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1、Chapter7MANAGERS AS DECISION MAKERS第7章 作为决策者的管理者工商管理专业 15011503017 王瑞平LEARNING OUTCOMES 7.1 Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process描述决策制定过程中的八个步骤7.2 Explain the four ways managers make decisions解释管理者制定决策的四种方法7.3 Classify decisions and decision-making condition划分决策和决策条件的类型7.4 Describe
2、 different decision-making styles and discuss how biases affect decision making描述不同的决策风格并讨论各种偏见如何影响决策7.5 Identify effective decision-making techniques识别有效的决策技巧7.1 The Decision-Making Process7.1 决策制定过程决策制定过程7.1 The Decision-Making ProcessDecision making is the essence of management.制定决策是管理的本质。制定决策是管理
3、的本质。 And all managers would like to make good decisions because theyre judged on the outcomes of those decisions. 所有的管理者都希望制定良好的决策,因为组织和外界是根据这些决策的结果来判所有的管理者都希望制定良好的决策,因为组织和外界是根据这些决策的结果来判断和评价他们的。断和评价他们的。you can see that decisions play an important role in what an organization has to do or is able to
4、do.你可以看到,你可以看到,决策对一个组织必须要做或能够做的事情发挥着重要作用。决策对一个组织必须要做或能够做的事情发挥着重要作用。Managers at all levels and in all areas of organizations make decisions.That is, they make choices. 管理者,无论在组织中的哪个级别和哪个领域,都会制定决策。管理者,无论在组织中的哪个级别和哪个领域,都会制定决策。也就是说,他们会作出选择。也就是说,他们会作出选择。Making decisions isnt something that just managers
5、do; all organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and the organization they work for.制定决策并不仅仅是管理者的事情;组织中的所有成员都会作出决策,制定决策并不仅仅是管理者的事情;组织中的所有成员都会作出决策,而这些决策而这些决策会影响到他们的工作和所在的组织。会影响到他们的工作和所在的组织。1.识别决策问题 2.确定决策标准 3.为决策标准分配权重 4.开发备择方案5.分析备择方案 6.选择被择方案 7.实施被择方案 8.评估决策的效果7.1.1 Step 1: Iden
6、tifying a Problem7.1.1 步骤1:确定一个问题Your team is dysfunctional, your customers are leaving, or your plans are no longer relevant.你的你的团队变得功能紊乱,团队变得功能紊乱,你的你的客户正在离你而去,客户正在离你而去,或者你的或者你的计划再也无法有计划再也无法有效实施。效实施。Every decision starts with a problem, a discrepancy between an existing and a desired condition. 每一项
7、决策都始于一个问题,每一项决策都始于一个问题,即现有状况和预期状况之间的不一致。即现有状况和预期状况之间的不一致。Managers also have to be cautious not to confuse problems with symptoms of the problem.管理者必须采取小心谨慎的态度,以免把问题与问题的症状相混淆。管理者必须采取小心谨慎的态度,以免把问题与问题的症状相混淆。Is a 5 percent drop in sales a problem?销售额下降销售额下降5个百分点是一个问题吗?个百分点是一个问题吗? Or are declining sales
8、merely a symptom of the real problem, such as poor-quality products, high prices, or bad advertising?或者说,不断下降的销售额是否只是某个问题(例如低劣的产品质量、高昂的价格或者或者说,不断下降的销售额是否只是某个问题(例如低劣的产品质量、高昂的价格或者糟糕的广告)的一种症状?糟糕的广告)的一种症状? Also, keep in mind that problem identification is subjective.此外,需要记住的是,此外,需要记住的是,问题的确认是主观的。问题的确认是主
9、观的。What one manager considers a problem might not be considered a problem by another manager. 某位管理者认为这是一个问题,而另一位管理者则可能认为这不是问题。某位管理者认为这是一个问题,而另一位管理者则可能认为这不是问题。In addition, a manager who resolves the wrong problem perfectly is likely to perform just as poorly as the manager who doesnt even recognize a
10、 problem and does nothing. 此外,如果二位管理者完美地解决了一个错误的问题,其效果可能完全等同于这位管理此外,如果二位管理者完美地解决了一个错误的问题,其效果可能完全等同于这位管理者没有发现问题并因此什么也没做。者没有发现问题并因此什么也没做。As you can see, effectively identifying problems is important, but not easy.你会发现,你会发现,有效地确定问题非常重要,但并不容易。有效地确定问题非常重要,但并不容易。7.1.2 Step 287.1.2 步骤28Step 2: Identifying
