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1、COPYRIGHT NPV CHINACHINA OUTLOOK 2009COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaNPV CHINA Business Consultingis an opportunity maker in the SINO-EUROPEAN Gateway.Being an opportunity maker we support both multinational and Chinese companies in developing their activities in China, gen
2、erating relationship, looking for investment opportunities and identifying the resources (tangible, intangible and human)they need to achieve their business goals.1COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina2AGENDAExecutive SummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalanc
3、eTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise2COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina3China,withits1.33billionpopulation,isthecountrywiththelargest potential for growth in the world andthusmust represent an essential
4、 part of each companys strategy,eitherasaproduction base orasafinal marketTheeconomyhasbeengrowingataverageratesof10.8% between2001and2008andisnow3rd largest in the world,accountingfor6% of global GDP;foreign trade hasbeengrowing dramatically (anaverageof25%CAGRbetween2004and2008),andforeign investm
5、ent haskeptpouringintothecountrywithactuallyutilizedforeigncapitalof92.4billionin2008,upby23.6%ForItaliancompanies,Chinarepresentsanextremely important opportunity onanyofthefollowing3 fronts:qSale:asafinalmarketwithmorethan1.33billionconsumersqDelocalization:asalowcostproductionbaseqPurchasing:asas
6、ourcingbaseExchange rate:qRMB/USDstoodat6.83attheendof2008,witha6.9%appreciationoftheendof2007qRMB/EURstoodat9.61attheendof2008,withan9.8%appreciationoftheendof2007Inflation:CPIin2008surgedto5.9%mainlyduetothesoaroffoodprice.Otherfactorssuchasincreaseofenergypriceandexcessliquidityinthefinancialmark
7、etmaykeepthemomentumofCPIStock Market:SSEcompositeindexplunges2/3fromthebeginningoftheyear;whetherthegovernmentshouldinterveneisunderintensedebateThenewLAWOFTHEPEOPLESREPUBLICOFCHINAONEMPLOYMENTCONTRACTScameintoeffectin1stJan,2008towardsmoreprotectionoftheemployeesThe29thOlympicGameswasheldsuccessfu
8、llyinBeijinginAugust,2008.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook,ChinaNationalStatisticsBureau,NPVanalysisCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina4AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChina at a GlancePoliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndust
9、ryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise4COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina5By 2050 it is expected that China will be the worlds number one economy Source:BRICReport,GoldmanSachsCHINA AT A GLANCE2025USDbn2050USDbnThe largest economies in Asia in 2025Th
10、e largest economies in the world in 2050COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina6Territory-9.6 millionkm2,1st inAsia, 3rdlargestintheworldPopulation-1,328 billionin2008(51,5%male,45.7%urban)-Annualgrowthrateofapproximately0.53%Capital-BeijingGovernment System-CommunistAdministrativ
11、e Divisions-4 level:Province(34)/Prefecture(333)/County(2860)/Townships(41040)Currency-RenMinBi(RMB)orYuan,semi-flexibleexchangerateLanguages -Mandarin,withCantoneseasthesecondmostcommonlanguageEthnicities-Han(92%)and55minorities(8%)ReligionBuddhism,Islam,Taoism,ChristianitySource:ChinaStatisticalYe
12、arbook,NPVanalysisCountry profile CHINA AT A GLANCECOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina7AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePolitical StructureNationalAccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise7CO
13、PYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina8POLITICAL STRUCTURESource:http:/afe.easia.columbia.edu/china/gov/chart.htm,NPVanalysisGovernment and Communist Party StructureCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina9BEIJINGSHANGHAITIANJINCHONGQINGHONGKONGMACAUXINJIANGTIBETQ
14、INGHAIGANSUSICHUANYUNNANINNER MONGOLIAGUIZHOUGUANGXIHUNANIHUBEISHAANXISHANXININGXIAHENANHEBEIGUANGDONGJIANGXIFUJIANANHUIZEJIANGSHANDONGHAINANLIAONINGJILINHEILONGJIANGTAIWANJIANGSUMunicipalityAutonomousregionSpecialadministrativeregionSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook,NPVanalysisAdministrative Division
15、23ordinaryprovinces(includingTaiwan)4Municipalities:BeijingChongqingShanghaiTianjin5Autonomousregions:GuangxiInnerMongoliaNingxiaTibetXinjiang2Specialadministrativeregions:HongKongMacauPOLITICAL STRUCTUREChina administrative divisionsCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina10Source
16、:ChineseGovernment,NPVanalysisCentralGovernmentMunicipalitiesProvinces,AutonomousRegionsSpecialAdministrativeRegionsDistrictsCountiesCitiesAutonomousprefecturesCounties,AutonomousCountiesDistrictsCountiesCitiesCountiesAutonomousCountiesTownshipsEthnictownshipsTownsPOLITICAL STRUCTUREChina administra
