《CHINACEMENTSECTORANNUALRESULTSPREVIEW：CNBMTOBEATEXPECTATIONS0131》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《CHINACEMENTSECTORANNUALRESULTSPREVIEW：CNBMTOBEATEXPECTATIONS0131（12页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、thththThe CSWSResearchCo.Ltd99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+IndustryResearchJan31,2013NeutralUnchangedAnalystRongYeA0230512110001AYZ033ContactWennieLv(8621)RelatedReportsChinaCementSectorFieldtripfeedbackV:S&DdynamicsinBeijingTianjinHebeiareapoisedtoimprovein2013,7Dec2012ChinaCementSectorPreCNYpricecoll
2、apsealongYangtzeRiverunlikely,Southernmarketpricesmostvulnerable,26thNov2012ChinaCementSectorEarlysignsofpricecorrections,timetotakeprofit,12Nov2012ChinaCementSectorFieldtripfeedbackIV:fundamentalscontinuetosurpriseontheupside,6Nov2012Chicompany doesSnot hold anyequities or derivatives of the listed
3、company mentioned in this report(“target”), but then we shall providefinancial advisory services subject tothe relevant laws and regulations.Any affiliates of the company mayhold equities of the target, whichmay exceed 1 percent of issuedshares subject to the relevant lawsTheChineseViewonChinaChinaC
4、ementSector2012annualresultspreview:CNBMtobeatexpectationsInvestmentHighlights: Summary: We expect HKlisted cement companies to post a 20%80% YoY decline in2012earnings,withthebiggestupsidesurprisecomingfromCNBMmainlyduetohigherthanexpectedmarginsinitsSouthwestCementin4Q12. Where we differ from cons
5、ensus: CNBM (3323 HK): 2012 earnings to beat, 2013 Southwest region margin upside WeexpectCNBMtodeliver2012salesof230Mtonnes,withcementproductGPofRMB67/T.Wethereforeexpectthebottomlinetodecline21%YoY,withEPSofRMB1.17(18%higherthanBBconsensus).CNBMlikelyconsolidatedc.90MTofcementcapacitythroughSouthw
6、estCementlastyear,withtotalcapacitythereforereaching350MT(+35%YoY).Lookingforward,weseefurthermarginupsideintheSouthwestChinacementmarketduetoimprovingpricedisciplineonhighermarketconcentration. Anhui ConchH (914 HK): 2012 earnings in line, 2013 recovery scenario pricedin WeexpectAnhuiConchtodeliver
7、2012salesvolumeof188MTwithunitGPofRMB66/T.Assuch,weexpectthebottomlinetodecline46%YoYin2012.Using13x13EP/E,weestimatethatthecurrentsharepricehasfactoredin2013GP/TofRMB90,whichisRMB25higherthanthefigureofRMB66seenin2012.WebelievearecoveryhasbeenpricedintoConchHshares. Shanshui Cement (691 HK): 2012 e
8、arnings 6% below consensus, margin dilution risk in 2013 We expect Shanshui todeliver2012salesvolumeof57MT,withGP/TofRMB67.Assuch,weexpectthebottomlinetodecline36%YoYin2012.Shanshuihas10productionlinesunderconstructionwith78linestobelaunchedin2013.Assuch,lowermarginsinShanxi/InnerMongoliaandhigherco
9、stsduringthetrialperiodwilllikelydilutethecompanysoverallGP/Tin2013. West China Cement (2233 HK): 2012 earnings 9% below consensus, supply risksin 2013 We expect WCC to deliver 2012 salesvolumeof15MT,withGP/TofRMB49.Assuch,weexpectbottomlinetodecline37%YoYin2012.Recentchannelchecksindicatethatnewsup
10、plyin2013islikelytoexceedexpectations.WebelievehigherthanexpectednewcapacitywillbeachallengeforpricedisciplineinShaanxi. Asia Cement China (743 HK): 2012 earnings in line, 2013 earnings leveraged to Central/Eastern China We expect ACC to deliver 2012 sales volume of 23M T,withGP/TofRMB47.Wetherefore
11、expectthebottomlinetodecline78%YoYin2012.70%ofthecompanyssalesareinthemid/lowerregionsoftheYangtzeRiver(Central/EasternChina),whereweexpecttoseeincrementalimprovementsin2013.and regulations. The company mayalso provide investment bankingservices to the target. The Companyfulfills its duty of disclos