11、Decision Criteria:步骤步骤2:确定决策标准:确定决策标准Every decision maker has criteria guiding his or her decisions even if theyre not explicitly stated. 每位决策者都有一些标准来指导自己的决策,即便这些标准并没有明确阐述。每位决策者都有一些标准来指导自己的决策,即便这些标准并没有明确阐述。Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria:步骤步骤3:为各项标准分配权重:为各项标准分配权重.A simple way is to give t
12、he most important criterion a weight of 10 and then assign weights to the rest using that standard一种简单的方法是给予最重要的标准一种简单的方法是给予最重要的标准10分的权重,然后参照这个权重分数来为其他标准打分的权重,然后参照这个权重分数来为其他标准打分。分。Step 4: Developing Alternatives:步骤步骤4:形成各种备选方案:形成各种备选方案The fourth step in the decision-making process requires the decis
13、ion maker to list viable alternatives that could resolve the problem.In this step ,a decision maker need to be creative.决策制定过程的第决策制定过程的第4个步骤要求决策者列举出切实可行的被择方案。在这个步骤中决策个步骤要求决策者列举出切实可行的被择方案。在这个步骤中决策者需要发挥想象力。者需要发挥想象力。Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives:步骤步骤5:分析这些备选方案:分析这些备选方案Once alternatives have been ident
14、ified, a decision maker must evaluate each one. How? By using the criteria established in Step 2.一旦确定了所有的被择方案,决策者就必须对每一个被择方案进行评估。如何评估?通过使用在步一旦确定了所有的被择方案,决策者就必须对每一个被择方案进行评估。如何评估?通过使用在步骤骤2中确定的那些标准。中确定的那些标准。Step 6: Selecting an Alternative 步骤步骤6:选择一个方案:选择一个方案The fourth step in the decision-making proce
15、ss is choosing the best alternative or the one that generated the highest total in step 5.决策制定的第决策制定的第6个步骤是选择最佳的被择方案,或者是选择在第个步骤是选择最佳的被择方案,或者是选择在第5个步骤中获得最高分的那个被择方个步骤中获得最高分的那个被择方案案。Step 7: Implementing the Alternative 步骤步骤7:实施该方案:实施该方案In step 7 in the decision-making process ,you put the deciaion into
16、 action by conveying it to those affected and getting their commitment to it.在决策制定的第在决策制定的第7个步骤,你将这项方案传达给那些受影响的人并获得他们的认同,从而将该项措个步骤,你将这项方案传达给那些受影响的人并获得他们的认同,从而将该项措施付诸实践。施付诸实践。Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness 步骤步骤8:评估决策的效果:评估决策的效果The last step in decision-making process involves evaluating th
17、e outcome or result of the decision to see whether the problem was resolved。If the evaluation shows that the prooblem still exists, then the manager needs to assess what went wrong. Was the problem incorrectly defined? Were errors made when evaluating alternatives? Was the right alternative selected
18、 but poorly implemented?The answers might lead you to redo an earlier step or might even require starting the whole process over.决策制定过程的最后一个步骤是评估该项决策的后果或者结果以检查问题是否得决策制定过程的最后一个步骤是评估该项决策的后果或者结果以检查问题是否得到解决。如果评估表明该问题依然存在,那么管理者需要判断哪里出错了。问到解决。如果评估表明该问题依然存在,那么管理者需要判断哪里出错了。问题是不是没有被正确定义?在对各被择方案评估时是否出现了错误?选择的
19、正题是不是没有被正确定义?在对各被择方案评估时是否出现了错误?选择的正确方案是否有效实施?这些方案可能会指引你重新实施某个先前的步骤,或者确方案是否有效实施?这些方案可能会指引你重新实施某个先前的步骤,或者需要重新开始整个过程。需要重新开始整个过程。7.2 Managers Making Decisions7.2 管理者制定决策管理者制定决策 Decisions Managers May Make7.2.1 Making Decisions: Rationality7.2.1 制定决策:理性When Hewlett-Packard (HP) acquired Compaq, the compa
20、ny did no research on how customers viewed Compaq products until “months after then-CEO Carly Fiorina publicly announced the deal and privately warned her top management team that she didnt want to hear any dissent pertaining to the acquisition.”当惠普收购康柏时,惠普公司并没有调查顾客如何看待康柏产品,直到当惠普收购康柏时,惠普公司并没有调查顾客如何看
