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1、12-0112-0122-0312-0124-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1121-1213-0113-02()PEG20132201327OECD2012+16.9% +8.2%+9.7%121-12103.7124021-68766862huylcitics-8%+15%3412201212201370112-4.5%S1010510120019021-68761842ruanwsciticsS10105120800092013+16%1 21120123%2013-6%20121230%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%300+PE/P
2、B2008612012122. 2013-1-302012 12. 2013-1-213.20131ATCL4.201211. 2013-1-11. 2012-12-285.201211EPS2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPE2011 2012E 2013E 2014E. 2012-12-2029.201.742.472.873.2617121090.726.201313.681.001.201.381.5714111090.84. 2012-12-129.1824.019.471.090.730.561.101.050.631.341.310.771.581.660.84833
3、178231571812614110.641.041.187. 2012-12-712.9011.420.581.290.831.081.061.251.281.4322916111291080.742.598.201210TCLA2.3810.570.120.720.100.630.150.760.170.9220152417161414111.591.72. 2012-11-282013251212345678910111213151620132. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13.13.15.16. 17. 17. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4
4、. 4. 4. 514 2009-201217 201218 2012. 5. 5. 5. 5. 51920212223242526272930333435363738394041434447485253545520132. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 728 2009-201231 201232 201242 2009-201245 201246 2012. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.10.10.10.10.10.10. 11. 1149LCD. 1150 LCD. 1151LED/3D.12.12.12.12.1256P
5、E.1315201325758596061PBPEPBPEPB.13.13.13.14.14626364656667686970717273TCLTCLPEPEvs.vs.PEPBPEPBPEPBPEPBPEPB.14.14.15.15.15.15.16.16.16.16.16.167475PEPEvs.vs.17.17.1222012300.1834PEPE.18.18.19201322012CEIC20121-12+16.9%1-111.31-129.7%+8.2%20111 111233%412OECD12201212+15%124-4.5%-8%12123+4% +7% +2%2012
6、 12-7%-6%16%1 21112201212013PE/PB200822013201363%20132AQFII111-0811-1011-1122-0212-0412-0126-0812-1012-1211-1111-1212-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1111-1111-1212-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-08
7、12-0912-1012-1112-1220132ATCLCEIC16.9%11-11536120121-121.38.2%1-11214,0061-12150001000050000CEIC35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%6000500040003000200010000CEIC20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%9.7%201212201164733%314.35%1-12()201347.2%6040%10000040%5080000600004000020000030%20%10%0%-10%40302010020%0%-20%211-0611-0711-0811-09
8、11-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-06 11-08 11-10 11-12 12-02 12-04 12-06 12-08 12-10 12-12201321-1011% 12%1-11121-11463103.746.5%1211.2%1.9%OECD 123%16%99.5 98.8540%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%6105103101999795CEICOECD12-37%7377013.2%200415%41127591.983.77814001
9、2001000800600400200020%10%0%-10%-20%-30%140012001000800600400200020%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%11/811/1212/412/812/1211/811/1212/412/812/12312345678910 11 1212345678910 11 12201329102007201020082011200920122007201020082011200920121,5001,0005000108642012701+18%1290% 121020131231710.6%201220132013111270
10、0600500400300200100030%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%700600500400300200100030%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%11/811/1212/412/812/1211/811/1212/412/812/12120131411-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-081
11、2-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1231.7%32.9%2
12、8.0%25%6.1%10%2013212+37%42% 112+14%121234-4%201212%13142009-2012+50%40%30%20%10%0%+35% 28.3%20%15%5%0%30% 26.1% 25.8% 27.2%21.3%6.7% 6.7% 6.9%3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 4.1%200920102011201220121-121580%60%40%20%0%+1640%30%20%10%0%+17201218201240%30%20%10%0%+40%30%20%10%0%+2012124074/4%4%511-12 12-02 12-0412-06
13、12-08 12-1012-12JanFebMarApMrayJunJulAugSepOcNotvDec201321219201320132% 201220201336003300300027002400210018001500()()76007300700067006400610058005500520020001500100050002011201210.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%12+5%526-4.4%2013382131-7.7%143201212325-96%12318536-14%-11%0.83320092010120.
