《CHINAIPPS：DIVINGINTODATAPOINTSAMIDINDUSTRYUPCYCLE1026》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《CHINAIPPS：DIVINGINTODATAPOINTSAMIDINDUSTRYUPCYCLE1026（20页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Top picksBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyDatedemandDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchAsiaChinaUtilitiesUtilitiesIndustryChina IPPsDate25 October 2012Industry UpdateMichael Tong, CFAEric Cheng, CFADiving into datapoints amid industryResearch Analyst(+852) 2203 6167Research Analyst(+852) 2203 6202up-cycleMore upbeat after
2、analysis of industry datapointsWith IPPs entering an earnings up-cycle, we resume publication of a quarterlyupdate on sector datapoints, providing the latest trends in power consumption,coal prices, new capacity and utilisation. We believe investors will be moreassured regarding a continued earnings
3、 rise in 2013E after getting abreast ofthe sequential data series through 2012. We retain our view that IPPs are in abright spot due to a weak coal price outlook amid a potential utilisation pick-up. Sector valuations remain attractive at 0.6-1.2x P/B vs. FY13E ROE of 10-17%. Also, FCF is turning po
4、sitive for the first time in many years, securingdecent dividend yield. Our top picks are CR Power and Huaneng Power.Power demand growth remains sluggish; up 2.9% in SeptChinas power consumption in 1-9M12 was up 4.8% yoy, while the Sept risewas only 2.9% yoy. The sluggish demand growth YTD is due to
5、 weak powerdemand in the secondary and primary sectors, which rose 2.9% and -0.3%respectively. Power demand in the commercial and residential sectors remainsstrong and registered double-digit growth of c.11%. For 4Q, we expect powerdemand to steadily pick up and we forecast 5.8% yoy growth for 2012.
6、Thermal output growth negative for six consecutive monthsMonthly thermal power output has declined for six consecutive months, withSept down 8% yoy. This decline has been driven by strong hydro output thisyear (+52% in Sept), and weak power demand. YTD, thermal utilization fell 7%yoy while hydro uti
7、lization rose 17% yoy. Thus, we believe thermal IPPearnings have more upside potential when the hydro situation eric-Kai-Ting Wong, CFAResearch Analyst(+852) 2203 6235kai-Huaneng Power Intl (0902.HK),HKD6.01China Resources Power(0836.HK),HKD16.36Companies FeaturedDatang Intl Power (0991.HK),HKD2.87
8、 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E (x) 13.77 9.28 6.11EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 8.7 7.5Price/book (x) 0.7 0.8 0.7Huaneng Power Intl (0902.HK),HKD6.01 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E (x) 39.59 10.68 6.76EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.7 5.9Price/book (x) 0.9 1.2 1.1China Resources PowerNew thermal capacity additions down 22% YTDIn 1-9M1
9、2, China added 41GW of new capacity, considerably lower than in thesame period last year. During the 1H and 3Q conference calls, the China IPPsguided lower capex for new thermal capacity, due to low profitability and fuelcost uncertainty. On the other hand, new hydro capacity has increased 7% to(083
10、6.HK),HKD16.36P/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)Price/book (x)2011A 2012E 2013E18.36 12.07 8.898.9 8.3 6.51.3 1.3 1.29GW. The slower thermal capacity growth is beneficial for China IPPs as it willraise utilization levels after demand picks up.China Power Intl (2380.HK),HKD2.172011A 2012E 2013ECoal prices continue
11、 to be weak; coal inventory has hit all-time highDespite the Daqin maintenance that was carried out on 8 Oct and additionalseasonal coal demand from winter stockpiling, coal prices only edged upP/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)Price/book (x)14.3612.50.67.969.10.66.187.30.6Rmb10/t WoW to Rmb640/t. The current spo
12、t coal price is 17% yoy lower thanin 1H12. Coal inventory at power plants has also reached an all-time high of 31Huadian Power (1071.HK),HKD2.142011A 2012E 2013Edays vs. the historical average of 15-20 days. We expect coal prices to remainweak due to high inventory and increased coal supply, as FAI
13、in coal mininghas been increasing at a double-digit pace for the past few years, whileP/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)Price/book (x)11.80.58.677.30.64.975.70.6thermal capacity addition has slowed to single-digit pace. We expect theaverage spot coal price to decline 14% and 9% in 2012 and 2013, respectively.Rela
14、ted recent researchDCF-based target prices; key risksRecovery on track despiteweaker-than-expected power15 Oct 2012We value the sector using DCF through 2020, assuming WACCs of 8.8-9.4%.Key downside risks include a coal price rebound, falling utilization rates, equityplacement and non-power business