21、待康柏产品,直到“惠普公司时任首席执行官惠普公司时任首席执行官卡莉卡莉菲奥里纳(菲奥里纳(Carly Fiorina)公开宣布这项交易并且私下警告她的高管团队她不想听到任何公开宣布这项交易并且私下警告她的高管团队她不想听到任何关于这项兼并的异议关于这项兼并的异议”数月之后,该公司才启动这项调查。数月之后,该公司才启动这项调查。 By the time they discovered that customers perceived Compaq products as inferiorjust the opposite of what customers felt about HP produ
22、ctsit was too late. 等到他们发现消费者认为康柏产品存在缺陷时等到他们发现消费者认为康柏产品存在缺陷时这正好与消费者对惠普产品的看法相反这正好与消费者对惠普产品的看法相反为时为时已晚。已晚。 HPs performance suffered and Fiorina lost her job. 惠普公司的绩效受到严重影响,而菲奥里纳也丢掉了自己的工作。惠普公司的绩效受到严重影响,而菲奥里纳也丢掉了自己的工作。 ASSUMPTIONS OF RATIONALITY 理性假设理性假设 We assume that managers will use rational decisio
23、n making; that is, theyll make logical and consistent choices to maximize value.我们我们假设管理者会理性决策假设管理者会理性决策;也就是说,他们会作出;也就是说,他们会作出符合逻辑的、前后一致的选择以实现价值最符合逻辑的、前后一致的选择以实现价值最大化大化。A rational decision maker would be fully objective and logical.一位理性的决策者会是一位理性的决策者会是完全客观的、符合逻辑的。完全客观的、符合逻辑的。The problem faced would
24、be clear and unambiguous, and the decision maker would have a clear and specific goal and know all possible alternatives and consequences.所面临的所面临的问题是清晰明确的,问题是清晰明确的,而决策者具有一个而决策者具有一个清晰、具体的目标清晰、具体的目标,并且了解,并且了解所有可能的备选方所有可能的备选方案及其后果。案及其后果。Finally, making decisions rationally would consistently lead to se
25、lecting the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of achieving that goal.最后,理性地制定决策将会导致决策者始终如一地选择最后,理性地制定决策将会导致决策者始终如一地选择最有可能实现该目标最有可能实现该目标的那个备选方案。的那个备选方案。These assumptions apply to any decisionpersonal or managerial.这些假设适用于任何决策这些假设适用于任何决策无论是个人决策还是组织中的管理决策。无论是个人决策还是组织中的管理决策。However, for manageri
26、al decision making, we need to add one additional assumptiondecisions are made in the best interests of the organization.不过,对于管理决策,我们不过,对于管理决策,我们需要增加一个假设需要增加一个假设作出的决策要符合组织的最佳利作出的决策要符合组织的最佳利益益。These assumptions of rationality arent very realistic, but the next concept can help explain how most decisi
27、ons get made in organizations.这些理性假设并不是非常现实,但是接下来的这个概念可以帮助解释组织中的绝大这些理性假设并不是非常现实,但是接下来的这个概念可以帮助解释组织中的绝大多数决策是如何制定的。多数决策是如何制定的。7.2.2 Making Decisions: Bounded Rationality7.2.2 制定决策:有限理性Despite the unrealistic assumptions, managers are expected to be rational when making decisions.虽然上面的那些假设不太现实,但是人们仍然期望
28、管理者在制定决策时成为理性的决策者。虽然上面的那些假设不太现实,但是人们仍然期望管理者在制定决策时成为理性的决策者。 They understand that “good” decision makers are supposed to do certain things and exhibit good decision-making behaviors as they identify problems, consider alternatives, gather information, and act decisively but prudently. 管理者明白,管理者明白,“优秀的
29、优秀的”决策者在确定问题、考虑备选方案、收集信息以及果断但不决策者在确定问题、考虑备选方案、收集信息以及果断但不粗鲁地行事时,通常会做一些特定的事情并表现出良好的决策行为。粗鲁地行事时,通常会做一些特定的事情并表现出良好的决策行为。However, a more realistic approach to describing how managers make decisions is the concept of bounded rationality, which says that managers make decisions rationally, but are limited
