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1、Top picksBuyBuyBuyDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchNorth AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPeriodicalRailcar &PetroChemicalDate19 November 2012UpdateDavid Begleiter, CFAUS chemical shipments down 1.2%.Ethane prices fall 1c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg. down 1.2%, weekly loadings
2、 up 2.5%The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings declined 1.2% inWeek #45 (ended November 10) vs. a 1.6% decrease the prior week. LoadingYTD are down 1.1%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 23% of total USchemical shipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering
3、a measurement of broader chemical industry activity and demand trends. Themore volatile measure of weekly loadings increased 2.5% YoY (versus a 1.2%decline in the prior week) and increased 3.4% sequentially (vs. a 0.8% decreasein the prior week).Ethane prices fell 1c/gal last week to 29.5c/gal (down
4、 63% YTD)Ethane prices fell 1c/gal last week to 29.5c/gal while spot ethylene prices fell2c/lb to 53c/lb. With naphtha feedstock costs also rising 20%, the combinedeffect was to reduce spot ethylene margins by 2c/lb to 33c/lb. Polymer grade(PG) propylene spot prices for November fell to 53c-55c/gal.
5、 The PG contractprice for November rose 4c/lb to 57c/lb (vs a forecasted 5c/lb increase) owingto near-term supply shock. PG prices are expected to fall in December onResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst( ) 212 250-Jermaine BrownResearch Associate(+1) 212 250-3624jermaine-
6、Ashland (ASH.N),USD68.27LyondellBasell (LYB.N),USD46.87Eastman Chemical (EMN.N),USD55.69improved supply and lower seasonal demand.ExxonMobils Baytown BOP-X facility (3.1% of NA capacity) remains down foran unplanned maintenance outage that is expected to last through the third(GDP, Real YoY)USEurola
7、nd20080.4%0.6%2009-2.6%-4.1%20103.0%1.9%2011 2012E 2013E1.8% 2.2% 2.0%1.4% -0.5% 0.0%week of November. The Flint Hills Port Arthur, TX ethylene facility (1.9% of NAcapacity) remains down for a maintenance outage that is expected to last untillate this month. We expect ethylene capacity outages to de
8、crease sequentiallyin November (4.7% of NA ethylene capacity offline), vs 6.9% offline inOctober, and decrease in December (1.0% of NA capacity offline).JapanG7Asia ex-JapanChinaGlobal-0.7%0.3%6.8%9.0%2.7%-5.3%-3.5%5.7%9.1%-0.9%4.1%2.9%9.4%10.3%5.1%-0.7% 1.9% 0.6%1.4% 1.3% 1.3%7.3% 6.1% 6.7%9.2% 7.7
9、% 8.2%3.6% 2.9% 3.2%We expect ethane prices to move modestly higher to 40c/gal in DecemberSource: DB Global Economics Teamand 43-45c/gal in January on higher propane prices, which we expect to riseon seasonal demand and Enterprise starting up its expanded export terminal.Weakened potash demand spill
10、ing over to phosphate.Unsettled potash contracts in China and India, coupled with above averageNorth American potash inventories (39% above the 5-year avg) are leadingbuyers to delay purchases to avoid price risk. This cautious sentiment is spillingover to phosphate as buyers are being thriftier wit
11、h their purchases in spite oflow inventory levels. Given this weakened demand, Mosaic (MOS; Hold)lowered their 13 Q2 potash volumes to 1.3MM-1.4MM m.t (prior guidance:1.6MM-1.9MM m.t.) and phosphate volumes to 2.9MM-3.1MM m.t. (Priorguidance: 3.0MM-3.4MM m.t.).We maintain our equal-weight stance on
12、the sectorWithin in the chemicals sector, our top specialty chemical idea is Ashland(ASH, Buy, TP $85), our top differentiated chemical idea is Eastman Chemical(EMN, Buy, TP $70) and our top commodity chemical idea is LyondellBasell(LYB, Buy, TP $60)._All prices are those current at the end of the p
13、revious trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors sho
14、uld be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.Apr-11Ap
15、r-12Aug-11May-11May-12Aug-12Feb-12Feb-11Mar-11Mar-12Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Nov-11Dec-11Nov-10Dec-10Sep-11Sep-11Aug-11Aug-12Sep-12Nov-10Dec-10Nov-11Dec-11May-11May-12Nov-12Oct-11Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-11Sep-11Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Sep-11Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-11Apr-12May-12Aug-12 Sep-12Jan-12Jun-12Feb-12 Mar-12Oct-12Ju
