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1、: : URBAN I N S T I T U T I2021 Poverty ProjectionsOne in Seven Americans Are Projected to Have Resources below thePoverty Level in 2021Linda Giannarelli, Laura Wheaton, and Katie ShantzFebruary 2021As Congress considers President Bidens proposal to provide additional support to families andstimulat
2、e the economy, it is important to understand the extent of need American families may befacing in the coming year. At the end of 2020, the number of jobs in the US economy was still 9 millionlower than at the end of 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic began), and that number had declinedrather than i
3、ncreased between November and December 2020.1 Twelve percent of the peopleresponding to the December 2020 Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey reported either sometimesor often not having enough to eat in the past seven days (compared with 9 percent before thepandemic), and about one-fifth of renter
4、s reported being behind on their rent.2 Against that backdrop,Congress and the Trump administration enacted a major package of legislation in December 2020 thatincluded three significant elements of direct aid for US familiesextended unemployment benefits,enhanced SNAP benefits, and another round of
5、 stimulus checksas well as many other provisions.3We project an overall 2021 poverty rate of 13.7 percent, meaning that about one in sevenAmericans may have annual family resources below the poverty threshold. Our projections, developedusing the Urban Institutes Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Inc
6、ome Security (ATTIS) model, take intoaccount expected levels of employment and income in 2021 and consider 2021 benefits and taxes,including the policies enacted in December 2020.2021 Poverty ProjectionsOur poverty projections use an expanded poverty measure that considers not only a familys cashinc
7、ome but also their tax payments, tax credits, in-kind benefits such as nutrition help； and thestimulus checks authorized in December that people began to receive in early 2021 (Foxz Glassman,and Pacas 2020). This metric is the Supplemental Poverty Measure, or SPM.Overall, we project that 13.7 percen
8、t of people will have family income below the SPM threshold(table I).4 The projected percentages of Black people in poverty (18.1 percent) and Hispanic people inpoverty (21.9 percent) are about twice as high as for white people (9.6 percent). Black and Hispanicpeople were more likely than white peop
9、le to lose their jobs during the pandemic and have been lesslikely to regain their jobs if lost.5We also project the numbers of people at different points in the poverty distribution. About a thirdof the people with below-poverty resources (4.4 percent of all people) are in deep poverty/ meaningthat
10、 their family resources are less than half of the SPM poverty threshold. Forty-five percent ofpeople are in families with resources less than twice the poverty threshold.TABLE 1Projected 2021 Annual Poverty Rates by Race and EthnicityPercent with familyresources below100% of SPM povertylevelPercent
11、with family resourcesbelow 50% of SPM povertylevel (deep poverty)Percent with familyresources below200% of SPMpoverty levelAll people13.74.445.0White, non-Hispanic people9.63.634.9Black, non-Hispanic people18.15.161.1Hispanic people21.95.665.5Source: Urban Institute projections as of February 2021,
12、created by the ATTIS model applied to a version of the 2018 AmericanCommunity Survey data with employment, population, and incomes projected to 2021, and with taxes and benefits simulatedwith 2021 policies.Note: ATTIS = Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security Model; SPM = Supplemental Pove
13、rty Measure. Non-Hispanicpeople who do not identify as either white or Black or who identify with multiple races are included in the total but not shownseparately in this table. Poverty is measured with the SPM; we generally follow US Census Bureau methods for applying theSPM to American Community S
14、urvey data but use benefits and taxes simulated by ATTIS.Considering the results by age group (table 2), the projected poverty rates are the same forchildren, adults ages 18 to 64, and adults age 65 and over. Working-age adults often have slightlylower SPM poverty rates than children or adults age 6
15、5 and over, but the combination of changesbecause of job loss and the impact of the relief policies creates almost-identical poverty rates for allthree age groups in this analysis. Despite the similar poverty rates for children and adults, we projectthat a larger share of children (53 percent) will
16、have family resources below twice the povertythreshold than will working-age adults (43 percent) or adults age 65 or over (42 percent).The projected SPM poverty rate in 2021 (13.7 percent) is about the same as the SPM poverty ratewe estimated for 2018z although the 2021 rate will likely be somewhat
17、higher than the rate was in2019.6 But the similarity of the overall poverty rates between 2018 and 2021 does not mean families7circumstances have not changed. Many families may have had their resources fall from above to belowthe poverty threshold because of job loss; conversely, other families may
18、have had their resourcesincrease from below to above the poverty threshold if they were not affected by job loss and insteadbenefited from SNAP increases and stimulus checks. (The poverty rates in this brief cannot be directlycompared to our 2020 poverty projections Giannarelli, Wheaton, and Acs 202