15、 delays._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seek
16、s to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURE
17、S ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.Jan/11Feb/11Mar/11Apr/11May/11Jun/11Jul/11Aug/11Sep/11Oct/11Nov/11Dec/11Jan/12Feb/12Mar/12Apr/12May/12Jun/12Jul/12Aug/12Sep/12Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May
18、-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-121-2M10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-101-2M11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-111-2M12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-1225 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsMonthly power sector updatePower consumption remains weak;
19、up 2.9% yoy in SeptAccording to the CEC, Chinas power consumption increased 2.9% yoy in Sept2012. Since April, Chinas power consumption growth has remained at lessthan 6% yoy, vs. its double-digit growth in 2011. In 1-9M12, power demandwas up 4.8% yoy.Decoding by source of consumption, primary indus
20、try demand growth wasweakest, at -0.3% in 1-9M12, followed by secondary industry at a mere 2.9%yoy. Commercial and residential demand remains strong and was up 11.3%and 11.6% yoy, respectively.We project 5.8% yoy growth for 2012, and 8.6% yoy growth for 2013.Figure 1: Monthly power consumption total
21、Figure 2: Monthly power consumption industrial500Total (bn kWh)YoY growth30%400Industry (bn kWh)yoy30%450400350300250200Source: Deutsche Bank, Wind25%20%15%10%5%0%350300250200150100500Source: Deutsche Bank, Wind25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%Figure 3: Monthly yoy power consumption growth rate by industryYTD, re
22、sidential and35%IndustryResidentialCommercialcommercial power usages30%have been more resilientthan industrial usage.25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, WindPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDec-03Mar-04Jun-04Sep-04Dec-04Mar-05Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08
23、Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12InnerMongoliaHubeiLiaoningZhejiangHainanHunanHenanFujianShanghaiGuangxiHeilongjiangGuangdongShandongChongqingGuizhouXinjiangTianjinShanxiGansuShaanxiNingxiaSichuanAnhuiTibetQinghaiYunnanJiangx
24、iJiangsuBeijingHebeiJilin2.513%25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 4: Power consumption growth vs. GDP growth (quarterly)The elasticity ratio has2.01.51.00.5Elasticity of Electricity production growthGDP growthElectricity Production Growth30%25%20%15%10%5%declined significantly thisyear to 0.7x
25、 in 1-3Q12. Weexpect elasticity to return to1.0x in 2013E as industrialsector activity picks up.0%0.0-0.5Source: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 5: Power generation growth by province (1-9M12)30%25%20%-5%-10%25%23%15%10%5%1% 1% 1% 2%2% 2% 3% 3%5% 5% 5% 5%6% 7% 7% 8% 8%10%11%0%-5%-10%-7%-6% -4%-4%-3% -3% -
26、2%0%-15%-10%Source: Deutsche Bank, WindPower generation growth is highest in the western provinces, such as Qinghaiand Xinjiang, due in part to Chinas western development strategy and tomanufacturing relocations.Power generation growth in the coastal regions has been relatively weak, withnegative gr
27、owth for Shanghai, Tianjin and Zhejiang due to weak exportdemand.Chinas power consumption mix continues to be dominated by secondaryindustry, accounting for 73% of total demand in 1-9M12 (Figure 5).Chinas power generation continues to be mainly dominated by coal-firedgeneration, accounting for 79% o
28、f 1-9M12 output.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 3Jan-95Jul-95Jan-96Jul-96Jan-97Jul-97Jan-98Jul-98Jan-99Jul-99Jan-00Jul-00Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-11Jan-12Jan-09Jan-10Jul-09Jul-10
29、Jul-11Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Jul-12May-09May-10May-11May-12Sep-12Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Sep-11Jan-12Sep-09Nov-09Sep-10Nov-10Nov-11Mar-12Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Jul-12May-09May-10May-11May-12Sep-1225 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 6: Power consumptio
30、n mix (1-9M12)Figure 7: Power generation mix (1-9M12)Residential13%Primaryindustry2%Nuclear2%Others3%Hydro16%Commercial12%SecondarySource: Deutsche Bank, CEICPower generationFigure 8: Monthly power generationindustry73%Thermal79%Source: Deutsche Bank, Windbn kWh500450400350300250200150100500Source:
31、Deutsche Bank, China Electricity CouncilPower generationyoy (%)40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Figure 9: Thermal generation outputFigure 10: Hydro generation output500450400350300250200150100500Thermal (bn kWh)YoY (%)50403020100-10-201009080706050403020100Hydro (bn kWh)YoY (%)6050403020100-10-20-30Source: Deu