14、40.721221000800600400200030%-4% 20%10%0%-10%-20%1000800600400200030%-11%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%11-811-1212-412-812-1211-811-1212-412-812-12612345678910 11 1210 1111-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-121212345678920.5%20.3%13.3%15% 10.9% 10.3%9.5%6.3%10
15、% 5.8%5.9%2013223247006005004003002001000-8%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%2502001501005005%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%11-811-1212-412-812-1211-811-1212-412-812-12252620072010200820112009201220072010200820112009201250040030020010002.52.01.51.00.50.012114+3.5%+0.8%+28%20%27.6% 1230-28%1254-40%+3%-4.7%+10%-11%
16、1236-1%-45%+36%327282009-201230%20%10%0%21.7%5.7%30% 24.1%20% 10.4% 12.8%10.5%5%0%25% 21.3%5.8% 7.4%2009201020112012711-1212-0212-0412-0612-0812-1012-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-
17、0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-12JanFebMarApMrayJunJuAulgSepOcNotvDec11-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-12/20132293035%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%3140%30%20%10%0%2012
18、26.2%9.42%25%20%15%10%5%0%3240%30%20%10%0%201212.59%2012123509+6.8% 833121000/343%/24002200200018001600140012001000()()450043004100390037003500330031002900270025001200100080060040020002011201215.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%82013212493311-7%12-8%293465154-12%-21%+4.6%110.94353660015%70015%5004003002001
19、000-12%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%6005004003002001000-8%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%11/811/1212/412/812/1211/811/1212/412/812/12373840035030025020015010050010%-7% 5%0%-5%-10%-15%25020015010050060%50%40%30%-21% 20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%11/811/1212/412/812/1211/811/1212/412/812/1239402007201020082011200920122007201020082
20、0112009201240030020010002.52.01.51.00.50.0123456789 10 11 12123456789 10 11 12911-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-021
21、2-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1220%10%23.0%2013212129-3%-2%-5%12122862-10%-15%-8%-14%-16%201320%4142200
22、9-201230%25%20%15%10%5%0%27.7%13.3%6.0%30%25% 22.7%15.0%15%4.4%5%0%2009201023.2%19.6% 19.5%4.9% 5.7%201124.5%14.3%5.6%201220121-12434440%37.0%20%30%20%10%0%45201214.8%7.7%15%10%5%0%46201210.4%9.1%2.6%40%30%20%10%0%LG40%30%20%10%0%LG1011-1212-0212-0412-0612-0812-1012-1211-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-101
23、1-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1211-1011-12JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec12-1012-1211-812-2 12-4 12-6 12-8/201322012123.6% 0.1%21291.8%128563% 2012201347180017501700165016001550/400035004895090085080075020112012/12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%1212201212450.1-6%9785%1
24、1528.416.4%11127%140.2129% 12401112LED 3D94.5% 49.7%3,34837.2%3,4961249LCD%50LCD5004003002001000YOYYOY+30.0+20.0+10.0+0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.040%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%11%10-0810-1010-1211-0211-0411-0611-0811-1011-1212-0212-0412-0612-0812-1012-1211-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-07
25、12-0812-0912-1012-1112-1210-0810-1010-1211-0211-0411-0611-0811-1011-1212-0212-0412-0612-0812-1012-1211-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1213-0111-0211-0311-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-12
26、2013251LEDLED/3D5224-2730-331008060402001294.549.737.2843,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00040-4323%544-498,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,00016%220400%3%20%20125%201320131533232Open Cell39 LED4242LED46LED21Oct2012$129$104$224$228$289$36120Nov2012$130$106$225$228$289$36119Dec2012$130$107$225$228$289$36118
27、04Jan Feb2013 2013$127 $126$104 $103$222$220$224$222$284$282$356$354-$1-$1-$2-$2-$2-$22001501005003239LED46LED32Open Cell42LED400350300250200DisplaySearchDisplaySearch54551086420()25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%2520151050()50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Display SearchDisplaySearch12201322012PE10x201318x56PE57
28、PB40353025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind40353025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind58PE59PB3025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind3025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2