19、0 because the povertydefinition differs.)7TABLE 2Projected 2021 Annual Poverty Rates by AgePercent with familyresources below 100%of SPM poverty levelPercent with familyresources below 50%of SPM poverty level(deep poverty)Percent with familyresources below 200%of SPM poverty levelAll people13.74.445
20、.0Less than 18 years old13.73.353.018 to 64 years old13.74.842.965 years or older13.74.342.2Source: Urban Institute projections as of February 2021, created by the ATTIS model applied to a version of the 2018 AmericanCommunity Survey data with employment, population, and incomes projected to 2021.No
21、te: ATTIS = Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security Model; SPM = Supplemental Poverty Measure. Poverty ismeasured with the SPM; we generally follow US Census Bureau methods for applying the SPM to American Community Surveydata but use benefits and taxes simulated by ATTIS.CO VID Relief Pol
22、icies Included in the EstimatesOur estimates incorporate three key aspects of the pandemic-relief legislation enacted in Decemberthat directly impact families economic resources during 2021:8, Unemployment insurance (UI) benefits: Many unemployed people exhausted their weeks ofregular UI eligibility
23、 by the end of December, and the additional weeks provided by earlierpandemic relief legislation expired at the end of 2020. The December 2020 legislationprovides another 11 weeks of benefits, with $300 a week added onto regular state benefitamounts until mid-March. The relief package also extends i
24、nto March the ability for peoplewho dont usually qualify for UI (in particular, self-employed or gig workers) to receivebenefits, although we assume that the portion of this group able to successfully claim UIbenefits is lower than for wage and salary earners.9, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Pro
25、gram (SNAP or food stamps) benefits: Thelegislation increases monthly SNAP benefits 15 percent through June 30； prohibits the extra$300 in UI benefits from being counted in determining SNAP benefits, and extends SNAPbenefits to additional college students. Further, we assume that the policy enacted
26、in earlierpandemic- relief legislation to allow recipients to receive the maximum benefit for their familysize will remain in effect through June 30, We also assume that the temporary suspension ofthe time limit for able-bodied adults without dependents who do not meet the workrequirement will conti
27、nue to the end of the year./ Economic impact payments (stimulus checks)： Most adults are eligible to receive a onetime payment of $600 ($1,200 for a married couple), with an additional $600 for eachdependent child under age 17, The payments begin to phase out at income levels of $75,000for unmarried
28、 people and $150,000 for married couples. We assume that most but not allpeople eligible for the payments receive them.10 We also model the December legislationsextension of payments to certain families with mixed immigration status who were ineligiblefor the firstround of stimulus checks delivered
29、in 2020. We model these families as receiving the newchecks as well as receiving the first round of checks retroactively.Our estimates also include pandemic-relief payments enacted in Colorado and the District ofColumbia in late 2020, because a portion of those payments are anticipated to be made du
30、ring 2021.11Methods for Creating the EstimatesWe project poverty rates using 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) data that we modified torepresent expected circumstances in 2021.12 We adjusted employment statuses for a sufficientnumber of people in the data so that the average monthly employment-to
31、-population ratios by age, sex,race and ethnicity, educational attainment, and nativity all match actual levels in October 2020 (themost recent data available when we made the adjustment) and so that we capture relative job loss bystate and industry.13 We also increased the incidence of part-time wo
32、rk to reflect October 2020 levels.Our assumption that the employment situation for 2021 will resemble conditions in October 2020 issomewhat more pessimistic than the Congressional Budget Offices just-released February 2021forecast, which suggests 3 million more people will be working on average in 2
33、021 than in fall 2020.14To the extent the Congressional Budget Offices forecast is accurate, our data may somewhatoverstate unemployment and poverty rates.To make the data more closely reflect 2021, we adjusted the sampling weights to reflect thepopulation in mid-2021, by age group, race and ethnici
34、ty； sex, and nativity; and we adjusted incomeamounts to reflect the nominal increases expected between 2018 and 2021 for types of income thatare anticipated to increase.After creating this 2021 data file, we applied the ATTIS model (Pyati 2020) to simulate each of thekey government benefit and tax p
35、rograms. We used the rules expected to be in place for each programin 2021 and calibrated program caseloads to expected levels. Our simulations capture key programinteractions, including interactions with pandemic-relief policies. In particular, the simulations capturehow each US safety-net program
36、treats the extra $300 in UI benefits. After all the simulations, wecalculate the SPM for people in the 2021 data file, following the Census Bureaus concepts andpoverty thresholds but using the income and resource amounts we developed using ATTIS.ConclusionsDuring 2021, after factoring in all regular