30、(bounded) by their ability to process information. 不过,用来描述管理者如何制定决策的一种更现实的方法是有限理性(不过,用来描述管理者如何制定决策的一种更现实的方法是有限理性(bounded rationality)概念。)概念。有限理性指的是管理者会理性地制定决策,但是这种理性被有限理性指的是管理者会理性地制定决策,但是这种理性被他们处理信息的能力所限制(局限)他们处理信息的能力所限制(局限)。Because they cant possibly analyze all information on all alternatives, man
31、agers satisfice, rather than maximize.因为他们无法分析所有备选方案的所有信息,所以因为他们无法分析所有备选方案的所有信息,所以管理者通常是满足(管理者通常是满足(satisfice)某项标某项标准或要求,而不是做到最好准或要求,而不是做到最好。 That is, they accept solutions that are “good enough.” Theyre being rational within the limits (bounds) of their ability to process information. 也就是说,他们接受也就是说
32、,他们接受“足够好的足够好的”解决方案。他们在其处理信息的(有限)能力范围内解决方案。他们在其处理信息的(有限)能力范围内保持理性。保持理性。Suppose that youre a finance major and upon graduation you want a job, preferably as a personal financial planner, with a minimum salary of $35,000 and within a hundred miles of your hometown.假设你是一名金融专业的学生并临近毕业,你希望获得一份工作,最好是成为一名个
33、人假设你是一名金融专业的学生并临近毕业,你希望获得一份工作,最好是成为一名个人理财规划师,起薪不低于理财规划师,起薪不低于35 000美元,工作地点离你家不超过美元,工作地点离你家不超过100英里。英里。You accept a job offer as a business credit analystnot exactly a personal financial planner but still in the finance fieldat a bank 50 miles from home at a starting salary of $34,000.你接受了一家银行向你提供的企业
34、信用分析师职位你接受了一家银行向你提供的企业信用分析师职位虽然并不算是个人理财规划师,但仍然是在金融领域虽然并不算是个人理财规划师,但仍然是在金融领域而且,这家银行离你家而且,这家银行离你家只有只有50英里,为你提供英里,为你提供34 000美元的起薪。美元的起薪。If you had done a more comprehensive job search, you would have discovered a job in personal financial planning at a trust company only 25 miles from your hometown and
35、 starting at a salary of $38,000.如果你进行过一番更全面的工作搜寻,你也许已经在离你家如果你进行过一番更全面的工作搜寻,你也许已经在离你家25英里外的一家信托公司找英里外的一家信托公司找到一个起薪为到一个起薪为38 000美元的个人理财规划师职位。美元的个人理财规划师职位。 You werent a perfectly rational decision maker because you didnt maximize your decision by searching all possible alternatives and then choosing t
36、he best.你并不是一位完全理性的决策者,因为你并没有通过搜寻所有可能的备选方案你并不是一位完全理性的决策者,因为你并没有通过搜寻所有可能的备选方案并从中选择最佳方案来使你的决策最优化。并从中选择最佳方案来使你的决策最优化。 But because the first job offer was satisfactory (or “good enough”), you behaved in a bounded rationality manner by accepting it. 但是因为这家银行向但是因为这家银行向你提供的这份工作是令你满意的(或者是你提供的这份工作是令你满意的(或者是“
37、足够好的足够好的”),所以你接受了这份工作。),所以你接受了这份工作。你是在以一种有限理性的方式行事。你是在以一种有限理性的方式行事。Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality, so they satisfice.管理者制定的绝大多数决策并不符合完全理性假设,因此他们追求的是使决策满足特定的管理者制定的绝大多数决策并不符合完全理性假设,因此他们追求的是使决策满足特定的标准或要求。标准或要求。However, keep in mind that their decision
38、making is also likely influenced by the organizations culture, internal politics, power considerations, and by a phenomenon called escalation of commitment, which is an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. 不过,需要记住的是他们在制定决策时还有可能被所在组织的文化、内部政治、权力事项,不
39、过,需要记住的是他们在制定决策时还有可能被所在组织的文化、内部政治、权力事项,以及一种被称为以及一种被称为承诺升级承诺升级的现象所影响。所谓的现象所影响。所谓承诺升级,指的是越来越认同以前的某承诺升级,指的是越来越认同以前的某项决策,即便证据显示该项决策可能是错误的项决策,即便证据显示该项决策可能是错误的。The Challenger space shuttle disaster is often used as an example of escalation of commitment. Decision makers chose to launch the shuttle that da