12、ure within itssphere of knowledge. The clientsCompanySalesvolume,MT2012GP,RMB/T2012EPSpreview,RMB%YoY2012EPSconsensusRiskvsconsensusmay forrelevant disclosure materials or loginto underdisclosure column for furtherinformation. The clients shall have acomprehensive understanding of thedisclosure an
13、d disclaimer upon thelast page.AnhuiConch,914HKCNBM,3323HKShanshui,691HKWCC,2233HKACC,743HK18823057152366676749471.181.170.510.090.1946%21%36%37%78%1.210.990.550.100.203%18%6%9%3%Jan31,2013投资要点：摘要：我们预计香港上市的水泥公司整体将有大约 20%-80%的 2012 年报净利润同比下滑。其中我们认为中国建材受益于西南水泥高于预期的 4 季度盈利，2012 年净利将超预期 18%。有别于大众的不同之处：中
14、国建材（3323 HK）：2012 年业绩超预期，2013 年将受益于西南水泥毛利改善 我们预测中国建材 2012 年销售量为 2.3亿吨，水泥吨毛利 67 元/吨。预计公司 2012 年的净利将同比下降 21%，对应每股收益 1.17 元（高出彭博一致预期 18%）。中国建材通过南方水泥在去年收购了 9000 万吨左右的水泥产能，使得其总产能达到近 3.5 亿吨，同比增长约 35%。我们认为未来西南市场集中度提高将进一步改善协同效果和提价能力，西南地区水泥市场有进一步上行机会，利好西南水泥。海螺水泥（914 HK）：2012 年盈利符合预期，2013 年复苏预期已经反映在股价中 我们预计海螺
15、水泥 2012 年的销售量为 1.88 亿吨，水泥吨毛利为 66元/吨。预计公司 2012 年的净利将同比下降 46%。按 13 倍的 2013 年市盈率测算，海螺当前的股价隐含了 90 元/吨的 2013 年吨毛利，这比 2012 年平均 66元/吨的水平高出了 25 元左右。我们认为 2013 年的复苏情形已经被反应在当前的股价当中。山水水泥（691 HK）：2012 年盈利或低于市场一直预期 11%，2013 年吨毛利提升有挑战 我们预计山水水泥 2013 年的销售量为 5700 万吨，水泥吨毛利为 67 元/吨。预计公司 2012 年净利同比下滑 36%。公司目前有 10 条生产线在建
16、：山东 1 条，内蒙古 2 条，东北 2 条，山西 5 条。其中 7-8 条将会在2013 年投产。因此，山西/内蒙古较低的吨毛利和在调试阶段更高的生产成本将很可能摊薄公司 2013 年的平均吨毛利。西部水泥（2233 HK）：2012 年盈利或低于市场预期 9%，2013 年面临供给压力 我们预计西部水泥 2012 年的销售量为 1500 万吨，水泥吨毛利为 49元/吨。因此，我们预计西部水泥的 2012 年的净利将同比下降 37%。我们近期调研发现 2013 年陕西地区的新增产能可能会高于预期。我们认为高于预期的新产能释放将会给区域价格协同带来挑战。亚洲水泥（中国）（743 HK）：201
17、2 年盈利符合预期，2013 年盈利将受益华中/华东市场的改善 我们预计山水水泥 2013 年的销售量为 2300 吨，水泥吨毛利为 47 元/吨。预计公司 2012 年净利同比下滑 78%。公司 70%的销售量来源于长江中下游地区（华中/华东），而我们认为该区域水泥市场的供求关系在 2013 年将会有改善。IndustryResearchBuildinPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage1 Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinTable of Contents Summary1CNBM(3323H
18、K):2012earningstobeat,2013Southwestregionmarginupside1AnhuiConchH(914HK):2012earningsinline,2013recoveryscenariopricedin3ShanshuiCement(691HK):2012earnings6%belowconsensus,margindilutionriskin20134WestChinaCement(2233HK):2012earnings9%belowconsensus,supplyrisksin20135AsiaCementChina(743HK):2012earni
19、ngsinline,2013earningsleveragedtoCentral/EasternChina6 PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage2Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildin Chart & TableFig 1: We see 18% upside for CNBMs 2012 earnings. . 1Fig 2: Southwest Cement is likely to post higherthanexpected unit GP in 4Q12. . 1Fig 3: Cemen
20、t margins in Southwest are among the lowest in China. 2Fig 4: We expect Conch to deliver sales volume of 54M T with unit GP of RMB 82 in 4Q12. 3Fig 5: ConchHs current share price has factored in 2013 unit GP of RMB90. . 3Fig 6: We expect Shanshui to deliver sales volume of 32M T with unit GP of RMB
21、63 in 2H12. 4Fig 7: Benchmark prices dropped HoH in Shanshuis core markets in 2H12. . 4Fig 8: Shanshui has 10 production lines under construction. . 4Fig 9: We expect WCC to deliver sales volume of 8.6M T with unit GP of RMB50 in 2H12 . 5Fig 10: We expect railways alone to drive 1.5M T of cement dem
22、and in Shaanxi in 2013. . 5Fig 11: We expect 8M T of new capacity to commence production in 2013 in Shaanxi. 5Fig 12: We expect ACC to deliver sales volume of 13M T with unit GP of RMB47 in 2H12 . 6Fig 13: Benchmark cement prices dropped HoH in ACCs core markets in 2H2012 . 6Pleaserefertothelastpage