37、 safety-net benefits, taxes, and tax credits; the expanded UIand SNAP benefits; and the additional stimulus checks enacted in December, we project an SPMpoverty rate of 13.7 percent, with 4.4 percent of people in deep poverty and 45.0 percent withresources no more than twice the poverty threshold. L
38、ong-standing differences in poverty ratesremain, with non-Hispanic Black people and Hispanic people experiencing poverty at about twice therate of white people. In future work, we will examine how additional or proposed policies might affectfamilies economic well-being.Notes1234567891011See Employme
39、nt, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics Survey (National)/7 seriesCES0000000001, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed February 11, 2021,https:/data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001. These data are for seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment.See Food Sufficiency tables 2a and
40、 2b and Housing table lb at Week 21 Household Pulse Survey: December9-December 21, US Census Bureau, January 6,2021,https:/www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/hhp/hhp21.html.SeeCOVID-19 Economic Relief Bill, National Conference of State Legislatures, January 4,2021,https:/www.ncsl.org/ncsl-in-dc/pu
41、blications-and-resources/covid-19-economic-relief-bill-stimulus.aspx.Authors at the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University estimated an SPM poverty rate of13.6 percent without the December relief legislation and 12.6 percent with the legislation. See Parolin et al.(2021). Their d
42、ata source is the Current Population Survey (CPS), rather than the American Community Survey;poverty estimates based on the CPS are typically slightly lower than those based on the American CommunitySurvey. Poverty estimates can only be directly compared with other estimates that use the same defini
43、tion,underlying data source, and data adjustments.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the December 2020 unemployment rate for Black workers was 9.9percent, the rate for Hispanic workers was 9.3 percent, and the unemployment rate for white workers wasmuch lower, at 6.0 percent. See BLS datab
44、ases LNS14000003, LNS14000006, and LNS14000009, accessible athttps:/www.bls.gov/data/. See also Steven Brown, How COVID-19 is Affecting Black and Latino Families7Employment and Financial Well-Being/7 Urban Wire, May 6,2020, https:/www.urban.org/urban-wire/how-covid-19-affecting-black-and-latino-fami
45、lies-employment-and-financial-well-being.With the same methods used for the 2021 poverty projections, we estimated an SPM poverty rate of 13.9percent for 2018 ACS data after adjustment to correct for underreporting of means-tested benefits. (Thatestimate is unpublished.) Our 2018 ACS-based SPM is lo
46、wer than the SPM poverty rate of 15.3 percentestimated by the Census Bureau using the 2018 ACS data, but their methods do not include adjustments forbenefit underreporting. For the Census Bureaus 2018 ACS-based SPM poverty estimate, see Fox, Glassman,and Pacas (2020).Our 2020 poverty projections ana
47、lyses defined poverty using the official poverty thresholds and defined“resources“ as cash income plus the value of SNAP benefits plus the value of stimulus checks. This analysisdefines poverty using the SPM, which uses a broader definition of resources and different poverty thresholds.The estimates
48、 do not incorporate the impact of rental assistance funds included in the December 2020legislation because of insufficient information regarding the state and local implementation of pandemic rentalassistance programs. Because rental assistance is counted as a resource in the SPM measure (up to the
49、portionof the poverty threshold representing housing needs), our estimates of SPM poverty would be somewhat lowerif these benefits had been included.We assume that 60 percent of Ul-eligible self-employed earners successfully obtain UI benefits for the weeksavailable but that 80 percent of Ul-eligibl
50、e wage and salary earners obtain them. The simulation adjusts weeksof UI available to a particular worker in 2021 based on the imputed month of the prior year the person becameunemployed, the weeks of regular state UI and extended benefits in the persons state, and whether and whenextended benefit w
51、eeks became unavailable ftriggered off) in that state.We assume that all eligible tax filers receive the economic stimulus payment, as well as nonfilers who receiveSocial Security or Supplemental Security Income, 10 percent of family members of nonfilers who receive SocialSecurity or Supplemental Se
52、curity Income, and 78 percent of other nonfilers. Because of data limitations, weare unable to automatically assign the payment to nonfilers who receive Veterans Benefits.Colorado is paying $375 to unemployment insurance claimants, and the District of Columbia is providing$1,200 to district resident
53、s receiving UI through the special federal program for people ineligible for regularstate UI. See Polis Stimulus Payment, Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, accessed February 11,2021, https:/cdle.colorado.gov/Polis-Stimulus-Payment and Mayor Bowser Announces $1,200 LocalStimulus Payment to