16、l-12May-12Aug-12Jun-12Feb-12 Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Sep-12Jun-11Jan-11Jan-12Jun-12Oct-10Oct-11Apr-11Apr-12Jan-11Jun-11Jan-12Jun-12Feb-11Feb-12Mar-11Mar-12Oct-12Jul-11Jul-12Jul-11Jul-1219 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateFigure 1: Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended Nove
17、mber 10, 2012 (Week# 45)% YoY% Sequential4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012(1.2%)(1.6%)2.5%(1.2%)(1.05%)0.4%(1.0%)3.4%(0.8%)Source: Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 2: U.S. Ethylene Production Cash Costs - Spot Co-Production CreditsWeekly Avg. Cents/
18、 PoundChange from Last WeekPurity EthanePropaneCo-Prod. Int. Lt. NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source: IHS Chemical12.918.450.342.158.267.120.2(0.2)(1.5)8.62.16.90.60.4Figure 3: Mt. Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices (North America)c/ gallon1009080706050403020Source: IHS ChemicalFigure 5:
19、US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb)7570Figure 4: Mt. Belvieu Propane Non-TET (North America)c/ gallon170160150140130120110100908070Source: IHS ChemicalFigure 6: US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOBSpot Prices (c/lb)908065706055504560504040303530Source: Bloomberg Finance LP20S
20、ource: Bloomberg Finance LPOct-11Oct-11Nov-11 Dec-11Sep-11Apr-12Aug-12May-12Sep-12Jun-1997Jun-1998Jan-12Jun-12Feb-12Mar-12Jun-1995Jun-1996Jun-1999Jun-2000Jun-2001Jun-2002Jun-2003Jun-2004Jun-2005Jun-2006Jun-2007Jun-2008Jun-2009Jun-2010Jun-2011Jun-2012Oct-12Jul-12Figure 7: China Acetic Acid Spot Price
21、s (CNY/ton)450040003500300025002000Source: Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 8: US ethane-based ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions (c/lb)65605550454035302520151050Figure 9: US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005 (000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400Western US EthaneU
22、SUSUS Light NortheastWest SoutheastCanadaWeighted Coprod NaphthaAsiaEuropeAsiaAverageLightNaphthaNaphtha Naphtha Naphtha19 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateTable Of ContentsUS Chemicals Railcar Data . 6Key end market data. 8End Market: Agriculture . 9End Market: US Const
23、ruction . 11End Market: US Automotive & Electronics . 13US macro indicators . 14US output indicators . 14US financial market indicators. 16Overseas macro indicators. 17Sector Valuation & Risks . 18Table of ExhibitsFigure 1: Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended October 13, 2012 (Week# 41) . 2Fig
24、ure 2: U.S. Ethylene Production Cash Costs - Spot Co-Production Credits. 2Figure 3: Mt. Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices (North America). 2Figure 4: Mt. Belvieu Propane Non-TET (North America). 2Figure 5: US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices (c/lb) . 2Figure 6: US Chemical Grade Propylene Gul
25、f Coast FOB Spot Prices (c/lb) . 2Figure 7: China Acetic Acid Spot Prices (CNY/ton). 3Figure 8: US ethane-based ethylene production costs are advantaged vs other regions (c/lb). 3Figure 9: US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since 2005 (000 of bpd) . 3Figure 11: Chemical distribution chann
26、els, by volume and cost . 6Figure 12: Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings (4-wk m.a., % YoY) . 6Figure 13: Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings (2009-Present) . 6Figure 14: Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings (2009-Present). 7Figure 15: Weekly railcar loadings (0
27、00s, 2009-Present) . 7Figure 16: Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings, %YoY (2000-Present). 7Figure 17: Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings (000s, 2000-Present). 7Figure 18: US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets. 8Figure 19: Corn stocks-to-use rati
28、os are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970s . 9Figure 20: US Corn and Soy Acreage (1970-2013E; millions of acres). 9Figure 21: US Corn Yields (1970-2013E; bushels per acre). 10Figure 22: US Soybean Yields (1970-2013E; bushels per acre). 10Figure 23: Global Corn Consumption (MM tons) . 10Figure 2