40、y even though the decision was questioned by several individuals who believed that it was a bad one. 例如,例如,“挑战者号挑战者号”航天飞机灾难事件常常被当做承诺升级的一个例子。当时,发射航天飞机的决定航天飞机灾难事件常常被当做承诺升级的一个例子。当时,发射航天飞机的决定受到好几个人的质疑,他们认为这是一项错误的决定,但决策者仍然选择发射。受到好几个人的质疑,他们认为这是一项错误的决定,但决策者仍然选择发射。7.2.3 Making Decisions: The Role of Intuiti
41、on7.2.3 制定决策:直觉的作用What is intuitive decision making? Its making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.什么是什么是直觉决策直觉决策?它指的是凭借经验、感觉和所积累的判断力来制定决策。?它指的是凭借经验、感觉和所积累的判断力来制定决策。 One survey found that almost half of the executives surveyed “used intuition more often than for
42、mal analysis to run their companies.” 一项调查发现,被调查的高管中有几乎一半一项调查发现,被调查的高管中有几乎一半“在经营他们的公司时使用直觉的在经营他们的公司时使用直觉的次数要多于使用正规分析的次数次数要多于使用正规分析的次数”。Intuitive decision making can complement both rational and bounded rational decision making.无论是理性决策还是有限理性决策,直觉决策都可以与之相辅相成。无论是理性决策还是有限理性决策,直觉决策都可以与之相辅相成。First of all,
43、 a manager who has had experience with a similar type of problem or situation often can act quickly with what appears to be limited information because of that past experience.首先,一个经历过类似问题或情况的管理者,往往可以凭借以往经验在获得的信息有首先,一个经历过类似问题或情况的管理者,往往可以凭借以往经验在获得的信息有限时就迅速行动。限时就迅速行动。 In addition, a recent study found
44、 that individuals who experienced intense feelings and emotions when making decisions actually achieved higher decision-making performance, especially when they understood their feelings as they were making decisions.此外,近期的一项研究发现,在决策时具有强烈感觉和情感的个体实际上实现了更高此外,近期的一项研究发现,在决策时具有强烈感觉和情感的个体实际上实现了更高水平的决策绩效,尤
45、其是当他们在制定决策时能够理解自己的感受时。水平的决策绩效,尤其是当他们在制定决策时能够理解自己的感受时。 The old belief that managers should ignore emotions when making decisions may not be the best advice. 认为管理者在制定决策时应该忽略各种情感的古老观点也许并不是最佳建议。认为管理者在制定决策时应该忽略各种情感的古老观点也许并不是最佳建议。基于价值观或基于价值观或道德的决策道德的决策基于经验的决基于经验的决策策潜意识的心理潜意识的心理过程过程直觉直觉基于认知的基于认知的决策决策影响发动的决
46、影响发动的决策策7.2.4 Making Decisions: The Role of Evidence-Based Management7.2.4 制定决策:循证管理的作用Thats the premise behind evidence-based management (EBMgt), which is the “systematic use of the best available evidence to improve management practice.” 这就是循证管理(这就是循证管理(EBMgt)的前提假设。)的前提假设。 所谓所谓循证管理,指的是循证管理,指的是“系统地
47、使用可获得的最佳系统地使用可获得的最佳证据来改进管理行为和实践证据来改进管理行为和实践”。Suppose you were exhibiting some strange, puzzling physical symptoms. In order to make the best decisions about proper diagnosis and treatment, wouldnt you want your doctor to base her decisions on the best available evidence?假设你正在呈现一些奇怪的、令人费解的体征。为了对合适的诊断
48、和治疗作出最佳决策,你是否希假设你正在呈现一些奇怪的、令人费解的体征。为了对合适的诊断和治疗作出最佳决策,你是否希望医生根据可获得的最佳证据来制定决策?望医生根据可获得的最佳证据来制定决策?The four essential elements of EBMgt are the decision makers expertise and judgment; external evidence thats been evaluated by the decision maker; opinions, preferences, and values of those who have a stak
49、e in the decision; and relevant organizational (internal) factors such as context, circumstances, and organizational members. 循证管理的四项基本要素是:决策者的专长和判断;决策者已经予以评估的外部循证管理的四项基本要素是:决策者的专长和判断;决策者已经予以评估的外部证据;该决策的利益相关者的意见、偏好和价值观;相关的组织(内部)因素,证据;该决策的利益相关者的意见、偏好和价值观;相关的组织(内部)因素,例如背景、情况和组织成员。例如背景、情况和组织成员。The stre