17、tive divisionsCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina11AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructureNational AccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise11COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookCh
18、inaOutlook,byNPVChina12China is the 3rd largest economy in the world in2008, 6% of grossworldproduct(2007)ConsideringtheGDP per capita,China isthe106th in the worldin2008(at$3,315)Chinese economy grows consistentlyreaching a 10% annual growth rateduringthelatestfiveyears.Chinas urban households per
19、capita disposable income growth has consistently been higher than CPI inflation, indicating a positive realgrowthinthepeopleslivingstandard.China GDP 2004 - 2008Peoples Income and CPI 2001-2008RMBBnNATIONAL ACCOUNTSSource:ChinaNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentReport,ChinaStatisticalYearbook, NPVa
20、nalysisCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina13Secondary industry is the dominant force in driving economy forward accounts for almost 50% of GDP, with CAGR 18.12% from 2000 - 2008Tertiary industry grows with CAGR 17.61% from 2000 -2008 GDP Breakdown 1978-2008Source:ChinaNational
21、EconomicandSocialDevelopmentReport,ChinaStatisticalYearbook,NPVanalysisNATIONAL ACCOUNTSCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina14Average GDP per capita in 2008: 3,315 USDShanghai is the richest province level area with a per capita GDP of 10, 922 USD in 2008.ZHEJIANG, JIANGSU, and
22、 GUANGDONG are the TOP 3 richest provinces43.1 % of populations GDP per capita is higher than averageChinahasreduced 62 million, 53% extreme povertyduringthepast20years.In1985Chinahad116millionpeoplelivingunder$1dollar-a-daypovertylevel.(*)GDP per capita ( USD )(*) MGI China consumer demand modelNAT
23、IONAL ACCOUNTSSource:ChinaNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentReport,ChinaStatisticalYearbook,NPVanalysisOver4,000USD/person464 millionBelow2,500USD/person347 millionOver2,500USD/person489 millionAverageCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina15AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlanceP
24、oliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalance TradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise15COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina16BALANCE TRADEImportExportExchangeVolumeCAGRBn USDForeign trade China Rest of world (2001
25、-2009)+ 27%+ 25%CAGR 02-09ESource:ChinaNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentReport, ChinaStatisticalYearbook,*EconomistIntelligenceUnit,NPVanalysis509.7620.88511154.514221760.42173.82561.63231.8COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina17BALANCE TRADEChinas Foreign trade by region / c
26、ountry in 2007% of total imports65%15%8%5%4%3%100% of total exports47%24%21%4%3%2%100%Top 3 countries by regionImports: country and % of region tradeJapanKoreaTaiwanGermanyRussiaFranceUSACanadaBermudaBrazilChileArgentinaAngolaSouthAfricaSudanAustraliaNewZealandNewGuineaUSAHongKongJapan22%17%16%32%14
27、%10%86%14%0,0%36%20%12%35%18%11%91%5%2%19%15%8%HongKongJapanKoreaGermanyHollandUKUSACanadaBermudaMexicoBrazilPanamaSouthAfricaEgyptNigeriaAustraliaNewZealandMarshalIslandJapanKoreaUSA32%18%10%17%14%11%92%8%0,1%23%22%11%20%12%10%85%10%2%14%11%7%Exports: country and % of region tradeBillion USDSource:
28、ChinaStatisticalYearbook2008(endof2007Data),NPVanalysis17COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina18AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalanceTradeChina DiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterp
29、rise18COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina19Eastern RegionShanghaiBeijingTianjinGuangdongShandongZhejiangJiangsuFujianHainanHebeiCentral RegionShanxiHenanHubeiHunanAnhuiJiangsuNortheastern RegionHeilongjiangJilinLiaoningNot IncludedTaiwanHongKongMacauWestern RegionInnerMongolia
30、ShaanxiNingxiaGansuChongqingSichuanGuizhouYunnanGuangxiQinghaiXinjiangTibetSource:ChineseNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,NPVanalysisCHINA DIVERSITYDivision of regionsCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina20474.8 Mn352.9 Mn385.1 Mn108.5 Mn Population by Urban and Rural Resi
31、dence and RegionSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook2008(endof2007Data),NPVanalysisCHINA DIVERSITYCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina21GDP and GDP Per Capita by RegionSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook2008(endof2007Data),NPVanalysisCHINA DIVERSITYGDP and GDP Per Capita by Region21COPY
32、RIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina22 Annual Income and Expenditure Per Capita by RegionRMBCHINA DIVERSITYSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook2008(endof2007Data),NPVanalysisCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina23WesternNortheasternCentralEasternUrban Household Expe