23、forimportantdisclosuresPage3Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinSummaryWeexpectHKlistedcementcompaniestoposta20%80%declinein2012earnings,withthebiggestupsidesurprisecomingfromCNBMmainlyduetohigherthanexpectedmarginsinsouthwestcementmarketin4Q12.Fig 1: We see 18% upside for CNBMs 2012 earnings.CompanySa
24、lesvolume,MT2012GP,RMB/T2012EPSpreview,RMB%YoY2012EPSconsensusRiskvsconsensusAnhuiConch,914HKCNBM,3323HKShanshui,691HKWCC,2233HKACC,743HK18823057152366676749471.181.170.510.090.1946%21%36%37%78%1.210.990.550.100.203%18%6%9%3%Source:Bloomberg,SWSResearchCNBM(3323HK):2012earningstobeat,2013Southwestre
25、gionmarginupsideWeexpectCNBMtodeliver2012salesof230Mtonnes,withcementproductunitGPofRMB67/T.Wethereforeexpectthebottomlinetodecline21%YoY,withEPSofRMB1.17(18%higherthanBBconsensus).Fig 2: Southwest Cement is likely to post higherthanexpected unit GP in 4Q12.Blended,RMB/TVolume,MASPACPGP/T1Q113031421
26、11022Q11533152051103Q11483062041024Q1153328239891Q1236291226652Q1260265199663Q1263253195574Q12E72263186772012E23026519867CUVolumeASPACPGP10.62982089019292196961529320885162802047610274214601825919268162561906618260188726226119467SCVolumeASPACPGP18.1327219108273452131322633022410630334245891829723760
27、28261199623023119041352501757511125519560NCVolumeASPACPGP123520035627820870533821112763612021592.434721713073532171377360243117834323810524351231120SWVolumeASPACPGP3281240415.828125130721617343102371875011254182723424619352Source:Companydata,SWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures
28、Page1FujianNingxiaZhejiangGuizhouYunnanChongqingSichuanGuangdongJiangsuHainanJilinQinghaiShanxiShaanxiHebeiNationalaverageGuangxiAnhuiShandongHenanInnerMongoliaXinjiangHubeiJiangxiHunanGansuLiaoningHeilongjiangJan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinCNBMlikelyconsolidatedc.90MTofcementcapacitythroughSouthw
29、estCementin2012,withtotalcapacitythereforereaching350MT(+35%YoY).Lookingforward,weseefurthermarginupsideintheSouthwestChinacementmarketduetoimprovingpricedisciplineonhighermarketconcentration.CementmarginsinSouthwestareamongthelowestinChina,withlimiteddownsiderisksduetocostsupport.Morespecially,weex
30、pectCNBMtoraiseitsshareoftheSichuanmarketfrom9%in2011to30%in2013.Highermarketconcentrationisimprovingthecompanyspricingpower.Assuch,SouthwestCementsunitGPhasimprovedfromRMB37/Tin1H12toRMB60/70pertonnein3Q/4Q12,withfurtherupsidepotentialin2013asthemargincycleturnsandtheSouthwestChinamarketseesfurther
31、consolidation.Fig 3:Cement margins in Southwest are among the lowest in China.Grossmarginofcementproducers(%)30252015105Source:NBS,SWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage2Jan31,2013AnhuiConchH(914HK):2012earningsinline,2013recoveryscenariopricedinWeexpectAnhuiConchtodeliver201
32、2salesvolumeof188MTwithunitGPofRMB66/T.Assuch,weexpectthebottomlinetodecline46%YoYin2012.Fig 4: We expect Conch to deliver sales volume of 54M T with unit GP of RMB 82 in 4Q12.RMB,PertonneIndustryResearchBuildin1Q122Q123Q124Q12E2012EVolumeMASPACPGPOtherSg&AFinancecostsAssociates/EntitiesProfitbefore
33、taxationTaxrateTax/TMinoritiesNP/TNPMRMBEPS332691987110.524.76.30.150.023.3%11.70.437.91,2490.2448246181653.621.95.10.141.814.3%6.00.835.01,6680.3153219169492.920.85.00.326.024.8%6.50.519.01,0180.1954248166822.922.05.00.157.924.0%13.90.843.22,3440.44188243176664.423.05.30.143.420.0%8.71.033.46,2791.