50、ngth or influence of each of these elements on a decision will vary with each decision.每一项要素对不同决策的影响是不同的。每一项要素对不同决策的影响是不同的。The key for managers is to recognize and understand the mindful, conscious choice as to which element(s) are most important and should be emphasized in making a decision.管理者需要明白
51、这一点:在制定一项决策时,清醒谨慎地决定管理者需要明白这一点:在制定一项决策时,清醒谨慎地决定什么要素是什么要素是最重要的并且应该加以强调。最重要的并且应该加以强调。7.3 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions7.3 决策的类型和决策制定条件决策的类型和决策制定条件7.3.1 Types of Decisions 7.3.1.1 STRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND PROGRAMMED DECISIONS 结构化问题和程序化决策结构化问题和程序化决策7.3.1.2 UNSTRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND NO
52、NPROGRAMMED DECISIONS 开放式问题和非程序化决策开放式问题和非程序化决策STRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND PROGRAMMED DECISIONS 结构化问题结构化问题和程序化决策和程序化决策Such situations are called structured problems because theyre straightforward, familiar, and easily defined.这样的情况称为结构化问题,因为它们是直截了当的、习以为常的和容易定义的。这样的情况称为结构化问题,因为它们是直截了当的、习以为常的和容易定义的。This is
53、 what we call a programmed decision, a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Because the problem is structured, the manager doesnt have to go to the trouble and expense of going through an involved decision process.这就是一项我们所称的程序化决策,即可以通过某种例行方法来作出的一项重复性决策。因为这就是一项我们所称的程序化决策,即可以
54、通过某种例行方法来作出的一项重复性决策。因为面临的问题是结构化的,所以管理者并不需要费心费力地完成整个决策制定过程。面临的问题是结构化的,所以管理者并不需要费心费力地完成整个决策制定过程。Instead, the manager relies on one of three types of programmed decisions: procedure, rule, or policy.实际上,餐馆经理只需依赖这三种类型的程序化决策中的一种:实际上,餐馆经理只需依赖这三种类型的程序化决策中的一种:程序;规定;政策。程序;规定;政策。1.Procedure 程序程序A procedure is
55、 a series of sequential steps a manager uses to respond to a structured problem.程序指的是管理者用来应对某个结构化问题的一系列连续步骤程序指的是管理者用来应对某个结构化问题的一系列连续步骤The only difficulty is identifying the problem. Once its clear, so is the procedure. 唯一的困难是确定面临的问题。一旦问题变得清楚明确唯一的困难是确定面临的问题。一旦问题变得清楚明确,相应的程序也就确定相应的程序也就确定下来下来2.Rule 规定规
56、定A rule is an explicit statement that tells a manager what can or cannot be done. 规定是告诉管理者能做什么或不能做什么的一项明确声明。规定是告诉管理者能做什么或不能做什么的一项明确声明。 3.Policy政策政策Policy is a guideline for making a decision. 政策即制定决策时的指导方针和原则。政策即制定决策时的指导方针和原则。Policies typically contain an ambiguous term that leaves interpretation up
57、 to the decision maker.政策通常会包含比较模糊的措辞,让决策者自己解读。政策通常会包含比较模糊的措辞,让决策者自己解读。The customer always comes first and should always be satisfied.We promote from within, whenever possible.Employee wages shall be competitive within community standards.顾客始终是第一位的,而且我们应当顾客始终是第一位的,而且我们应当始终满足顾客始终满足顾客。只要有可能,便实施内部晋升只要有
58、可能,便实施内部晋升。.与本社区与本社区的标准相比,的标准相比,员工的薪水应当具有竞争力员工的薪水应当具有竞争力。UNSTRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND NONPROGRAMMED DECISIONS 开放式问题和非程序化决策开放式问题和非程序化决策Many organizational situations involve unstructured problems, which are problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.在很多情况下,组织会面
59、临在很多情况下,组织会面临开放式问题,即崭新的、不同寻常的、相关信息很模糊或不完整的开放式问题,即崭新的、不同寻常的、相关信息很模糊或不完整的问题。问题。 Nonprogrammed decisions are unique and nonrecurring and involve custom-made solutions.非程序化决策是独特的、非重复发生的,并且涉及量身定制的解决方案。非程序化决策是独特的、非重复发生的,并且涉及量身定制的解决方案。Thus, few managerial decisions in the real world are either fully progra