33、nditure BreakdownFoodClothingTransport and CommunicationEducation, Cultural and Recreation ServicesMiscellaneousCHINA DIVERSITYSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook2008(endof2007Data),NPVanalysisUrban Household Expenditure BreakdownCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina24WesternNorthea
34、sternCentralEasternRural Household Expenditure BreakdownFoodResidenceTransport and CommunicationEducation, Cultural and Recreation ServicesMiscellaneousCHINA DIVERSITYSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook2008(endof2007Data),NPVanalysisRural Household Expenditure Breakdown COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlo
35、okChinaOutlook,byNPVChina25NotethatTier3bisalsoreferredtoasTier4.OurreferencetoTier3combines3awith3bforatotalof620citiesCHINA DIVERSITYPyramid of Chinas tier cities41 cities occupy:49.9 % of GDP23.0 % of Population56.6 % of Market Sale of Consumer GoodsBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenChongqingTianji
36、nWuhanHangzhouNanjingFoshanChengduShantouXianShenyangJinanDongguanWenzhouTaizhouNingboZhongshanSuzhouChangzhouWuxiZhuhaiXiamenFuzhouQingdaoChangshaYantaiPutianZhengzhouTaiyuanKunmingTangshanChangchunShijiazhuangGuiyangHuaianHarbinZiboDalianLinyiNanchangZaozhuangXuzhouXiangfanBaotouUrumchiHuizhouLanz
37、houJilinDaqingHuzhouQuanzhouJinhuaJiaxingDongyingJinzhouShaoxingZhoushanYueyangQuzhouNantongShaoguanLiuzhouBaodingXianyangZhuzhouPingdingshanXinxiangHengyangBaoshanHuludaoBengbuZhengjiangLangfangExample citiesTier 1 - “ Big Four”4largestcitieswithhighestincome,largepopulationbase,andlargestGDPscaleT
38、ier 2a - “ Climbers ” ( 11 cities)Largepopulationbase,highincomeandlargeGDPTier 2b - “ Niches ” ( 10 cities)Wealthyconsumer,butrelativelysmalloverallmarketsizeTier 2c - “ Mainstream ” ( 16 cities)Relativelylowincome,butlargepopulationbaseTier 3a - “ Next frontier ” ( 136 cities)Growingmarketswithpop
39、ulationlargerthan1millionTier 3b - “ Poor cousins ” ( 484 cities)Smallcitieswithurbanpopulationsmallerthan1millionSource:CityNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentReport2008,NPVanalysisCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina26Tier1CityTier2aCityTier2bCityTier2cCitySource:ChinaStatis
40、ticalYearbook,NPVanalysis RegionNo. of citiesEastern29Central3Western5Northeastern4CHINA DIVERSITYGeographical distribution of Chinas tier 1 and tier 2 citiesCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina27Source:CityNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentReport2008,NPVanalysisBreakdown of
41、China marketCHINA DIVERSITYCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina28AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNational Economic PlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise28COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009
42、ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina29Source:TheOutlineofthe11thFive-YearPlan,NPVanalysisCurrent 2005Target 2010Increase/ DecreaseState of the art 2007Economic growth:GDP(trillionRMB)18.226.17.5%CAGR24.6GDPPercapita(RMB)13,98519,2706.60%18,696Economic structure:ShareofserviceindustrysvalueaddedtoGDP4
43、0.30%43.30%3%39.10%Shareofemploymentinserviceindustrytototalemployment31.50%35.30%3.80%32.40%ShareofR&DspendingoutoftotalGDP1.30%2%0.70%1.49%Urbanizationrate43%47%4%44.9%Population, resources, environment:Population(trillion)1.3081.3607.9CAGR1.320EnergyconsumptionperunitofGDP(tonstandardcoal/10000RM
44、B)1.220.98-20%1.21(2006)Totalacreageofcultivatedland(millionhectares)122120-1.60%122Public service, peoples life:Termofeducationpercapita(years)8.595.50%NodataCoverageofurbanbasicold-agepension(millionpeople)17422328%201Coverageofthenewruralcooperativemedicalcaresystem23.50%over80%Over56.5%85.70%Per
45、capitadisposableincomeofurbanresidents(RMB)10,49313,3905%CAGR13,786Percapitanetincomeofruralresidents(RMB)3,2554,1505%CAGR4,140THE FIVE-YEAR PLANTheFive-year planisaguidelineforChineseeconomicandsocialdevelopmentfrom2006to2010,itwasapprovedbytheTenthNationalPeoplesCongressinMarch,2006Itisbasedontwol
46、inesofstrategicthinking:thescientificconceptofdevelopmentandthebuildingasocialistharmonioussocietyCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina30Expansion of domestic demand:Investment and exportConsumption,investment,domesticandforeigndemandcombinedinabalancedmannerOptimizing industria
47、l structure:Industry and quantitative expansionBalanceddevelopmentoftheprimary,secondaryandtertiaryindustryandbystructuraloptimizationandupgradingEconomic GrowthResource conservation and environmental protection:Large amount of resources consumptionImprovementofresourcesutilizationefficiencySource:T