29、4: Arable Land Per Capita . 10Figure 25: Global Corn Yields by Country / Region (bu/acre; 2011). 10Figure 26: Global Corn Acreage by Region (millions of acres; 2011) . 10Figure 27: US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement. 11Figure
30、28: Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residentialconstruction. 11Figure 29: Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels. 12Figure 30: Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels . 12Figure 31: Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuil
31、der sentiment . 12Figure 32: Housing starts appear to have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012. 12Figure 33: North American auto builds . 13Figure 34: North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio . 13Figure 35: US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways. 14Figure 36: Chemicals Railcar L
32、oadings, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production. 14Figure 37: Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production. 15Figure 38: ECRI Leading Index vs. Industrial Production . 15Figure 39: Industrial Production vs. ISM PMI Index. 15Figure 40: Industrial Production vs. ISM Mfg. New O
33、rders . 15Figure 41: Industrial Production vs. Conference Board Leading Indicators. 15Figure 42: Conference Board Leading Indicators vs. Real GDP . 15Figure 43: Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curve . 16Figure 44: A steeper yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP . 16Figure 45: Eu
34、rozone confidence indicators. 17Figure 46: ZEW German economic sentiment indicator (12mo m.avg.) . 17Figure 47: OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production. 17246810 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52246810 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 5
35、0 5219 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateUS Chemicals Railcar DataFigure 10: Chemical distribution channels, by volume and costBy tonnage (882MM tons)By cost* ($40.0 billion)RailTruckWaterbornePipeline, Air & Other30%48%18%4%20%67%10%3%Source: American Chemistry Council.
36、*Cost is cost of transportation, not value of product, 2010 dataYear to date, chemical railcar loadings are down 1.1%Year to date, chemical railcar loadings are down approximately 1.1%. With ethanolcomprising approximately 21% of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10% (est.) in11, we estimate th
37、at ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 11: Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings (4-wk m.a., % YoY)60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)Week# 45JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecChemicals railcar loadings (4-wk m.a. % YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings (estimated fr
38、om blending, 4-wk m.a. %YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings (4-wk m.a.% YoY)Source: Association of American RailroadsFigure 12: Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings (2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,00023,000Week# 45JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep OctNovDecSource: Association o
39、f American Railroads201020112012SequentialChange-Jan-00 Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03 Jan-04Jan-05 Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08 Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11 Jan-12Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Figure 13: Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings (2009-Present)
40、35%25%15%5%(5%)Figure 14: Weekly railcar loadings (000s, 2009-Present)3432302826(15%)(25%)JanFebMarAprMayWeek# 45Jun JulAugSepOctNov Dec2422Week# 45201020112012Jan Feb Mar2010Apr May Jun Jul2011Aug Sep OctNovDec2012Source: Association of American RailroadsFigure 15: Four-week moving average of weekl
41、y railcarloadings, %YoY (2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Source: Association of American RailroadsSource: Association of American RailroadsFigure 16: Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings (000s, 2000-Present)32302826242220Source: Association of American Railroads-19 November