34、18Source:Companydata,SWSResearchUsing13x13EP/E,weestimatethatthecurrentsharepricehasfactoredin2013GP/TofRMB90,whichisRMBc.25higherthanthefigureofRMB66seenin2012.WebelievearecoveryhasbeenpricedintoConchHshares.Fig 5: ConchHs current share price has factored in 2013 unit GP of RMB90.2013PEmultiple2013
35、GP,RMB/T2013volume,M17.11952002052102157020.0x19.5x19.1x18.6x18.2x7518.0x17.5x17.1x16.7x16.3x5037.6x36.6x35.7x34.9x34.1x8514.9x14.5x14.1x13.8x13.5x9013.7x13.3x13.0x12.7x12.4xSource:SWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage3Jan31,2013ShanshuiCement(691HK):2012earnings6%belowconse
36、nsus,margindilutionriskin2013WeexpectShanshuitodeliver2012salesvolumeof57MT,withGP/TofRMB67.Assuch,weexpectthebottomlinetodecline36%YoYin2012.Fig 6: We expect Shanshui to deliver sales volume of 32M T with unit GP of RMB 63 in 2H12.IndustryResearchBuildinRMB/T,MT1H092H091H102H101H112H111H20122H2012E
37、2012EVolumesASPACPGPOtherSg&AFinanceExpensesEarningbeforetax%taxesTaxesMinoritiesunitNPNP TOTAL, Rmb MEPS17234183503209292523%5.70.218.73100.1121229184454168242525%6.30.518.43920.1421225179463158232624%6.30.419.24040.1428253197560217282928%8.00.620.45750.2126302207951199286827%18.41.547.81,2370.4429
38、3112219063113455231%16.01.734.09880.35252932207341817364127%11.01.228.97280.26322732106332113343229%9.41.221.86970.25572822146732015353628%101.2251,4250.51Source:Companydata,SWSResearchFig 7: Benchmark prices dropped HoH in Shanshuis core markets in 2H12.PO42.5VATincl.RMB/T1Q122Q123Q124Q121H122H12Ho
39、HChgShandongLiaoning4004253894393574193564103944323614203312Source:DigitalCement,SWSResearchShanshuihas10productionlinesunderconstruction:1inShandong,2inInnerMongolia,2inNortheastChina,5inShanxi,with78linestobelaunchedin2013.Assuch,lowermarginsinShanxi/InnerMongoliaandhighercostsduringthetrialperiod
40、willlikelydilutethecompanysoverallGP/Tin2013.Fig 8: Shanshui has 10 production lines under construction.RegionShandong山东Shanxi山西InnierMongolia内蒙古Liaoning辽宁Jilin吉林Subsidiary临朐山水水泥有限公司临汾山水晋城山水合聚水泥有限公司山西离石山水（亿龙水泥）朔州山水武乡山水乌兰浩特市山水水泥有限公司阿旗山水二期朝阳喀左工源山水水泥白山山水水泥有限责任公司Productionline,mtpd5000450045004500450025
41、003000320050005000Expectedproductiondate1H20132013Feb13Jul201320132013/142013201320142013/14Source:Companydata,SWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage42222Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinWestChinaCement(2233HK):2012earnings9%belowconsensus,supplyrisksin2013WeexpectWCCtodelive
42、r2012salesvolumeof15MT,withGP/TofRMB49.Assuch,weexpectbottomlinetodecline37%YoYin2012.Fig 9: We expect WCC to deliver sales volume of 8.6M T with unit GP of RMB50 in 2H12RMB/T,MTVolume,000ASPACPGPOtherIncomeSg&AFinancecostExpensensEarningbeforetaxTax%Tax/TMinoritiesNP/T20095,07529917312614184865.873
43、.912%906520109,90029917912017211031.1106.812%13193201111,7002731977623181533.365.213%90571H2012A6,4002482014710181128.42920%60.3232H2012E8,600245195501619927.53918%70.3312012E15,0002522004914181027.934.518.6%60.328NPtoal,RMBMSource:Companydata,SWSResearch330925662148269417Lookingaheadto2013,weexpect
44、demandgrowthtoaccelerateto8%from5%in2012.Weseearapidincreaseininfrastructureprojectsbreakingground(e.g.rail,hydro,highways).Inparticular,weexpectrailwaysalonetodrive1.5MTofcementdemand(c.2.0%of2012totaloutput)in2013.Fig 10: We expect railways alone to drive 1.5M T of cement demand in Shaanxi in 2013
45、.Railway西成高铁西合铁路length,kg343253Cementintensity,t/kg13,0006,000Totaldemand,MT42Constructionperiod,yrs43.5Annauldemand,MT1.110.43Source:SWSResearchOnthesupplyside,weexpectnewcapacitytogrow9.3%in2013from5.6%in2012.Recentchannelchecksindicatethatnewsupplyislikelytoexceedexpectations.Weexpect8MTofnewcapa
46、citytocommenceproductionin2013inShaanxi,chieflyin1H13,higherthanourpreviousexpectationof56MT.Webelievehigherthanexpectednewcapacitywillbeachallengeforpricediscipline.Fig 11: We expect 8M T of new capacity to commence production in 2013 in Shaanxi.Newline海螺乾县声威富平生态水泥 I富平生态水泥 IITargetmarketWesternCent
47、ralShaanxiCentralShaanxiEasternCentralShaanxiEasternCentralShaanxiCapacitymtpd5000500050005000AnnualmtpaExpectedcommencementtime2013afterCNY1H201320132013Source:SWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage5Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinAsiaCementChina(743HK):2012earningsinline,2