48、heOutlineofthe11thFive-YearPlan,NPVanalysisEconomic GrowthEconomic GrowthStillheavydependenceoninvestmentandexport;butconsumptioncontributesmorethanpastyearsSecondindustrydominates;tertiaryindustrylosesitsshareWaterutilizationefficiencyincreasesconsiderably;resourceconsumptionisheavy;forestsareplant
49、edThe basic policy orientation 1/2THE FIVE-YEAR PLANState of the art 2007COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina31Enhancing independent innovation capability:Input of capital and substance factorScienceandtechnologyadvancementandhumanresources.Deepening reform and opening up:Admin
50、istrative interventionGivingmoreplaytothefundamentalroleofthemarketinallocatingresourcesunderguidanceofmacroregulationandcontrolThe people-centered approach, improving living standard:Accumulation of material wealthOveralldevelopmentofthepeopleaswellasthebalancedeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Economic
51、 GrowthEconomic GrowthEconomic GrowthR&Dexpensegrowsover20%annually;eachleveleducationenrollmentincreasesSoaringinflationandhighvolatilityinfinancialmarketsurgemoreskilledandproperlevelofmacrocontrolsIncreasinghealthinstitutionsandculturalfacilities;peoplesincomegrowswithGDP;povertyreducesThe basic
52、policy orientation 2/2THE FIVE-YEAR PLANState of the art 2007Source:TheOutlineofthe11thFive-YearPlan,NPVanalysisCOPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina4 Trillion Yuan Investment plan to Stimulate Domestic MarketItemBrief DescriptionIndemnificatoryhouseconstructionLow-rent house bu
53、ilding, Nomadic peoples residential stabilization, renovation of old anddilapidatedhouseinruralareaInfrastructureconstructioninruralareaSecuritybuildingoffiredampandwatersysteminruralarea,Bettertheruralgridconstruction,reservoirsecurityproject,increasethesupporttohelpthepoorRailway, highway and airp
54、ort significantinfrastructureconstructionStrengthenthepassengersdedicatedline,coaltransportationlineandwesternarearailwayconstruction, better highway network, fasten the re-construction of urban grid, arrange theconstructionofmiddle-westairportMedicalsystemandeducationprogressStrengthen the medical
55、service system in rural area, fasten the re-construction of schooldormitoryinmiddle-westruralarea,promotethespecialeducationandcomprehensiveculturestationbuildingStrengthenecologicalenvironmentbuildingFastenurbansewageandsolidwastedisposalfacilityconstruction,preventionandcureonkeyriverbasinpollutio
56、n,strengthenforestsourceprotection,supportimportantenergysavingandemissionreducingproject.Fasten the self-creation and structureadjustmentSupport high-tech industry building, industrial technology progress, and service industrydevelopmentFastenthere-constructionafterearthquakeLand using plan, market
57、 service system, ecology recovery, rural area and urban systemconstructionandhousebuildingIncrease the residential income of bothurbanandruralarea.Increasetheminimumpurchasepriceofgrain,raisethecomprehensiveallowanceforfarmers,increase the social security level, continuous increasing the old-age pen
58、sion, subsidy forfarmersseedsbuyingVATReformImplementtheVATreforminwholecountrycoveringallindustries,encouragetheenterprisetechnologyre-construction,reducetheenterprisedutyaccountto120billionRMBEnhance the support to Finance tocontributetheeconomicgrowthCancelthecreditscalelimitoncommercialbank,reas
59、onableincreasingcreditscale,creditsupportonMergerandReintegrationproject,breedandstabilizetheconsumingcreditgrowthSource:32COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina10 Industries Promotion Plan in 20091/3Auto IndustryFrom20th/Janto31st/Dec,impose5%purchasetaxonautolessthan1.6Lemissio
60、nPromotethereintegrationofautoindustry,supportM&AofbigautogroupInfuture3years,Chinesegovernmentwillarrange10BlnRMBtosupportself-creationandtechnologyre-constructionChinesegovernmentwillarrangesubsidyfundtopromotetheenergy-savingandnew-energyautoinbigandmiddle-sizedcitiesEncourageautocompanytodevelop
61、brand,fastentheexportingbas,betterautoconsumingcreditSteel IndustryStrictcontrolonsteelproduction,eliminatetheprojectwithsingularpurposetoincreasetheproductioncapabilityTakeadvantageofleadingforceofbiggroup,encourageM&A,breedthehypersteelgroupwithinternationalcompetition,optimizedtheindustrialstruct
62、ure,enhancethecentralization;Deepenthetechnologyreconstruction,researchandimporting,createthespecializedfundinannualbudgettopromotethesteelindustrytechnologyprogress,adjusttheproductcategoriescompositionShip buildingThepolicytopromotefinancialinstituteenlargethebuyerscreditforshipexportertill2012Tex
63、tile IncreasethetextileexportingVATrefundfrom14%to15%GivecreditsupporttotextilecompanywithoperationalandfinancialdifficultyEncouragethefinancialsupportforsmallandmiddle-sizedenterprise,reducetheburdenoftextilecompanyCentralgovernment,localauthoritiesandenterpriseenlargethecottonpurchase33COPYRIGHT N