32、tsche Bank, China Electricity CouncilPage 4Source: Deutsche Bank, China Electricity CouncilDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongJul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-Feb10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-Feb11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-Feb12
33、Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-121-2M091-3M121-9M081-4M091-6M091-8M091-3M101-5M101-7M101-9M101-2M111-4M111-6M111-8M111-5M121-7M121-11M081-10M091-12M091-11M101-10M111-12M111-9M122015105025 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsThermal power generation continues to be very weak, and has experiencedn
34、egative growth for six consecutive months. In Sept, thermal power outputwas down 8% yoy.The weak thermal generation in the past few months was largely due to thesignificant increase in hydro generation this year. As a result, some of thethermal plants in the rich hydro provinces, such as Hunan, Yunn
35、an, andChongqing, are making losses.New capacityFigure 11: Monthly new installed capacity (May 2009 to Sept 2012)41GW of new capacity wasTotal new capacityHydroCoaladded in 1-9M12, muchlower than 1-9M11s3049.6GW.25Thermal and hydro installedcapacity increased by25.8GW and 9.4GW,respectively.The ther
36、mal capacityaddition was 22% lowerSource: Deutsche Bank, CEICFigure 12: Accumulative newly installed capacitythan the same period lastyear while hydro was 7%higher.Total new capacityHydroCoal120100806040200Source: Deutsche Bank, CEICCoal power plants accounted for 72% of Chinas total installed capac
37、ity in 1-9M12 (Figure 13).However, the mix is changing, with more investment being poured intorenewable energy, such as wind, solar and hydro.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 5Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Jan-11Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Jul-1225 October 2
38、012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 13: 1-9M12 installed capacity mixFigure 14: 1-9M newly installed capacity mixWind4%Others2%Wind,13%Others,2%Thermal72%Source: Deutsche Bank, CEICUtilization rateFigure 15: Average utilization aggregatedHydro22%Thermal,62%Source: Deutsche Bank, CEICHydro,23%National utili
39、zation rate:52% in 1-9M12 vs. 51%, 54%57%20082009201020112012and 55% during the same55%53%51%49%47%45%period in 2009, 2010, and2011, respectively.1-2M1-3M1-4M1-5M1-6M1-7M1-8M1-9M1-10M1-11M1-12MSource: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 16: Utilization rate trend (single month)70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%ThermalHy
40、droThere is a strong seasonalityin hydro power utilizationthroughout the year.The hydro utilization rate inSept 2012 was 56.7%, muchhigher than in previousyears.Source: Deutsche Bank, WindPage 6Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongMaySepMarNovAugDecJunFebJanAprOctJulJan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Ma
41、r-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11May-11Jul-11Sep-11Nov-11Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Sep-125045403525 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 17: Wind utilization (Longyuan proxy)Monthly wind utilization has300hrs201020112012been lower than in previousyears on grid curtailmentand lower wind speed.2
42、5020015010050Source: Deutsche Bank, Company dataFigure 18: Aggregated utilization hours (1-9M12)Utilization hours in 1-9M12were down 164hrs or 5%yoy. Hydro was up 400hrs or4,0003,500Average utilization hrsyoy growth25%20%17%, and thermal was down279hrs or 7%.3,00015%2,5002,0001,5001,00050003,439-5%T
43、otal3,707-7%Thermal17%2,788Hydro10%5%0%-5%-10%Source: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 19: Daily water-flow in Chinas Three GorgesWater-flow levels in ChinasThree Gorges Water outflow (LHS, 000cm/s)ThreeGorgesis302520151050Source: Deutsche Bank, WindDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongThree Gorges Dam water level (R
44、HS, m)180175170165160155150145140substantially higher in 2012than in 2011 and marginallyhigher than the historicalaverage.Page 7Apr-10Aug-10Apr-11Aug-11Apr-12Aug-12Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Jun-12Jun-10Jun-11Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Oct-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Jun-11Oct-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12May-11May-
45、12Apr-11Aug-11Apr-12 Jun-12Nov-10Nov-11Aug-12Jul-11Sep-11Jul-12Dec-11Dec-10Sep-12May-12Mar-10May-10Mar-11May-11Nov-10Nov-11Mar-12Sep-10Jan-10Jan-11Sep-11Jan-12Sep-12Jul-10Jul-11Jul-1225 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsSpot coal price and sea freightFigure 20: Qinhuangdao spot coal priceQinhuangdao sp
