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1、INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSCopyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCHAPTER 17Macroeconomic and Industry AnalysisINVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSA firms value comes from its earnings prospects, which are determined by:The global economic environme
2、ntEconomic factors affecting the firms industry The position of the firm within its industryFundamental Analysis2INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSStock markets around the world responded in unison to the financial crisis of 2008.Performance in countries and regions can be highly variable.It is harde
3、r for businesses to succeed in a contracting economy than in an expanding one.The Global Economy3INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSPolitical risk:The global environment may present much greater risks than normally found in U.S.-based investments.Exchange rate risk:Changes the prices of imports and ex
4、ports.The Global Economy4INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSTable 17.1 Economic Performance5INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSThe Domestic MacroeconomyStock prices rise with earnings.P/E ratios are normally in the range of 12-25.The first step in forecasting the performance of the broad market is to as
5、sess the status of the economy as a whole.6INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17.2 S&P 500 Index versus Earnings Per Share 7INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSGross domestic productUnemployment ratesInflationInterest ratesBudget deficitConsumer sentimentThe Domestic Macroeconomy:Key Variables8INV
6、ESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSDemand and Supply ShocksDemand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economySupply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs9INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSDemand-side PolicyFiscal policy the governments spen
7、ding and taxing actionsMonetary policy manipulation of the money supply10INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFiscal PolicyMost direct way to stimulate or slow the economyFormulation of fiscal policy is often a slow, cumbersome political process11INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFiscal PolicyTo summariz
8、e the net effect of fiscal policy, look at the budget surplus or deficit.Deficit stimulates the economy because: it increases the demand for goods (via spending) by more than it reduces the demand for goods (via taxes)12INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSMonetary PolicyManipulation of the money supply
9、 to influence economic activity.Increasing the money supply lowers interest rates and stimulates the economy.Less immediate effect than fiscal policyTools of monetary policy include open market operations, discount rate, reserve requirements.13INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSSupply-Side PoliciesGoa
10、l: To create an environment in which workers and owners of capital have the maximum incentive and ability to produce and develop goods.Supply-siders focus on how tax policy can be used to improve incentives to work and invest.14INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSBusiness CyclesThe transition points ac
11、ross cycles are called peaks and troughs.A peak is the transition from the end of an expansion to the start of a contraction. A trough occurs at the bottom of a recession just as the economy enters a recovery.15INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSThe Business CycleCyclical IndustriesAbove-average sensi
12、tivity to the state of the economy.Examples include producers of consumer durables (e.g. autos) and capital goods (i.e. goods used by other firms to produce their own products.)High betasDefensive IndustriesLittle sensitivity to the business cycleExamples include food producers and processors, pharm
13、aceutical firms, and public utilitiesLow betas16INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSLeading indicators tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy.Coincident indicators move with the market.Lagging indicators change subsequent to market movements.Economic Indicators17INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARC
14、USFigure 17.4 Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators18INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSTable 17.4 Useful Economic Indicators 19INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSEconomic CalendarMany sources, such as The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Finance, publish the public announcement dates of
15、various economic statistics. 20INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17.5 Economic Calendar at Yahoo!21INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSIndustry AnalysisIt is unusual for a firm in a troubled industry to perform well.Economic performance can vary widely across industries.22INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KAN
16、E, MARCUSFigure 17.6 Return on Equity, 2009 23INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17.7 Industry Stock Price Performance, 200924INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSDefining an IndustryNorth American Industry Classification System, or NAICS codesFirms with the same four-digit NAICS codes are commonly
17、 taken to be in the same industry.25INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSTable 17.5 Examples of NAICS Industry Codes 26INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSSensitivity to the Business Cycle1.Sensitivity of sales:Necessities vs. discretionary goodsItems that are not sensitive to income levels (such as tobacc
18、o and movies) vs. items that are, (such as machine tools, steel, autos)Three factors determine how sensitive a firms earnings are to the business cycle.27INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17.9 Industry Cyclicality 28INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSSensitivity to the Business CycleFirms with l
19、ow operating leverage (less fixed assets) are less sensitive to business conditions.Firms with high operating leverage (more fixed assets) are more sensitive to the business cycle.2.Operating leverage : the split between fixed and variable costs29INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSTable 17.6 Operating
20、 Leverage of Firms A and B Throughout the Business Cycle 30INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSSensitivity to the Business CycleInterest is a fixed cost that increases the sensitivity of profits to the business cycle.3.Financial leverage: the use of borrowing31INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17
21、.10 A Stylized Depiction of the Business Cycle32INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSSector RotationPortfolio is shifted into industries or sectors that should outperform, according to the stage of the business cycle.Peaks natural resource extraction firmsContraction defensive industries such as pharmac
22、euticals and food33INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSSector RotationTrough capital goods industriesExpansion cyclical industries such as consumer durables34INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17.11 Sector Rotation35INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSIndustry Life CyclesStageStart-upConsolidationMat
23、urityRelative DeclineSales GrowthRapid and increasingStableSlowingMinimal or negative36INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 17.12 The Industry Life Cycle37INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSWhich Life Cycle Stage is Most Attractive?Quote from Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street: Many people prefer
24、 to invest in a high-growth industry, where theres a lot of sound and fury. Not me. I prefer to invest in a low-growth industry. . . . 38INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSWhich Life Cycle Stage is Most Attractive?In a low-growth industry, especially one thats boring and upsets people such as funeral
25、homes or the oil-drum retrieval business, theres no problem with competition. You dont have to protect your flanks from potential rivals . . . and this gives you the leeway to continue to grow.”Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street39INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSIndustry Structure and Performance:Five Determinants of Competition1.Threat of entry2.Rivalry between existing competitors3.Pressure from substitute products4.Bargaining power of buyers5.Bargaining power of suppliers40