64、PV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina10 Industries Promotion Plan in 20092/3Equipment productionSupportfamousequipmentproducertoM&A,andpromotethehypergroupwithcapabilitiesofengineeringcontracting,systemintegration,internationaltradingandfinancePushstructureadjustment,transformthemethodofin
65、dustrygrowthFastenproductstandardssystem,developmodernproductionserviceindustry.Light IndustryStimulatetheconsumingofbothurbanandruralareatoincreasethedomesticdemandFastenthetechnologyprogress,especiallyequipmentself-owned,keytechnologyindustrialization,paperproduction,homeelectricapplianceandplasti
66、cstechnologyreconstructionStrengthenthesecurityoffood,strictthemarketentrancequalificationandbetterthepolicyofreturningandquittingmarket.Strengthentheself-ownedbrand,supportwell-knownbrandtomergercrossingregion,raisetheindustrycentralizationStrengthentheindustrialguidepolicy,promotethespecificindust
67、rialareaStrengthenenterprisemanagement,raisethequalityoflightindustryElectric information industryPerfectindustrymechanism,ensurethestablegrowth,strengthenthecomputerindustrycompetence,fastentheelectricelementupgradeandpromotetheindustrialtransformofaudioandvisualFocusontheestablishmentofself-owneda
68、ndcontrollableintegratedcircuit,increasethecapabilityofsoftwareself-developmentApplicationleadsthedevelopment,pushbusinesscreationandservicemodelcreation,strengtheninformationtechnologyapplicationinsociety,especiallythenewgrowthincommunicationequipment,informationserviceandITapplication34COPYRIGHT N
69、PV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina10 Industries Promotion Plan in 20093/3Petrochemical KeepthepetrochemicalindustrystableoperatingGuaranteetheagricultureproductionPlanthebigprojectiondistributionandpromotethetechnologyreformControlthetotalproductionvolumeandeliminatetheoutdatedproductio
70、ncapability LogisticsActivelyenlargethelogisticsmarketdemand,promotetheinteractionbetweenthelogisticscompanies,manufacturersandtradingcompanies,pushthelogisticsservicesocializationandprofessionalizationFastenthemergerandacquisition,breedbigandmodernlogisticsenterprisewithhighlevelserviceandinternati
71、onalcompetitionPromotethelogisticsserviceinenergy,mineral,auto,agricultureproducts,medicalproductionandothercoreindustries,fastentheinternationallogisticsandnon-dutylogisticsStrengthenthelogisticsfacilitiesconstruction,enhancethestandardizationandinformationsystemNonferrous metalStabilizeandenlarget
72、hedomesticmarket,bettertheexportingenvironment.Adjusttheproductcompositiontosatisfythedemandsofelectricity,transportation,construction,machinery,lightindustryandsoson.SupporttheexportingproductcombinedwithhightechnologyandunderdeepprocessingStrictlycontrolthetotalvolume,andeliminatetheoutdatedcapaci
73、tyTechnologyandresearchreformandpushtechnologyprogressPromotetheindustryre-integration,optimizethestructure,strengthentheenterprisemanagementandsecurityinspection,enhancethecompetitionTakefulluseofbothdomesticandoverseasresourcetosecurethenaturalsources.Buildtherecyclingsystemofnonferrousinwholenati
74、on,developrecyclingeconomyandincreasethecomprehensiveusageofnaturalsource.Thegovernmentarrangetheloantosupporttheenterprisereconstructionandadjusttheproductexportingtaxrefundstructure.35COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina36AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructure
75、NationalAccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustry DistrictIndustryOrganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise36COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaGeographic distribution of 10 encouraged industries AutoThrough merger & acquisition to create 2 or 3 huges
76、caleautogroups.TheFAWgroup(Jilin),SAICgroup(Shanghai),DongfengMotor(Hubei),Changan(Chongqing),Chery(Anhui)arethetop5currently.SteelMove the current factories to the coast to buildZhanjiang,Fangchenggang, Rizhao and Guangdongsteelbases.ThemainmanufacturersincludeBaosteel(Shanghai),WuGang(Wuhan),LaiGa
77、ng(Shandong).Ship buildingTo build two huge ship building groups: China stateshipbuildingcorporateandChinashipbuildingindustrycorporate. The Bohai gulf, Yangtze river estuary andPearlestuarywillbe3manufacturebasesinfuture.TextileAfter increasing the VAT refund rate, Chinese textilemanufacturersgains
78、upportfromgovernment.Zhejiang,Guangdong,Henan,Shandongarethemainmanufactureareas.Electric informationThisindustryismainlylocatedinYangtzeRiverdelta(Suzhou,Shanghai),Bohaidelta(Beijing),Pearldelta(Shenzhen), South-eastern coastal (Xiamen) andSouth-west(Chengdu,Xian).Equipment productionUnder the prom
79、otion policy of reorganization andacquisition,Guangxi,Xuzhou,Hunan,Jilin,Shanxi,Jiangsuwillbemanufacturebases.Light industryChinese government will put more efforts tosupervise the food security and stimulate thedomestic demands. Fujian, Guangxi, Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Xinjiang,Henanwillbemoreactiveinligh