42、 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateKey end market dataFigure 17: US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end marketsCompany3MAuto & Transport11%Construction4%Electronics10%CommentsIndustrial 25%; Healthcare 18%; Consumer 15%; Energy 3%,Safety & Security 14%Air Products15%En
43、ergy 24%, Genl Mfg 15%, Chemicals 17%, Metals 10%,Medical 7%, Food 3%, Others 10%Airgas2%13%Industrial & Mfg: 25% ; Repair & Maintenance: 27% Retail &Wholesale: 4% Other 3% Medical: 9% ; Food; 6%; Analytical:2% Utilities: 2%, Petrochemical: 7% “Auto & Transport” is onlyTransport and no AutoAlbemarle
44、6%9%15%Refining 32%, Pharma/ Ag 12%, Industrial 10%, Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%, Other 3%Ashland8%17%Coatings 6%, Lubricants 15%, Chemicals 5%, Pulp/ paper 12%,Energy 3%, Regulated Ind 3%, Marine 4%, Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/ converting 3%, Retail consumer 3%, Personal Care3%, Medical 2%, Others 14
45、%CabotCelanese15%11%10%3%10%Tire 45% ; Others 20%Filter Media 22%; Paints & Coatings 13%; Consumer & MedicalApps 12%; Consumer & Industrial Adhesives; IndustrialPerformance Apps 7%; Textiles 5% ; Food & Beverage 4%;Paper & Packaging 3%Cytec17%47%Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%; Plastic
46、 : 4%;Adhesives: 3% ; Other: 9% “Auto & Transport” consists ofAutomotive onlyDuPont20%10%9%Agriculture/ food 21%; Food Ingred, Ref & packaging 8%; Otherpackaging 3%; Chemicals/ petchem 5%; Textile/ apparel 5%;Plastics 3%; Other industrial 7%; Aerospace 4%; Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%; Personal care 3%.“C
47、onstruction” includesresidential, commercial construction”Ferro10%34%21%Appliances 8%; Containers 8%; Household furnishings 7%;Industrial 6%; Others 6%HB Fuller10%Adhesives: 72%; Paints: 8%; Packaging: 4%; Insulating glass:4%; Consumer: 2%LyondellBasell7%10%Refining/Fuels: 35%; Packaging: 18%; Consu
48、mer: 12%; Coatings:4%; Textiles/Furnishings:4%; Other:10%. “Auto & Transport”consists of Transportation only. “Construction” consists of“Building & Construction”.PPG30%27%Consumer goods 21%; Industrial goods 10%; Chemical products:5%; Aerospace 4%; Marine 3% (Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarke
49、t 11%)Praxair7%Manufacturing 24%; Chemicals 10%; Energy 13%; Food andBeverage 7%; Aerospace 2%; Healthcare 10%; Metals 16%;Other 11%Rockwood Holdings11%13%8.00%Metal Treatment 17%; Chemicals/Plastics 14%; Life Sciences12%; Consumer Products 2%; Paper 2%; Environmental 2%;Other 8%Valspar3%30%Industri
50、al 36%, Packaging 21%, Other 10% “Auto & Transport” isautomotive refinish and “Construction” is architectural paintsSource: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates12/13E70/7172/7374/7576/7778/7980/8182/8384/8586/8788/8990/9192/9394/9596/9798/9900/0102/0304/0506/0708/0910/11End Market: AgricultureFigur
51、e 18: Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource: Deutsche BankFigure 19: US Corn and Soy Acreage (1970-2013E; millions of acres)10595857565554535Source: Deutsche Bank, USDAUS Corn AcreageUS Soy Acreage70/7172/7374/7576/7778/7980/8182/8384/8586/8788/8990/9192/9394/9
52、596/9798/9900/0102/0304/0506/0708/0910/1112/13E12/13E70/7172/7374/7576/7778/7980/8182/8384/8586/8788/8990/9192/9394/9596/9798/9900/0102/0304/0506/0708/0910/1119 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateFigure 20: US Corn Yields (1970-2013E; bushels per acre)1801601401201008060So
53、urce: Deutsche Bank, USDAFigure 22: Global Corn Consumption (MM tons)MM TonsFigure 21: US Soybean Yields (1970-2013E; bushels peracre)50454035302520Source: Deutsche Bank, USDAFigure 23: Arable Land Per CapitaAcres/Capita120010901.2100080097010.81.020.756006000.60.554004100.40.440.412202000.201965198
54、020002020E2030E01961198020002020E2030ESource: Global InsightsFigure 24: Global Corn Yields by Country / Region(bu/acre; 2011)Source: Global InsightsFigure 25: Global Corn Acreage by Region (millions ofacres; 2011)16014714510092140120100801291261199884786890807060507060403740303227252002010109.56.54.