29、010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind1306-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0113-0108-06 08-12 09-06 09-12 10-06 10-12 11-06 11-12 12-06 12-122013260PE61PB201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 201
30、2-01 2013-01WindPE56611 2008726x 6 18x26PBPE PBPE1.8x4.2x 1.2 5.5x 1.2 4.7x20066 14xPE PB2008612201362PEvs.63PEvs.200660402001Wind100%50%0%-50%20082520151056Wind100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%142013264PE65PB201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind2018161412108642020
31、06-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind66TCLPE67TCLPB5432105432102007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-01WindWind1 2008 6TCLTCLPEPBPE64676 18x 13 54xPB0.6 2.7x 1.3x4.9xTCL PE/PBTCL2TCL2009PB2.5x1520132302520151068PEv
32、q302520151069PB502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind2570PE4071PB35201510503025201510502009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-01WindWind403530252015105072PE403530252015105
33、073PB2010-122011-062011-122012-062012-122010-122011-062011-122012-062012-12WindWindPEPB68731 20086PE11 32x 924xPE/PBPBPBPB2.04.9x20101.7125.4x 1.4x5.0xPEPE1340x2011 61606-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0108-05 08-11 09-05 09-11 10-05 10-11 11-05 11-11 12-0561201322 200815x20x20112011201020107420061PE
34、vs.7520086PEvs.PEPE6050403020100WindA100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%302520151050Wind100%50%0%-50%-100%QFIIzzzzz201318.3%3006.9%+10.1%+9.0%+9.2%1720132230020123002012123454.65.3-6.95.2-1.11.913.4-7.34.64.54.59.3-3.56.52.88.523.9-11.03.47.2-3.712.0-11.31.15.1-4.716.7-10.42.26.1-4.613.5-8.96.05.7-2.78.1-0.4-0.6
35、5.6-0.14.03.51.33.93.918.6-4.1-1.88.3-8.36.7-4.4-4.16.2-9.311.4-3.5-3.07.2-9.28.2-2.00.76.86-4.2-7.9-8.4-8.8-7.3-4.3 -10.9-3.7-4.2-4.5-3.1-0.1-6.67-4.1-9.0-4.0-12.0-14.9-12.1 -14.5-4.90.2-7.9-10.8-8.0 -10.48910-3.52.1-0.8-1.42.92.4-1.84.85.0-2.18.3-1.62.4-0.7-2.5-2.6-2.46.5-4.4-4.7-1.52.10.73.21.72.
36、75.81.56.1-0.85.9-2.9-1.70.9-4.57.3-0.9-6.8-0.811-2.9-2.43.9-1.3-9.2-12.6 -16.90.66.81.6-6.3-9.6 -14.01215.515.514.313.121.015.220.50.1-1.2-2.45.5-0.25.0201316.98.310.19.03.19.22.11.33.22.1-3.82.3-4.9WindTTMPE15.1x41%24%20133PETTMA300Wind25.766.812.223.015.1-41%24%21.567.99.717.011.7-46%21%31.372.11
37、1.830.916.8-46%42%33.487.016.028.321.8-35%37%2006840.180.316.934.126.1-35%55%201338.9106.115.033.031.0-20%107%2522.354.210.819.113.5-39%26%20.052.39.116.011.4-43%24%4PETTM1.151.480.831.171.11-3%34%0.971.510.670.920.87-10%28%1.412.860.761.331.24-12%63%1.502.351.001.551.617%62%1.804.160.681.631.927%18
38、3%1.753.460.801.832.2931%185%Wind2006820132516.8xTTM PE-46%11.721%TTM PE18201325TTMEPSA21.8xTCLPE20102011 2012E 2013E 2014E201020112012E2013E2014EPEG29.2013.689.1824.019.471.420.760.920.520.491.741.001.090.730.562.471.201.101.050.632.871.381.341.310.773.261.571.581.660.842118104619171483317121182315
39、10107181299614110.720.840.641.041.18STTCL7.8912.9011.422.3816.1014.847.2512.008.4010.187.579.838.000.430.510.640.050.800.320.780.640.280.530.570.390.330.170.581.290.120.880.920.660.750.350.620.600.550.340.560.831.080.101.001.000.610.720.360.450.650.530.310.641.061.250.151.221.180.700.820.460.620.700
40、.650.330.761.281.430.171.431.350.850.970.530.760.750.800.35182518482046919301913252446229201816111624171318241416112416151217232312192612129161313101518161115241010814111191216131012230.720.742.591.591.041.181.251.751.642.261.631.3424.236.440.370.190.260.331734252018.502.170.930.061.040.081.100.071.
41、310.101.520.11203418281730142212201.322.23A10.578.880.800.260.720.250.630.200.720.260.920.29133415361744143411311.727.008.060.470.480.560.6417171413A3.506.430.070.080.010.110.150.140.170.185080265582346213612.184.210.930.510.800.170.870.201.020.231.170.2613815251421121810161.131.6320132519-“”Analyst
42、 CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and
43、(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”/()(1)(2)/2013130020%63005%20%263006300300300300300300-10% 5%10%10%-10% 10%10%481568811001252220012251804826Foreign Broker-Dealer D
44、isclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-actionletters thereunder.Z203740001934“”15a-6(a) (2)15a-6