46、ot coal priceRmb/t950900850800Datong Premium (6,000kCal)Shanxi Premium (5,500kCal)(5,500kcal Datong premium)has weakened substantiallysince end-May, fromRmb785/t to Rmb615/t inmid-July.750700650600Coal prices have sincestabilized at Rmb640-650/tbetween August andOctober.Source: Deutsche Bank, WindFi
47、gure 21: Bohai Rim coal indexThe Bohai-Rim coal priceRmb/t900850800750700650600Source: Deutsche Bank, WindBohai Rimindex, which tracks thermalcoal prices at six ports, alsoregistered similar declines inspot coal prices.Figure 22: Qinhuangdao Newcastle spot coal price comparisonDespite the rapid decl
48、ine inUS$/ton14013012011010090Datong Premium (5,500kCal) (US$/t)Newcastle (FOB,US$/t) (5,500kCal)Qinhuangdaos coal pricesince May, the internationalcoal price has weakenedsignificantly since late Septand the price gap with thedomestic spot coal price hasexpanded again.80Source: Deutsche Bank, WindPa
49、ge 8Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongMay-10May-11May-12Sep-09Nov-09Sep-10Nov-10Sep-11Nov-11Jul-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Sep-12Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Rmb/t25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 23: China IPPs coal priceThe spot coal price on 22Datong Premium (6,000kcal) Shanxi Premium (5,500kcal)S
50、hanxi Blend (5,000kcal)Oct 2012 was 22% lowerCurrent Price (22700640560than in 2Q12.Oct, 2012)Average 3Q12Average 2Q12Average 1Q12Average 2011Average 2010Average 2009708825834873796660634772779820751622540670677715652540If coal prices stay at thecurrent level through to2013, the average spot coalpri
51、ce decline in 2012 and2013 will be 14% and 9%respectively.% changeCurrent vs. 20113Q12 vs. 20112Q12 vs. 20111Q12 vs. 20122011 vs. 20102010 vs. 2009-20%-19%-6%-4%10%21%-22%-23%-6%-5%9%21%-22%-24%-6%-5%10%21%Source: Deutsche Bank, Industry dataFigure 24: Mine-mouth vs. port coal priceMine-mouth coal p
52、rices haveShanxi, Taiyuan (5,500kCal)Shandong, Tengzhou (5,500kCal)Inner Mongolia, Dongsheng (5,200kCal)Shaanxi, Yulin (6,000kCal)been declining rapidly sinceJune 2012.1000TheShandongTengzhou9005,500kCalcoalpricehas800experiencedthemost700600500400substantial decline since itspeak in May.Compared to
53、 the Bohai Rim300indexwhichtrackscoal200prices at the six ports, thecoal price decline at the coalmines has a 1-2 month lag.Source: Deutsche Bank, WindStock implication: thus, forIPPs with a big exposure tomine-mouth coal mines (CPI2380.HK, Huadian 1071.HK),the fuel cost decline impactwill be felt m
54、ainly in Aug-Sep 2012, vs. June-July forIPP in coastal areas.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 9Feb-10May-10Aug-08Nov-08Feb-09May-09Aug-09Feb-11May-11Feb-12May-12Nov-09Aug-10Nov-10Aug-11Nov-11Aug-12May-11May-08May-09May-10May-12Sep-09Sep-08Sep-10Sep-11Jun-09Jun-10Jun-11Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Dec-09Dec-10Dec
55、-11Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-09Apr-10Oct-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12Sep-12Jan-09Jan-12Jan-08Jan-10Jan-1125 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 25: Qinhuangdao coal inventorymn tons109876543Source: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 26: Coal inventory days at power plants(days)35302520151050Source: Deutsche Bank
56、, WindCoal inventories at the Qinhuangdao port dropped from over 9m tons in Juneto 5.3m tons in Oct, as many coal traders expect further coal price declinesahead due to weak power demand. However, at 5.3m tons, coal inventory isstill considered sufficient. A shortage occurs when coal inventory is be
57、low 5mtons.Power plants coal inventory also remains high and trending upwards to over30 days, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 15-20 days.Overall, we see ample coal inventory at power plants and believe that most ofthe winter stocking has been done. Thus, going forward, w
58、e expectQinhuangdao coal inventory to edge up in the upcoming months.Figure 27: Investment in the coal sectorAggregate coal investment YoY growthAggregate thermal capacity YoY growth80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%Source: Deutsche Bank, WINDDespite recent news flow on production cuts, monthly raw coal
59、 production inrecent months has remained high at more than 300m tonsWhile FAI in the coal mining sector has also maintained double-digit growth inthe last three years, thermal power capacity growth has slowed significantlysince Jan 2011. This suggests potentially lower coal demand vs. supply in thef
60、uture.Page 10Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongOct-11Jul-11Jan-11Jun-11Dec-11Jan-12Mar-11Mar-12Feb-11Feb-12Aug-11Sep-11 Nov-11Jun-12Apr-11Apr-12Jul-12Aug-12May-11May-12Sep-12Dec-11Jan-11Jun-11Oct-11Jan-12Jun-12Jul-11Feb-11Mar-11Feb-12Mar-12Aug-11Sep-11Nov-11Apr-12Apr-11Jul-12Aug-12May-11Oct-09Dec-09Feb-10Ap