55、530Source: Global Insights, USDASource: Global Insights, USDA030405060708091011YoYchange020304050607080910111212End Market: US ConstructionFigure 26: US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and isbeginning to show signs of improvement$1,000$900$800$700$600$500$400$300$200$100
56、$0Total non-res constr. Sep-12 = $559Total res-constr. %YOY; Sep-12 = 19.2%Total res-constr. Sep-12 = $292Total non-res constr. %YOY; Sep-12 = 2.6%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)Source: Haver AnalyticsFigure 27: Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residentialconstructi
57、on40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Jul-12 = 0.4%Sep-12 = 9.7%-40%Private non-residential construction SAAR $ millions (% YoY, 3mo m.a.)Public non-residential construction SAAR $ millions (% YoY, 3mo m.a.)Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau888990919293949596979899000102030405060708091
58、0111288 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1219 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateFigure 28: Household debt to asset ratio returning totrend levelsSource: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, DB Global Market researchFigure 30: Housing
59、-related consumption remains wellabove homebuilder sentimentFigure 29: Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning totrend levelsSource: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, DB Global Market researchFigure 31: Housing starts appear to have bottomed andhave ticked up in 2012807060504030201006%5%4%3%2%
60、1%0%-1%-2%-3%2,3001,9001,5001,100700300100806040200Housing Starts, 3mo m.a. (000s, LHS): Sep-12 = 786Homebuilders sentiment (SA, All Good = 100, 1 qtr. lead (LHS)Total housing-related consumption* % YOY (RHS)Source: NAHB, BEA*Furniture & household equipment, housing shelter and household operationHo
61、mebuilders Sentiment (SA, All Good = 100): 15Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics0405060708091011121Q052Q053Q054Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12E4Q12EEnd Market: US Automotive & ElectronicsFigure 32: North Ameri
62、can auto builds80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%Quarterly NA Light Vehicles Production (%YoY)Previous quarter forecastQuarterly ForecastAnnual NA Light Vehicles Production (%YoY)80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%Previous Quarter Annual NA Light Vehicles Production (%YoY)Source: Deutsche Bank, Wards, Deutsche Bank
63、Autos TeamFigure 33: North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio2.01.81.61.41.21.00.8Rigid PCBs book to bill ratio; Sep-12 = 1.00Flexible Circuits book to bill ratio; Sep-12 = 0.71Combined (Rigid & Flexible) book to bill ratio; Sep-12 = 0.97Source: IPC (Association Connecting Electronics
64、 Industries)Front-end semiconductor bookings, which represent more chemicals-intensiveupstream processes (e.g. wafer fab, foundry) are typically led by back-end bookingswhich represent downstream test and packaging activitiesNA PCB book-bill ratios give a view into consumer electronics demand, and p
65、articularlydemand for flame retardant plastic additives (e.g. ALB, CEM)Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-119697989900010203040506070809101112Jan-1219 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateUS macro indicatorsUS output indicatorsFigure 34: US Chemicals S
66、hipments on Internal Waterways25%20%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%Sep-12 (RHS) = 1.3%Oct-12 (LHS) = 0.9%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%Petroleum and Chemicals Monthly Tonnage on US Internal Waterways (LHS, %YoY 6mo m.a.)Petroleum and Chemicals Railcar Loadings (RHS, %YoY of 4-wk m.a.)Source: Waterbo
67、rne Commerce Statistics Center, New Orleans, LAFigure 35: Chemicals Railcar Loadings, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production800600400200-(200)(400)(600)(800)(1,000)(1,200)Chemicals % Capacity Utilization (bps YoY, 6mo m.a., LHS); Sep-12 = (48)Chem Railcar Loadings (%YoY, 6mo m.a., RHS); Oct
68、-12 = (0.9%)Chemicals Ind. Production (%YoY, 6mo m.a., RHS); Sep-12 = (0.1%)Source: Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center, New Orleans, LA20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%)90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12909192939495 96979899000102 03040506070809 10111290919293
69、9495969798990001020304050607080910111290 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1380859095000580 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 05 07 09 1110Figure 36: Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrialproductionFigure 37: ECRI Leading Index vs. Industrial Production20%10