80、tindustrydevelopment.PetrochemicalUnder the policy of cancellation of capacity -enlargementprojects,thepetrochemicalindustrywillbelocatedascurrentmap.Shandong,Henan,Jilin,Shanxi, Chongqing and Xinjiang are the basescurrently.Nonferrous metalThereareseveralnonferrous-metalbasesinChina,including Jiang
81、xi (copper), Guangxi (aluminum),Yunnan(Lead),InnerMongolia(Metalcomplex).LogisticsYangtze delta, Pearl delta, North-eastern China,ShandongPeninsulaandSoutheasterncoastalareaarethemainareas.37COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina38BEIJINGSHANGHAITIANJINCHONGQINGHONGKONGMACAUXINJI
82、ANGTIBETQINGHAIGANSUSICHUANYUNNANINNER MONGOLIAGUIZHOUGUANGXIHUNANHUBEISHAANXISHANXININGXIAHENANHEBEIGUANGDONGJIANGXIFUJIANANHUIZEJIANGSHANDONGHAINANLIAONINGJILINHEILONGJIANGTAIWANJIANGSUSource:ChinaStatisticalYearbook,NPVanalysis10 Industries Under PromotionIndustry District MapAutoSteelShipbuildin
83、gTextileElectricInformationEquipmentProductionLightIndustryPetrochemicalNonferrousMetalLogistics38COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina39AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustry O
84、rganizationLegalStructureforForeignEnterprise39COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina2002-2008 Development of Business Entities in ChinaYearNo.ofEnterprise(includingsubsidiaries)No.ofIndividualIndustriesandBusinessesSumDomesticEnterpriseForeignEnterpriseState-OwnedPrivate20027,34
85、2.64,445.12,638.3259.223,774.920037,695.74,123.63,287.2285.023,531.920048,138.13,797.64,024.1316.423,504.920058,569.03,496.54,719.5353.024,638.920069,190.73,372.65,441.4376.725,956.120079,639.73,202.76,030.5406.427,415.320089,714.62,705.46,574.2434.929,173.3Unit: 1,000Source:YearEnterprises(includin
86、gsubsidiaries)IndividualIndustriesandBusinessesSumDomesticEnterpriseForeignEnterpriseState-OwnedPrivate200219.6712.782.484.420.38200323.2414.733.534.980.42200426.3415.734.795.830.51200528.9716.356.136.50.58200633.2518.087.607.570.65200738.6721.209.398.080.74200843.4822.8411.748.900.90Unit: 1 Trillio
87、n RMBAmount of Business EntitiesRegistered Capital of Business Entities40COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaIndustry Distribution of Business EntitiesPercentage No. of Business Entities (end of 2008)Percentage Registered Capital (end of 2008)Source:5 Industries with Most Busin
88、ess Entities (end of 2008)41COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaPrivate Enterprises in ChinaChineseprivateenterprisesmaintainedstronggrowthmomentumandcontributedsignificantlytoChineseeconomicgrowth. By the end of 2008, there were 6.57 million Chinese private enterprises in Chin
89、a, up by 9.02%. Actualregisteredcapital11.74 trillion RMB,upby25.02%.In 2008 newly registered private enterprises were 1.06 million (including subsidiaries), newly increased registeredcapital1.6 trillion,newlyemployedpeople9,103 million.Bytheendof2008137 millionpeoplewereemployedinChineseprivateente
90、rprises,upby7.3%,takingup18%oftotalemployedpeopleinChina.IthelpsresolvetheunemploymentinChinatoagreatextent.Theimplementationofnew“CompanyLaw”hasloweredtheinvestmentthresholdofcorporationsandprotectedmoresmallandmediuminvestorsrights.Bytheendof2008,thenumberofprivatecorporationsreached11,200with112,
91、700investors(upby76.37%);registeredcapital3.13 trillion RMB,upby189%.Economic Contribution of Chinese Private Equity (end of 2008)Source:42COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaForeign Enterprises Origination in ChinaBytheendof2008,enterprisesofothercountriesinAsiantakeup58.78%of
92、totalnumberofforeignenterprises.LatinAmericagrewfastestamongalltheareasin2008thenumberofforeignenterprisefirstexceededNorthAmerica,ranking2nd.Duetosoundeconomicprocessandpolicyenvironmentintimeofthecrisis,foreigninvestmentfromAsiastill maintainedits momentumin 2008. Representedby United States, inve
93、stors from North AmericachosetoinvestinChina.HongKongenterprisestakeup34.3%oftotalnumber.HKinvestorslongcooperationhistoryandhighexpectationonresourcesandinvestenvironmentofmainlandChinawillkeepHKenterprisesincreaseanddominantinnumberinfuture.Investment Origin by Continent (end of 2008)6 Largest Ori
94、gination Countries (end of 2008)43COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaTypes of Foreign Enterprises in ChinaThereare3organizationtypesofforeignenterprisesinChina:Wholly-owned Foreign Enterprise-100%ownedbyoneormoreforeignentitiesSino-foreign Joint VenturenEquity JointChineseinve
95、stor(s)andforeigninvestor(s)raisepartofthecapitalrespectivelynContract ShareCooperationbasedoncontractForeign-invested Limited Liability CompanyforeigninvestorsholdpartofequityDistribution of Organization Types (end of 2008)No. of Enterprises: 257,500No. of Enterprises: 111,300No. of Enterprises: 61