61、r-10Jun-10Aug-10Oct-10Dec-10Feb-11Apr-11Jun-11Aug-11Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12May-12Sep-12Dec-09Jun-10Dec-10Jun-11Dec-11Aug-10Feb-11Feb-10Aug-11Feb-12 Jun-12Apr-11Oct-09Apr-10Oct-10Oct-11Apr-12Aug-1225 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 28: Coal seaborne freight index (China)Domestic se
62、a freight rates2,4002,2002,000QHD-ShanghaiQHD-GuangzhouCCBFIfor bulk goods (CCBFI)stayed flat over the pastmonth, but are c.30% off thepeak in Mar 2011.1,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800Qinhuangdao-Guangzhouand Shanghai cost of coalfreight has continued todecline by 5% over the lastmonth, and compared wit
63、hthe peak in Mar 2011, bothprices are 40% lower.Source: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 29: BDIBDI2,4002,0001,6001,200800400Source: Deutsche Bank, WindOutput growth of key electricity consuming sectorsThe BDI is still trading below800 in Sept.Figure 30: Crude steel production outputSteel Output (1,000) to
64、nsFigure 31: Aluminum production outputAluminium output (1,000) tons700600500400300200100yoy growth (%)50%40%30%20%10%0%2018161412108642yoy growth (%)706050403020100-100-200Source: Deutsche Bank, WindDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong-10%Source: Deutsche Bank, WindPage 11Oct-09Dec-09Feb-10Apr-10Jun-10Aug-10
65、Oct-10Dec-10Feb-11Apr-11Jun-11Aug-11Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-09Dec-09Feb-10Apr-10Jun-10Aug-10Oct-10Dec-10Feb-11Apr-11Jun-11Aug-11Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Jun-10Jun-11Feb-10Feb-11Dec-09Aug-10 Dec-10Aug-11 Dec-11Feb-12Jun-12Feb-10Jun-10Feb-11Jun-11Feb-12Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11Aug-
66、11Aug-10Jun-12Aug-12Oct-10Oct-09Apr-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12Aug-12Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-11Oct-09Oct-1025 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsFigure 32: Ferroalloy production outputFerroalloy output (1,000) tonsFigure 33: Cement production outputCement output (1,000) tons312927252321191715yoy growth (%)120100
67、806040200-20-402300210019001700150013001100900700500yoy growth (%)6050403020100-10-20Source: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 34: Ten non-ferrous metals production outputsNon-ferrous Metals output (1,000) tonsSource: Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 35: Caustic soda production outputCaustic soda (1,000) tons34323
68、02826242220yoy growth (%)50403020100-102422201816141210yoy growth (%)6050403020100-10-20Source: Deutsche Bank, WindPage 12Source: Deutsche Bank, WindDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage13ChinaIPPsUtilities25October2012-Figure 36: Deutsche Bank long-term capacity growth forecast by f
69、uel typeEnd of year capacity (GW)Coalchg.OilHydrochg.NuclearGasWindSolar & BiomassTotalYoY chg (%)CoalOilHydroNuclearGasWindSolar & BiomassTotalDemandPower consumption(TWh)Consumption % chgPower generation (bn kWh)CoalConventional hydro *20075276481452091851712200713.8%-20.2%15.9%0.0%18.1%76.9%0.0%1
70、4.0%20073,22114.4%20072,7234852008575486172279209179220089.2%-20.0%18.3%0.0%9.3%93.5%0.0%11.1%20083,4385.2%20082,79063720096275241972592116287620099.0%-33.3%14.8%0.0%5.0%80.9%100.0%10.6%20093,6436.0%20093,012616201068053321619112629096620108.5%-25.0%9.8%22.3%25.8%80.1%45.0%10.3%20104,19215.1%20103,4
71、1568620117305032311413334521,05620117.3%0.0%6.7%16.2%23.6%55.3%671.4%9.3%20114,69311.9%20113,8986632012E7683832481815435991,1442012E5.2%0.0%7.6%15.9%30.6%30.0%334.1%8.4%2012E4,9645.8%2012E3,8627702013E81345326719235573171,2492013E5.9%0.0%7.7%54.9%28.1%23.9%77.0%9.2%2013E5,3918.6%2013E4,1707772014E86
72、855328720346591241,3712014E6.8%0.0%7.5%48.7%18.3%24.8%43.5%9.7%2014E5,8668.8%2014E4,4348292015E923553308214275110321,4912015E6.3%0.0%7.2%23.8%15.5%21.0%33.4%8.8%2015E6,3508.3%2015E4,6998802016E973503327195081130391,6022016E5.4%0.0%6.2%19.2%8.0%18.3%23.5%7.4%2016E6,7947.0%2016E4,9589262017E1023503346
73、195887150481,7132017E5.1%0.0%5.8%16.1%7.4%15.4%21.6%7.0%2017E7,2707.0%2017E5,2589652018E1073503365196693170581,8272018E4.9%0.0%5.5%13.9%6.9%13.4%21.9%6.6%2018E7,7066.0%2018E5,5171,0052019E1123503384197399190711,9422019E4.7%0.0%5.2%10.7%6.5%11.8%22.3%6.3%2019E8,1686.0%2019E5,8021,0452020E117350340218
74、80105210852,0562020E4.5%0.0%4.7%9.6%6.1%10.6%18.9%5.9%2020E8,6586.0%2020E6,1191,084WindNuclearGasSolar & Biomass50770.37387-931031241112214116120164213197292172862303826034625647305407276583504682967039552531686440578335102Total3,2823,4963,7154,2284,7224,9645,3915,8666,3506,7947,2707,7068,1688,658So