70、%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Sep-12(LHS) =2.8%Aug-12 (LHS) = 3.0%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Sep-12(RHS) =2.8%Oct-12 (LHS) = 3.9%15%10%5%(0%)(5%)(10%)(15%)ECRI Leading Index (% YoY, adv. 5 months, LHS)Railcar loadings, ex-grain & coal (4-wk ma %YoY, shift fwd 1mo, LHS)Industr
71、ial production (% YoY, RHS)Source: Association of American Railroads, Federal ReserveFigure 38: Industrial Production vs. ISM PMI IndexIndustrial production (% YoY, RHS)Source: Federal Reserve, ECRI, ReutersFigure 39: Industrial Production vs. ISM Mfg. New Orders6560555045403530Sep-12 (RHS) = 2.8%Oc
72、t-12 (LHS)= 51.710%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)80706050403020Oct-12(RHS) = 54.2Sep-12 (RHS) = 2.8%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)ISM (Mfg.), shifted fwd 3 months (left axis)Industrial production (% YoY, right axis)10ISM New Orders (Mfg.) shifted fwd 3 mos (LHS)Industrial production (% YoY, RHS)(15%)Source: Federal Reserv
73、e, ISMFigure 40: Industrial Production vs. Conference BoardLeading IndicatorsSource: Federal Reserve, ISMFigure 41: Conference Board Leading Indicators vs. RealGDP5%Jul-12 =1.4%15%10%Sep-12 (RHS)= 2.3%10%8%6%0%5%0%4%2%0%(5%)(5%)Jun-12 (LHS) = 1.5%(2%)(4%)(10%)Sep-12 = 0.2%(10%)(6%)Conf. Board leadin
74、g indicators, (6-m % chg) shifted forward 3mosHeadline IP ex-mining, ex-utilities (6-m % chg)Source: Federal Reserve, BloombergConf. Board Leading Indicator, % YoY (LHS, shifted forward 2 qtrs)Real GDP % YoY (RHS)Source: Deutsche Bank, Reuters9192939495969798990001020304050607080910111298 99 00 01 0
75、2 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-19 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateUS financial market indicatorsFigure 42: Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curveFigure 43: A steeper yield curve has previously led risingchemicals IP37525.0300225150Nov -12(RHS) = 12.120.015.05003
76、00Sep-12 (RHS) = (0.1%)12%6%751000%0-75-150Oct-12 (LHS) = 159.410.05.0(100)(300)Oct-12 (LHS)= 130.2-6%-12%-225Source: Factset10y-3m Yield Curve (bps, LHS)DB Chems Universe NT M P/E (RHS)(500)Source: Federal Reserve, ISMUS 10yr - 3m eurodollar (6mo ma. shifted fwd 6mos, bps, LHS)Industrial Production
77、: Chemicals (% YoY, 6mo m.a., RHS)-18%88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1291 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1290919293949596979899000102030405060708091011Overseas macro indicatorsFigure 44: Eurozone confidence indicatorsFigure 45: ZE
78、W German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.)115110105100959085Recession periodsin GermanyEuropean Commission Economic sentiment(36mo mv.avg.)24 Month Moving Average B.SectorEuro Zone PMI manufacturing (24mo mv.avg.)605652484440120100806040200-20-40-60Recession periods in GermanyZEW Economic Se
79、ntiment (12mo mv. avg.)Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, European Commission, IfoSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, ZEW center for European Econ. ResearchFigure 46: OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production15.0%10.0%5.0%Aug-12 (LHS) =(0.4%)10%5%0%-5%0.0%-10%-5.0%-15%-10.0%-15.0%Oct-12 (RHS) = (1.7%)
80、-20%-25%OECD Europe Composite Leading Indicators % chg. YoY, shifted fwd 4 mos (LHS)Eurozone IP ex Construction (RHS 3mo avg YoY chg)Source: Haver Analytics, OECD, Factset, Eurostat19 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar & PetroChemical UpdateSector Valuation & RisksValuation:We value companies w
81、ithin the chemicals sector based on: 1) forward P/E multiples (vs.historical ranges, and the overall market); 2) forward EV/EBITDA multiples (whereleverage diverges greatly from that of peers, also vs. historical averages); 3) ouradjusted calculation of cash return on cash invested (“ROIC”) and the
82、strong correlation(R270%) we have found between chemical sector valuations and returns on capital.Risks:Chemicals volumes are tightly linked with industrial production, while input costs areclosely tied to energy prices (e.g., oil, natural gas). Accordingly, key risks to ourforecasts include a reces
83、sion in overall GDP (domestic or international, depending oncompany-specific overseas exposure), a surge in energy prices, and sharp deterioration(or improvement, in select cases) in chemicals-intensive housing or automotiveproduction.The author of this report wishes to acknowledge the contribution
84、made by Anuj Bhatiaand Abhishek Chawla, employees of Evalueserve, a third-party provider to Deutsche Bankof offshore research support services.1.2.6.7.1.2.6.7.Appendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestDisclosure checklistCompanyAshlandCelanese CorpLyondellBasellTick