48、013earningsleveragedtoCentral/EasternChinaWeexpectACCtodeliver2012salesvolumeof23MT,withGP/TofRMB47.Wethereforeexpectthebottomlinetodecline78%YoYin2012.Fig 12: We expect ACC to deliver sales volume of 13M T with unit GP of RMB47 in 2H12RMB/TVolume,000ASP1Q114,4553232Q115,7993263Q115,6453154Q116,7502
49、951Q123,8732842Q125,8252473Q12E4Q12E2H20126,2356,75012,9852232552402012E22,683249ACPGP225982221042278821184228562064119529191193644720247Source:Companydata,SWSResearchFig 13: Benchmark cement prices dropped HoH in ACCs core markets in 2H2012 PO42.5VATincl.RMB/T1Q122Q123Q124Q121H122H12HoHChgHubeiJian
50、gxiSichuan433390352360326317321298298394364327395357334356330312392722Source:Companydata,SWSResearch70%ofthecompanyssalesareinthemid/lowerregionsoftheYangtzeRiver(Central/EasternChina),whereweexpecttoseeincrementalimprovementsin2013.Weforecastnewsupplygrowthof3.4%(21MT)in2013,downfrom2011/12figureso
51、f6.3/10.2%(32/56MT).Weexpectdemandtopickup,withgrowthacceleratingtoatleast10%vs.6.5/9.0%in2011/12E.Thiscouldstrengthenpricedisciplinewhendemand/supplydynamicsimprovetoamorestablelevelin2013.PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage6Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinInformationDisclosure：The
52、viewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheanalyst.Theanalystdeclaresthatneitherhe/shenorhis/herassociateservesasanofficerofnorhasanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbytheanalyst.Noneofthelistedcorporationsreviewedoranythirdpartyhasprovidedoragreedtoprov
53、ideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnectionwiththisreporttoanyoftheanalyst,theCompanyorthegroupcompany(ies).Agroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanyconfirmthatthey,whetherindividuallyorasagroup(i)arenotinvolvedinanymarketmakingactivitiesforanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(ii)donothaveanyindividualemploy
54、edbyorassociatedwithanygroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanyservingasanofficerofanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(iii)donothaveanyfinancialinterestinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedor(iv)donot,presentlyorwithinthelast12months,haveanyinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththelistedcorporationreviewed.Unde
55、rtakingsoftheAnalystRongYe:EquityAnalystIamconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalyst.Iherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligence,professionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlyleg
56、itimateinformationisusedinthisreport.Iamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreport.Ihaveneverbeen,amnot,andwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionsherein.DisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofkn
57、owledge.Tfortheanalystsqualifications，thearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdings.IntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRating：Whenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreport,wedefinetheterms
58、asfollows:Buy：withamarkupmorethan20%betterthanthatofthemarket；Outperform：Withamarkup5%to20%betterthanthatofthemarket；Neutral：withamarkuplessthan5%betterorworsethanthatofthemarket； Underperform：withamarkupmorethan5%worsethanthatofthemarket.IndustryInvestmentRating:Whenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthe
59、markupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereport,wedefinethetermsasfollows:Overweight：Industryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarket；Neutral：Industryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarket；Underweight：Industryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarket.Wewou
60、ldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandards.Weadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestment.Theclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituation,suchastheirportfoliostructuresandotherne
