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1、我国燃油期货分析Group 2: 纪晓锋纪晓锋, 李世成李世成, 张喆张喆, 刘岛刘岛, 商务英语商务英语0611一、Fundamental Analysis The generally situation of fuel oil futures prices.2009年6月9日，上海燃料油0908合约报价约为每吨3723元2The fuel oil futures market will be better for long position.Why? Through the supply and demand Nowadays: the world over-supply of fuel
2、oil.There is a surplus of 53.46 million tons of world oil supply in 2002, but in terms of regional balance, a shortage of demand for the Asia-Pacific and North America, the need for a large number of imports from other regions; the former Soviet Union, Latin America and the Middle East have a greate
3、r surplus of fuel oil.3The future supply and demand of fuel oil1.Asia-Pacific region will continue to demand the existence of a huge gap.While the former Soviet Union will decline in supply capacity, but is still outside the ability for all regions of the world largest, almost demand the Asia-Pacifi
4、c region and a considerable gap.2.Africa has about 22 million tons of fuel oil surplus3.Asia-Pacific region over the next few years will continue to be the worlds most active oil trade, Singapore as an international oil trade and oil transit center will have a large amount of fuel oil re-exports4The
5、 situation of fuel oil transaction5The situation of fuel oil inventory6Relevant economic index道琼斯工业指数道琼斯工业指数：7CPI&PPIChinas CPI fell 1.4 percent, and PPI fell 7.2% in MayU.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6%. and PPI up 1.4% in MayGDPThe first quarter of 2009 increased 6.1 percent in Chi
6、na, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, it is means overall economic performance during the first quarter better than expectedIn U.S., the first quarter GDP rose 0.7 percent, higher overseas sales of the reasons for pushing up GDP. Economists expected a value of 0.8 percent or years
7、. The first quarter of 02-year increase is the weakest growth since the end of the year. Economists expect the economy will rebound in the second quarter.Economic situation of China, U.S. and EuropeIt is easy to see that China, the United States and Europes economic situation is not quite well in th
8、e whole economy, but it is still in the recovery phase, and slowly turn for the better8Futures-related impact: crude oil本周原油市场涨势有所趋缓，整体涨幅2.61%。国内燃油市场本周主力换月至909合约，走势上依旧跟随国际原油市场，震荡上行，盘中创出年内新高至3838元，本周涨幅逾4%，剔除端午节补涨因素外，整体上沪油走势仍弱于原油市场。原油市场短期内快速上扬主要依靠人们对经济复苏预期以及美元快速走软，与其基本面供需并无较大关联。9The foreign price of f
9、uel oilNew York oil price broke 70 U.S. dollars, a record high of 7 months10Breaking news, events1. China National Petroleum Corporation have found a giant oil field which has a scale of 1 billion ton in Bo Hai Bay tidal area.2. The price of crude oil has declined over 70%.08年在衰退风潮的刺激下，盛极一时的原油价格，也从今
10、年7月11日的147.27美元每桶一路下滑至每桶35美元，跌幅超过70%。11123. NPC &CPPCC influenced world economy. 中国日报网中国在线消息：当地时间2日下午，包括全球主要经济体的二十国集团（G20）峰会在伦敦落幕。为应对全球金融危机，各国领导人同意斥资1.1万亿美元挽救全球经济。134.APEC summit meeting issued an statement that they object protecionism.5.Coal price overall worldwide falls on account of the slow dow
11、n of world economy. 6. That Iran keeps a hard-line stand in Nuclear Issues is still the core of geopolitical collision. The problem about Iranian Nuclear Issues appears sharper.14Conclusion 目前原油市场以及美元走势是整体商品走势领头目前原油市场以及美元走势是整体商品走势领头羊，而美元经过快速下挫后存在技术性反弹需求，羊，而美元经过快速下挫后存在技术性反弹需求，短期内将给予商品一定压力；原油市场短期将试短期内
12、将给予商品一定压力；原油市场短期将试探探70美元关口，若能站稳美元关口，若能站稳70美元则有进一步上行美元则有进一步上行空间，若遇阻原油或将回撤至空间，若遇阻原油或将回撤至62附近支撑位。中附近支撑位。中期来看原油仍保持着良好的上升通道，国内燃油期来看原油仍保持着良好的上升通道，国内燃油市场虽有基本面不利因素拖累其涨势，但在原油市场虽有基本面不利因素拖累其涨势，但在原油市场走好支撑下后期依旧维持震荡上行走势。市场走好支撑下后期依旧维持震荡上行走势。15二. Technical Analysis 16Influence of the foreign marketMarket：NYMEXChart
13、 Patterns： Daily Candlestick ChartingsRIS (relative strength indicator)美燃油08Date：09.6.81718Chart Patterns： weekly Candlestick ChartingsRIS (relative strength indicator)美燃油081920Market：NYMEXChart Patterns： Monthly Candlestick ChartingsRIS (relative strength indicator) 美燃油08Date：09年6月8日2122Market：上海交易
14、市场Chart Patterns： Daily Candlestick ChartingsRIS (relative strength indicator)燃油0908Date：09.6.82324Chart Patterns： weekly Candlestick ChartingsRIS (relative strength indicator)燃油09082526Market：上海交易市场Chart Patterns： Monthly Candlestick ChartingsRIS (relative strength indicator)燃油0908Date：09.6.82728CO
15、NCLUSIONIn short term, the price of fuel oil will keep oscillating.In long term. The price of fuel oil will surge or rise.29三. Final Suggestions短期内短期内，我组估计燃油价格会在上行通道内震荡上行，由于现在价位在通道偏顶部，如不能顺利上穿阻力线，价格必有调整，故我们建议，当价格调整到60日均线到30日均线之间时可逢低买入作多，到达阻力线附近价位时卖出，跌穿60日均线需止损，可波段操作。长期内，长期内，根据基本面情况来看，美原油价格65-90美元 为合理价格区，因此我国燃油价格仍有上涨空间，可长期持有.30