96、,600No. of Enterprises: 4,500Source:Source:44COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaIndustry Allocation of Foreign Enterprises in ChinaPercentage No. of Business Entities (end of 2008)Percentage Registered Capitals (end of 2008)5 Largest Industries in Total No. and Newly Registere
97、d No. (end of 2008)Source:45COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina46AGENDAExecutiveSummaryChinaataGlancePoliticalStructureNationalAccountsBalanceTradeChinaDiversityNationalEconomicPlanIndustryDistrictIndustryOrganizationLegal Structure for Foreign Enterprise46COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2
98、009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaCorporate & Investment.1.CorporateLawofP.R.ChinaThisLawisformulatedinordertostandardizetheconductofpartnerships,toprotectthelawfulrightsandinterestsofpartnershipsandthepartnerstherein,tosafeguardsocialandeconomicorder,andtopromotethedevelopmentofsocialistmarkete
99、conomy2.LawofThepeoplesRepublicofChinaonChinese-ForeignContractualJointVenturesThisLawisformulatedtoexpandeconomiccooperationandtechnologicalexchangewithforeigncountriesandtopromotethejointestablishment,ontheprincipleofequalityandmutualbenefit,byforeignenterprisesandothereconomicorganizationsorindiv
100、idualsandChineseenterprisesorothereconomicorganizationsofChinese-foreigncontractualjointventureswithintheterritoryofthePeoplesRepublicofChina3.LawofThePeoplesRepublicofChinaonChinese-ForeignEquityJointVenturesTheseRegulationsareformulatedwithaviewtofacilitatingthesmoothimplementationoftheLawofthePeo
101、plesRepublicofChinaonChinese-ForeignEquityJointVentures4.WhollyForeign-ownedEnterpriseLawWithaviewtoexpandingeconomiccooperationandtechnicalexchangewithforeigncountriesandpromotingthedevelopmentofChinasnationaleconomy,thePeoplesRepublicofChinapermitsforeignenterprises,otherforeigneconomicorganizatio
102、nsandindividualstosetupenterpriseswithforeigncapitalinChinaandprotectsthelawfulrightsandinterestsofsuchenterprises5.CataloguefortheGuidanceofForeignInvestmentIndustriesThiscatalogueistheguidanceofforeigninvestmentindustriesincludingpromotedindustries,restrictedindustriesandforbiddenindustries6.Measu
103、resforTheAdministrationonForeignInvestmentinCommercialFieldsInordertofurtherexpandtheopen-uptotheoutsideworldandimprovetheconstructionofmarketcirculationsystem.ThepresentMeasuresareherebyformulatedinaccordancewiththeLawofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaonSino-foreignEquityJointVentures,theLawofthePeoplesRe
104、publicofChinaonSino-foreignContractualJointVentures,LawofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaonWhollyForeign-ownedEnterprises,andtheCompanyLaw,andotherrelevantlawsandadministrativeregulations47COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaFinance1.Measuresforstrategicinvestmentbyforeigninvestorsupo
105、nlistedcompaniesThismeasuresaimstostandardizestrategicinvestmentofforeigninvestorsonA-sharescompanyafterthereformofnon-tradablesharesoflistedcompany,tomaintainsecuritiesmarketorder,tointroduceforeignadvancedmanagementexperience,technologyandcapital,toamelioratestructuralgovernanceoflistedcompany,top
106、rotectthelawfulrightsoflistedcompaniesandtheshareholders2.ProvisionsonTheMergerAndDivisionofEnterpriseswithForeignInvestmentTheseProvisionsareformulatedinaccordancewiththeCompanyLawofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaandthelawsandadministrativeregulationsconcerningenterpriseswithforeigninvestmentforthepurpos
107、eofregulatingtheactsrelatingtothemergeranddivisionofenterpriseswithforeigninvestmentandprotectingthelegitimaterightsandinterestsoftheinvestorsandcreditors3.EstablishmentofSecuritiesCompanieswithForeignEquityParticipationRulesTheseRulesmeettheneedsoftheopeningupofthesecuritiesmarkettoforeigninvestmen
108、t,tostrengthenandimprovetheoversightofsecuritiescompanieswithforeignequityparticipationandtoclarifytheconditionsandproceduresfortheestablishmentofsecuritiescompanieswithforeignequityparticipation4.ProvisionalMeasuresonAdministrationofDomesticSecuritiesInvestmentsofQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvest
109、ors(QFII)BaseduponChinasrelevantlawsandadministrativeregulations，thisRegulationwaspromulgatedforthepurposeofgoverningQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsinvestmentsinChinassecuritiesmarketandpromotingdevelopmentsofChinassecuritiesmarket5.EstablishmentofCompanieswithanInvestmentNaturebyForeignInves
110、torsProvisionsInordertopromoteinvestmentinChinabyforeigninvestorsandattractforeignadvancedtechnologyandmanagementexpertise，foreigninvestorsarepermittedtoestablishcompanieswithaninvestmentnatureinChinainaccordancewiththerelevantlawsandregulationsofChinaonforeigninvestmentandtheseProvisions48COPYRIGHT
111、 NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaSpecific Industries1/21.ConcerningRegulatingtheAccesstoandAdministrationofForeignInvestmentintheRealEstateMarketForthepurposeofasounddevelopmentoftherealestatemarketandupontheconsentoftheStateCouncil,suggestionsareherebyputforwardconcerningtheaccessto