75、urce: Deutsche Bank, CEICPage14DeutscheBankAG/HongKongChinaIPPsUtilities25October2012Figure 37: Monthly power statistics1-9M111-10M111-11M11FY 20111-2M121-3M121-4M121-5M121-6M121-7M121-8M121-9M12National total power consumption (b kwh)Primary industrySecondary industryCommercialResidentialIndustrial
76、Light industryHeavy industryPower consumption growthGross generation (b kwh)HydroThermalNuclearOthersAccumulated average utilization (hours)HydroThermal3,516802,6243844282,5814332,149-2%3,4544672,85365683,6032,3883,9863,895872,9094254742,8624812,382-1%3,8185173,15372763,9712,6394,3914,284953,2074665
77、173,1555292,6260%4,1945683,46179864,3532,8714,8224,6931023,5195085653,4635832,8801%4,7136993,83486944,7313,0285,2947501253294112523834402.8%7196960913287203268371,166198391401688251316934.8%1,14511196125481,1165161,2951,555271,1291822181,1111829296.0%1,5121571,26632561,4807281,7051,962361,4432222611
78、,4192331,18640.1%1,9102231,57839711,8531,0632,0972,376471,7582673041,7302861,44426.0%2,2952911,87146862,2341,4552,4892,833592,0983193572,0643411,72424.2%2,7443942,20055952,6451,9012,9073,283702,4183764182,3793971,98223.9%3,1914892,528631113,0652,3803,3293,688802,7024294782,6584522,20623.3%3,5835732,
79、815721233,4392,7883,707NuclearCoal consumption rate (g/kwh)Auxiliary usageHydroThermalNew greenfield capacity (GW)HydroThermalOthers3285.5%0.4%6.3%49.68.73383295.5%0.4%6.6%60.410.14193295.4%0.4%6.2%66.310.346103300.0%0.0%0.0%90.412.359193195.4%0.6%5.9%3.90.430.73205.4%0.6%5.9%9.21.361.53215.4%0.6%5.
80、9%14.92.1102.43235.4%0.5%6.0%18.32.9123.13245.5%0.5%6.0%25.95.6164.33245.5%0.4%6.2%28.96.0185.03255.3%0.4%6.2%34.78.0215.63255.3%0.4%6.2%41.49.4266.2Source: Deutsche Bank, Industry dataNANA1.7.8.1.7.25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upo
81、n requestDisclosure checklistCompanyDatang Intl PowerHuaneng Power IntlChina Resources PowerChina Power IntlHuadian PowerTicker0991.HK0902.HK0836.HK2380.HK1071.HKRecent price*2.87 (HKD) 24 Oct 126.00 (HKD) 24 Oct 1216.36 (HKD) 24 Oct 122.18 (HKD) 24 Oct 122.14 (HKD) 24 Oct 12DisclosureNA1,7,8NA*Pric
82、es are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United State
83、s.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offeringfor this company, for which it received fees.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensati
84、on from this company for the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months.Important Disclosures R
85、equired by Non-U.S. RegulatorsPlease also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offeringfor this company, for which it received fe
86、es.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch
87、, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issue
88、rs. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Michael TongDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 15SecurityPriceSecurityPrice1.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.1.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsHist
89、orical recommendations and target price: Datang Intl Power (0991.HK)(as of 10/24/2012)3.50Previous Recommendations3.001236789Strong BuyBuyMarket Perform2.5045UnderperformNot RatedSuspended Rating2.00Current Recommendations1.501.000.50BuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structurea
90、s of September 9,20020.00Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12Jul 12Date29/11/2010:27/04/2011:19/05/2011:29/08/2011:07/11/2011:Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change HKD3.20Hold, Target Price Change HKD3.00Hold, Target Price Change HKD2.90Hold, Target Price Change HKD2.70Upgrade to Buy, Target
91、Price Change HKD3.1003/03/2012:18/04/2012:15/07/2012:14/10/2012:Buy, Target Price Change HKD3.40Buy, Target Price Change HKD3.20Buy, Target Price Change HKD3.90Buy, Target Price Change HKD3.50Historical recommendations and target price: Huaneng Power Intl (0902.HK)(as of 10/24/2012)7.00Previous Reco
92、mmendations6.0089Strong BuyBuy5.0012367Market PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended Rating4.003.0045Current RecommendationsBuyHold2.001.00SellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12Jul 12Date29/11/2010:19/04/2011:19/0
93、5/2011:09/08/2011:Hold, Target Price Change HKD4.50Hold, Target Price Change HKD4.40Hold, Target Price Change HKD4.70Hold, Target Price Change HKD4.4003/03/2012:18/04/2012:15/07/2012:14/10/2012:Buy, Target Price Change HKD6.30Buy, Target Price Change HKD6.20Buy, Target Price Change HKD8.80Buy, Targe
94、t Price Change HKD8.6007/11/2011:Page 16Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change HKD5.50Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongSecurityPriceSecurityPrice1.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.1.5.2.6.3.7.4.8.25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsHistorical recommendations and target price: China Resources Power (0836.HK)(as of 10/24/2012)20.