61、cessaryfactors.Theclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusion.TheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystem.Theindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterested.HSCEIisthebe
62、nchmarkemployedinthisreport.Disclaimer：ThisreportistobeusedsolelybytheclientsofSWSResearchCo.,Ltd.(hereinafterreferredtoasthe“Company”).TheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreport.Thisreportisbasedonpublicinformation,however,theauthenticity,accuracyorcompleten
63、essofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompany.Thematerials,tools,opinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonly,andarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstruments.Theclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerec
64、ommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinions,whicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsite(http:/).Theclientsmayaskforfollowupexplanationsiftheysowish.Thematerials,opinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleased.T
65、heprices,valuesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuate.Atdifferentperiods,theCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerials,opinionsandestimatescontainedherein.Saveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreport,thecontactoruponthefirstpageofth
66、ereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservices.TheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport,andshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreport.Theclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownris
67、k.Pleaseberemindedthatinanyevent,thecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclients.Whetherwrittenororal,anycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalid.Theinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladvi
68、ceforindividualclients.TheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationsorneedsofindividualclients.TheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsitu
69、ations;andtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessary.Undernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyone.UndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyone.Pleasebepa
70、rticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestment.IndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompany.TheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisre
71、portwhichshallbetreatedasnonpublicinformation.TheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreport.Unlessotherwiseindicatedinwriting,allthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompany.IntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwriting,nopartofthisreportshallbecopied,photocopied,replicatedorre
72、distributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeans,orbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompany.Allthetrademarks,servicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarks,servicemarksormarksoftheCompany,andnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompany.This
73、reportmaybetranslatedintodifferentlanguages.TheCompanydoesnotwarrantthatthetranslationsarefreefromerrorsordiscrepancies.PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage7Jan31,2013IndustryResearchBuildinThisreportisfordistributioninHongKongonlytopersonswhofallwithinthedefinitionofprofessionalinves
74、torswhetherundertheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Chapter571ofthelawsofHongKong)(the“SFO”)ortheSecuritiesandFutures(ProfessionalInvestor)Rules(Chapter571DofthelawsoftheHongKongundertheSFO).ThisreportisfordistributionintheUnitedKingdomonlytopersonswho(i)haveprofessionalexperienceinmattersrelatingtoinv
75、estmentsfallingwithinArticle19(5)oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000(FinancialPromotion)order2001(asamended)(the“Order”)or(ii)arepersonsfallingwithinArticle49(2)(a)to(d)(“HighNetWorthCompanies,UnincorporatedAssociations,etc”)oftheOrder(Allsuchpersonstogetherbeingreferredtoas“RelevantPersons”).ThisdocumentisdirectedonlyatRelevantPersons.OtherPersonswhoarenotRelevantPersonsmustnotactorrelyuponthisdocumentoranyofitscontents.PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage8