112、andadministrationofforeigninvestmentintherealestatemarket2.AutomotiveindustrydevelopmentpolicyThePolicyhasbeenspecificallyformulatedinresponsetotherequirementsofcontinuouslyimprovingthesocialistmarketeconomicstructureandtothenewsituationthathasdevelopedinthedomesticandforeignautomotiveindustriessinc
113、eChinasaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization;andinordertopromotetheadjustmentandupgradingofthestructureoftheautomotiveindustry,comprehensivelyenhancetheinternationalcompetitivenessoftheautomotiveindustry,satisfytheever-increasingconsumerdemandforautomobileproductsandpromotethehealthydevelopmentofthea
114、utomotiveindustry.Itisanticipatedthat,throughtheimplementationofthisPolicy,Chinasautomotiveindustrywilldevelopintoapillarindustryofthenationaleconomybefore2010,thusallowingittomakeanevengreatercontributiontocomprehensivelyrealizingtheobjectiveofcreatingamoderatelywell-offsociety.3.AdministrationofFo
115、reign-fundedInternationalFreightForwardingAgenciesProceduresTheseMeasuresareformulatedinaccordancewiththeStatelawsandregulationsconcerningforeign-investedenterprisesandthePRC Administration of the International Freight Forwarding Agency Business Provisionsinordertopromotethehealthydevelopmentofthein
116、ternationalfreightforwardingagencybusinessinChina,andtoregulatetheestablishmentandoperationalconductofforeign-investedinternationalfreightforwardingagencies.4.RegulationonDirectSellingAdministrationThislawisenactedforthepurposeofregulatingthedirectSellingbehaviors,strengtheningthesupervisiononthedir
117、ectsellingactivities,preventingfraudandprotectingconsumerslegitimaterightsandthesocialandpublicinterests.5.AdministrationofCommercialFranchiseProceduresTheseProceduresareformulatedinordertostandardizecommercialfranchising，tosafeguardthelawfulrightsandinterestsoftheparties，andtopromotethehealthyandor
118、derlydevelopmentofcommercialfranchise.6.RenewableEnergyLawThislawmainlyincludestheaspectsofestablishingtheplanofrenewablepowergeneration,eliminatingtheobstacleforgridrenewablepower,obtainingreasonablereturn.49COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChinaSpecific Industries2/21.Administr
119、ationofForeign-fundedTelecommunicationsEnterprisesProvisionsTheseRegulationshavebeenformulatedpursuanttorelevantlawsandadministrativeregulationsonforeigninvestmentandthePRC,TelecommunicationsRegulations,inordertorespondtotherequirementsofopeningthetelecommunicationsindustrytoforeigninvestmentandtopr
120、omotethedevelopmentofthetelecommunicationsindustry.2.TheProvisionsonTheAdministrationofForeign-fundedAdvertisingEnterprisesWithaviewtostrengtheningtheadministrationontheforeign-fundedadvertisingenterprises,andpromotingthesounddevelopmentofadvertisingindustry,thepresentProvisionsareformulatedinaccord
121、ancewiththelawsandadministrativeregulationsgoverningthemanagementofforeigninvestmentsandadvertisements.3.ForeignInvestmentinCinemasTentativeProvisionsTheseProvisionsareformulatedinaccordancewiththePRC，Sino-foreignEquityJointVentureLaw，thePRC，Sino-ForeignCo-operativeJointVentureLaw，theAdministrationo
122、fFilmsRegulationsandtherelevantlawsandregulationsinordertomeettheneedsofreformandopeningup，absorbforeigncapital，importadvancedtechnologyandequipment，andpromoteprosperousdevelopmentofthefilmindustryinChina.4.InterimProceduresfortheExperimentofTravelServiceswithChineseandForeignInvestmentsTheseProcedu
123、resareformulatedinaccordancewiththeLawofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaConcerningChinese-ForeignJointVenturesandtheRegulationsonTravailServicesAdministrationaswellasrelevantlawsandregulationswithaviewtofurtherextendingtheopeningupofthetourismindustrytotheoutsideworldandpromotingthedevelopmentofthetourismi
124、ndustry.5.InterimMeasuresforAdministrationofChinese-foreignJointVentureandCooperativeMedicalInstitutionsTheseMeasuresareformulatedinaccordancewiththepertinentstatelawsandadministrativeregulationssuchastheLawofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaonChinese-foreignEquityJointVentures,theLawofthePeoplesRepublicofC
125、hinaonChinese-ForeignContractualJointVentures,theRegulationsfortheAdministrationofMedicalInstitutionsforthepurposeoffurthercateringtotheneedsofreformsandopeninguptotheoutsideworld,enhancingtheadministrationofChinese-foreignjointequityventureandcooperativemedicalinstitutionsandpromotingthehealthydeve
126、lopmentofthemedicalandhealthundertakingsofthecountry.50COPYRIGHT NPV CHINA2009ChinaOutlookChinaOutlook,byNPVChina51NPV China ContactsNPVChinaBusinessConsulting(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.GuangdongRoad500,Room2406,200001,Shanghai,P.R.ChinaPhone+862161528632Fax:+862161528635Ihttp:/NPVS.p.AViaAndreaAppiani,1220121Milan,ItalyPhone+3902366933.50Fax:+3902366933.60Ihttp:/
