed overall orders in both indexes (Exhibit 3 shows the breakdown of the official PMI). The more export-oriented Markit index underperformed the official National Burea
14、u of Statistics (NBS) index, falling by more than the NBS survey and to a lower level. Exhibit 3: External demand weakened in April 45 50 55 60 45 50 55 60 Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13 Headline New orders New export orders IndexIndex China NBS manufacturing PMI: Source: National Bureau
15、 of Statistics. 2013 年 5 月 2 日 亚洲经济分析 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 4 As in other parts of the region, inflation pressure in China appears low at the momentin particular, the input price index of the NBS survey fell to 40.1the lowest reading ever outside Q4 2008. This likely reflects the substantial declines in ma
16、ny commodity prices recently (which in turn, in part may reflect concerns about the Chinese growth outlook). The input and output price indices of the Markit survey each fell about five points. Official CPI data will be released on May 9 and are likely to remain benign. Taiwanese real GDP contracted in Q1 2013 on a sequential basis (growth slowed to 1.5% year- over-year from