85、erASH.NCE.NLYB.NRecent price*68.27 (USD) 16 Nov 1238.57 (USD) 16 Nov 1246.87 (USD) 16 Nov 12Disclosure1,7,14,15,171,7,141,2,6,7,14*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required
86、by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed
87、 a public or private offeringfor this company, for which it received fees.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in securities issued by this company.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under
88、computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related
89、compensation from this companywithin the past year.15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it receivednon-investment banking securities-related services.Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsPlease also refer to discl
90、osures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offeringfor this company, for which it received fees.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market
91、in securities issued by this company.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for
92、the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.17. Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds,Convertible Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the fol
93、lowingissuer(s), or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m Euros.For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at
94、 http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensation for providing a specific
95、recommendation or view in this report. David BegleiterHistorical recommendations and target price: Ashland (ASH.N)(as of 11/16/2012)90.00Previous Recommendations80.0070.0060.0023456789101112Strong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended Rating50.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.001Current Recommen
96、dationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 1201/27/2010:04/30/2010:06/04/2010:11/03/2010:04/27/2011:06/01/2011:Hold, Target Price Change USD45.00Hold, Target Price Change
97、USD65.00Hold, Target Price Change USD58.00Hold, Target Price Change USD55.00Hold, Target Price Change USD68.00Hold, Target Price Change USD75.0006/20/2011:09/16/2011:11/16/2011:10. 01/26/2012:11. 02/17/2012:12. 10/31/2012:Upgrade to Buy, USD75.00Buy, Target Price Change USD62.00Buy, Target Price Cha
98、nge USD65.00Buy, Target Price Change USD75.00Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00Buy, Target Price Change USD85.00SecurityPriceSecurityPriceDate1.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.31Date1.3.2.4.Historical recommendations and target price: Celanese Corp (CE.N)(as of 11/16/2012)70.00Previous Recommendations60.005Strong Bu
99、yBuy50.0040.0012346789Market PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent Recommendations30.0020.0010.000.00BuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 1201/13/2010:04/28/2
100、010:02/02/2011:04/27/2011:07/22/2011:Buy, Target Price Change USD40.00Buy, Target Price Change USD42.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.0009/16/2011:06/20/2012:07/25/2012:10/24/2012:Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Cha
101、nge USD55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD45.00Historical recommendations and target price: LyondellBasell (LYB.N)(as of 11/16/2012)60.0050.0040.0024Previous RecommendationsStrong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent Recommendations30.00BuyH
102、old20.0010.00SellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12Jul 12Oct 1210/17/2011:02/13/2012:Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD40.00Buy, Target Price Change USD52.0007/29/2012:10/28/2012:Buy, Target Price Change USD
103、55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Equity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price45040049 %49 %from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yiel
104、d ) , we recommend that investorsbuy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months35030025020015010050045 %Buy37 %Hold2 %3 5 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notr
105、ecommend either a Buy or Sell.Companies CoveredCos. w / Banking RelationshipNotes:1. Newly issued research recommendations and targetprices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or mo
106、re over a 12-month periodHold: Expected total return (includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodNorth American UniverseRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside
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