95、00Previous Recommendations18.0016.0014.0012345678910Strong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot Rated12.0010.008.006.004.002.000.00Suspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12Ju
96、l 12Date29/11/2010:17/03/2011:19/05/2011:22/08/2011:07/11/2011:Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.00Buy, Target Price Change HKD18.80Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.00Buy, Target Price Change HKD18.20Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.7003/03/2012:19/03/2012:16/05/2012:15/07/2012:10. 14/10/2012:Buy, Target P
97、rice Change HKD20.20Buy, Target Price Change HKD21.10Buy, Target Price Change HKD21.00Buy, Target Price Change HKD26.20Buy, Target Price Change HKD24.50Historical recommendations and target price: China Power Intl (2380.HK)(as of 10/24/2012)2.50Previous Recommendations2.0012345678Strong BuyBuyMarket
98、 PerformUnderperformNot Rated1.501.000.50Suspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12Jul 12Date29/11/2010:10/08/2011:07/11/2011:03/03/2012:Hold, Target Price Change HKD1.80
99、Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.30Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.80Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.6525/03/2012:16/05/2012:15/07/2012:14/10/2012:Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.70Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.60Buy, Target Price Change HKD4.00Buy, Target Price Change HKD3.25Deutsche Bank AG/Hong
100、 KongPage 17SecurityPrice81.5.2.6.3.7.4.8.25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsHistorical recommendations and target price: Huadian Power (1071.HK)(as of 10/24/2012)3.00Previous RecommendationsStrong Buy2.507BuyMarket PerformUnderperform2.0012456Not RatedSuspended Rating1.501.000.503Current Recommendat
101、ionsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12Jul 12Date29/11/2010:19/05/2011:07/11/2011:03/03/2012:Hold, Target Price Change HKD1.70Hold, Target Price Change HKD1.90Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.20
102、Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.8018/04/2012:16/05/2012:15/07/2012:14/10/2012:Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.70Buy, Target Price Change HKD2.60Buy, Target Price Change HKD4.00Buy, Target Price Change HKD3.50Equity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- m
103、onth view of totalshare-holder return (TSR = percentage change inshare price from current price to projected target priceplus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that45040035030025056 %38 %investors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommen
104、d that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months20015010050011 %Buy16 %Hold6%10 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or Sell.Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking RelationshipNotes:1. Newly issued research recommendations andtarget price
105、s always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month periodAsia-Pacific UniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell
106、: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage 18Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong25 October 2012UtilitiesChina IPPsRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at
107、https:/ under theDisclosures Lookup and Legal tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.2. Short-Term Trade IdeasDeutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that areconsistent or inconsistent with Deu
108、tsche Banks existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at theSOLAR link at http:/.3. Country-Specific DisclosuresAustralia and New Zealand: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for wholesale clients within themeaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zeala
109、nd Financial Advisors Act respectively.Brazil: The views expressed above accurately reflect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies) andits(their) securities, including in relation to Deutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) isindirectly affected by reven
110、ues deriving from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank. In cases whereat least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starting with +55 country code) has taken part in thepreparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assume
111、s primary responsibility forits content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483.EUcountries:DisclosuresrelatingtoourobligationsunderMiFiDcanbefoundathttp:/ Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law: Company name - Deutsche Securiti
112、es Inc.Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau(Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, The Financial FuturesAssociation of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association. Co
113、mmissions and risks involved in stock transactions - forstock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by thecommission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuationsand other fa
114、ctors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchangefluctuations. Moodys, Standard & Poors, and Fitch mentioned in this report are not registered credit ratingagencies in Japan unless “Japan” or Nippon is specifically designated in the name of the entity
115、.Russia: This information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute,any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 19Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAsia-Pacific locationsDeutsche Bank A