54、 Support Nearly 20,000 Washingtonians/ press release, Office of the Mayor of theDistrict of Columbia, https:/mayor.dc.gov/release/mayor-bowser-announces-1200-local-stimulus-payment-support-nearly-20000-washingtonians. Our analysis does not include state or local stimulus measures thatprovided all of
55、 their benefits in 2020.12 We obtained the 2018 ACS data from the IPUMS USA Database (Ruggles et al. 2020).13 We tabulated the CPS data for October 2020 to obtain the percentages of adults with different characteristicswho were employed full time or part time in that month. We obtained the percentag
56、e changes in jobs by stateand by industry groups within states using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey data throughOctober 2020. The October 2020 data were the most recent available from these sources at the time thatwork was performed.14 See the analysis and supplemental tables in
57、 Congressional Budget Office (2021).ReferencesCongressional Budget Office. 2021.An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031/Washington, DC:Congressional Budget Office.Fox, Liana, Brian Glassman, and Jose Pacas. 2020. The Supplemental Poverty Measure Using the AmericanCommunity Survey. SEHSD wo
58、rking paper 2020-09. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, Social, Economic, andHousing Statistics Division.Giannarelli, Linda, Laura Wheaton, and Gregory Acs. 2020. 2020 Poverty Projections: Initial US Policy Responseto the COVID-19 Pandemics Economic Effects Is Projected to Blunt the Rise in Annual Po
59、verty, Washington,DC: Urban Institute.Parolin, Zachary, Sophie Collyer, Megan A. Curran, and Christopher Wimer. 2021.The Potential PovertyReduction Effect of President-Elect Bidens Economic Relief Proposal/ New York: Center on Poverty andSocial Policy at Columbia University.Pyati, Archana. 2020. The
60、 Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security (ATTIS) Model/ Washington, DC:Urban Institute.Ruggles, Steven, Sarah Flood, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, Erin Meyer, Jose Pacas, and Matthew Sobek. 2020.IPUMS USA: Version 10.0 dataset. Minne叩olis, MN: IPUMS.About the AuthorsLinda Giannarelli is a
61、senior fellow in the Income and Benefits Policy Center at the Urban Institute.She leads the group that develops the ATTIS model, codirects work with the TRI M3 simulation model,and is a national expert on the use of microsimulation modeling to study income supports for lower-income Americans. She al
62、so studies participation rates among people eligible for safety-net programs,state policy variations in the provision of cash assistance and child care subsidies, and the impact ofincreased earnings on the net economic resources of lower-income families.Laura Wheaton is a senior fellow in the Income
63、 and Benefits Policy Center. She codirects the TRIM3microsimulation project and is a lead analyst for ATTIS, the Urban Institutes ACS-based simulationmodel. Wheaton is a national expert on the use of microsimulation modeling to study income supportsfor lower-income Americans. She also specializes in
64、 SNAP and has conducted research on SNAPeligibility and participation, churning, asset limits, work requirements, and the potential effects ofproposed policy changes.Katie Shantz is a senior research associate in the Income and Benefits Policy Center. She serves as theproject manager for the Welfare
65、 Rules Database, documenting Temporary Assistance for NeedyFamilies across time for the 50 states and District of Columbia. She also works on the TRIM3 andATTIS microsimulation models. Her research focuses primarily on social safety net programs, povertyreduction, poverty measurement, and tax policy
66、.AcknowledgmentsThis brief was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. We are grateful to them and to allour funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission.The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Robert WoodJohnson Foundation or to the U
67、rban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Funders do not determineresearch findings or the insights and recommendations of Urban experts. Further information on theUrban Institutes funding principles is available at urban.org/fundingprinciples.The authors gratefully acknowledge the large team th
68、at designed and implemented the manypolicy simulations underlying these estimates, including: Sarah Minton, Joyce Morton, Ilham Dehry,Kelly Dwyer, Paul Johnson, Sarah Knowles, Danielle Kwon, Elaine Maag, Silke Taylor, and KevinWerner. We also owe thanks to Jeffrey Passel for developing the 2021 popu
69、lation weight adjustments;to Janet Holtzblatt； Jack Smalligan, and Wayne Vroman for advising on policy changes; and to GregoryAcs, Sarah Minton； and Elaine Waxman for support in developing the assumptions and for theircomments on earlier drafts.; ; U ltBAKJS U T E500 LEnfant Plaza SWWashington, DC 2
70、0024www.urban.orgABOUT THE URBAN INSTITUTEThe nonprofit Urban Institute is a leading research organization dedicated todeveloping evidence-based insights that improve peoples lives and strengthencommunities. For 50 years, Urban has been the trusted source for rigorous analysisof complex social and e
71、conomic issues; strategic advice to policymakers,philanthropists, and practitioners; and new, promising ideas that expandopportunities for all. Our work inspires effective decisions that advance fairnessand enhance the well-being of people and places.Copyright February 2021. Urban Institute. Permission is granted forreproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute.