116、GDeutsche Bank PlaceLevel 16Corner of Hunter & Phillip StreetsSydney, NSW 2000AustraliaTel: (61) 2 8258 1234Deutsche Bank (Malaysia)BerhadLevel 18-20Menara IMC8 Jalan Sultan IsmailKuala Lumpur 50250Deutsche Bank AGFiliale HongkongInternational Commerce Centre,1 Austin Road West,Kowloon,Hong Kongtel:
117、 (852) 2203 8888In association withDeutsche Regis Partners, Inc.Level 23, Tower OneAyala Triangle, Ayala AvenueMakati City, PhilippinesTel: (63) 2 894 6600Deutsche Equities India Pte Ltd3rd Floor, Kodak House222, Dr D.N. RoadFort, Mumbai 400 001SEBI Nos: INB231196834INB011196830, INF231196834Tel: (9
118、1) 22 6658 4600Deutsche Securities Korea Co.17th Floor, YoungPoong Bldg.,33 SeoRin-Dong,Chongro-Ku, Seoul (110-752)Republic of KoreaTel: (82) 2 316 8888Deutsche Securities Inc.2-11-1 NagatachoSanno Park TowerChiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171JapanTel: (81) 3 5156 6770Deutsche Bank AGSingaporeOne Raffles Qua
119、ySouth TowerSingapore 048583Tel: (65) 6423 8001MalaysiaTel: (60) 3 2053 6760Deutsche Securities Asia LtdTaiwan BranchLevel 6296 Jen-Ai Road, Sec 4Taipei 106TaiwanTel: (886) 2 2192 2888International locationsIn association withTISCO Securities Co., LtdTISCO Tower48/8 North Sathorn RoadBangkok 10500Th
120、ailandTel: (66) 2 633 6470In association withPT Deutsche Verdhana IndonesiaDeutsche Bank Building,6th Floor, Jl. Imam Bonjol No.80,Central Jakarta,IndonesiaTel: (62 21) 318 9541Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.60 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005United States of AmericaTel: (1) 212 250 2500Deutsche Bank AG
121、London1 Great Winchester StreetLondon EC2N 2EQUnited KingdomTel: (44) 20 7545 8000Deutsche Bank AGGroe Gallusstrae 10-1460272 Frankfurt am MainGermanyTel: (49) 69 910 00Deutsche Bank AGDeutsche Bank PlaceLevel 16Corner of Hunter & Phillip StreetsSydney, NSW 2000AustraliaTel: (61) 2 8258 1234Deutsche
122、 Bank AGFiliale HongkongInternational Commerce Centre,1 Austin Road West,Kowloon,Hong KongTel: (852) 2203 8888Deutsche Securities Inc.2-11-1 NagatachoSanno Park TowerChiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171JapanTel: (81) 3 5156 6770Global DisclaimerThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deut
123、sche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively Deutsche Bank). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from publicsources believed to be reliable. Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.Deutsche Bank may engag
124、e in securities transactions, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this research report. In addition, others within Deutsche Bank, includingstrategists and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that taken in this research report.Opinio
125、ns, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to changewithout notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or
126、to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes orsubsequently becomes inaccurate. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for informational purposes only. It
127、is not an offer or a solicitation of anoffer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst judgement.As a result of Deutsche Banks March 2010 acquisition of BHF-Bank AG, a security ma
128、y be covered by more than one analyst within the Deutsche Bank group. Each of these analysts may use differing methodologiesto value the security; as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely.In August 2009, Deutsche Bank instituted a new po
129、licy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur forHold rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. We believe that such policy will a
130、llow us to make best use of our resources. Please visit our website athttp:/ to determine the target price of any stock.The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Stock transactions can lea
131、d to losses as a result of pricefluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is notnecessarily indicative of future results. Deutsche Bank may
132、with respect to securities covered by this report, sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on aproprietary basis.Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investors ho
133、me jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by DeutscheBank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In Germany this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt authorized by the BaFin. In the United Kingdom thisreport is app
134、roved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UKand authorized by the BaFin. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in
135、 Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. This report is distributed in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG,Singapore Branch, and recipients in Singapore of this report are to contact Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this re
136、port is issued orpromulgated in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branchaccepts legal responsibility to such person for the contents of this rep
137、ort. In Japan this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc. The information contained in this report does not constitute theprovision of investment advice. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial pro
138、duct referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making anydecision about whether to acquire the product. Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Additional informationrelative to securities
139、, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without DeutscheBanks prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting.Copyright 2012 Deutsche Bank AGGRCM2012PROD027257