60、mmed or nonprogrammed. Most fall somewhere in between.不过,在现实世界中,很少有管理决策是完全程序化的或完全非程序化的。绝大多数管理决策不过,在现实世界中,很少有管理决策是完全程序化的或完全非程序化的。绝大多数管理决策处于这两端之间的某个位置。处于这两端之间的某个位置。7.3.2 Decision-Making Conditions When making decisions, managers may face three different conditions: certainty, risk, and uncertainty.在制定
61、决策时,管理者可能面临三种不同的条件:在制定决策时,管理者可能面临三种不同的条件:确定性;风险;不确定性确定性;风险;不确定性。The ideal situation for making decisions is one of certainty,which is a situation where a manager can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known.制定决策时的理想情况是确定性。在这种情况下,管理者能够做出精确的决策,因为每一种备选方案的情况都是已知的。A far m
62、ore common situation is one of risk,conditions in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likehood of certain outcomes.更为普遍的情况是存在风险。在这种情况下,决策者能够估计某些特定结果的可能性。What happens if you face a decision where youre not certain about the outcomes and cant even make reasonable probability estimates? We
63、 call this condition uncertainty.当制定某项决策时,你无法肯定它可能带来的各种后果,甚至无法作出合理的可能性估计,这时候你该怎么办?我们把这种情况称为不确定性(uncertainty)。 7.4 Decision-Making Styles 7.4 决策风格决策风格7.4.1 LinearNonlinear Thinking Style Profile7.4.1 线性和非线性思维模式简介Recent research done with four distinct groups of people says that the way a person appro
64、aches decision making is likely affected by his or her thinking style.近期一项研究在对四种截然不同的人群进行考察之后指出,近期一项研究在对四种截然不同的人群进行考察之后指出,一个人采用的决策方法一个人采用的决策方法很可能受到自己思维方式的影响。很可能受到自己思维方式的影响。 Your thinking style reflects two things: (1) the source of information you tend to use (external data and facts OR internal sou
65、rces such as feelings and intuition), and (2) whether you process that information in a linear way (rational, logical, analytical) OR a nonlinear way (intuitive, creative, insightful).你的思维方式反映两件事情:你的思维方式反映两件事情:(1)你通常使用的信息来源(外部的数据和事实,或者是内在的你通常使用的信息来源(外部的数据和事实,或者是内在的来源,例如感觉和直觉);来源,例如感觉和直觉);(2)你是否会以某种线
66、性方法(理性的、逻辑的、分析的)或你是否会以某种线性方法(理性的、逻辑的、分析的)或者非线性方法(直觉的、创造性的、顿悟的)来处理这些信息。者非线性方法(直觉的、创造性的、顿悟的)来处理这些信息。 These four dimensions are collapsed into two styles.这四个维度可以组合成两种风格。这四个维度可以组合成两种风格。The first, linear thinking style, is characterized by a persons preference for using external data and facts and proces
67、sing this information through rational, logical thinking to guide decisions and actions.第一种风格是线性思维模式,其主要特征是偏好于使用外部的数据和事实以及通过第一种风格是线性思维模式,其主要特征是偏好于使用外部的数据和事实以及通过理性的、逻辑的思维来处理这些信息,以指导自己的决策和行为。理性的、逻辑的思维来处理这些信息,以指导自己的决策和行为。 The second, nonlinear thinking style, is characterized by a preference for intern
68、al sources of information (feelings and intuition) and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches to guide decisions and actions. 第二种风格是非线性思维模式,其主要特征是偏好于使用内在的信息来源(感觉和第二种风格是非线性思维模式,其主要特征是偏好于使用内在的信息来源(感觉和直觉)以及通过内在的洞察力、感觉和直觉来处理这些信息,以指导决策和行为。直觉)以及通过内在的洞察力、感觉和直觉来处理这些信息,以指导决
69、策和行为。 Managers need to recognize that their employees may use different decision-making styles.管理者需要意识到,他们的员工可能使用不同类型的决策风格。管理者需要意识到,他们的员工可能使用不同类型的决策风格。These differences dont make one persons approach better than the other.这些差异并不会使这两种方法高下立判。这些差异并不会使这两种方法高下立判。7.4.2 Decision-Making Biases and Errors7.4
70、.2 制定决策时的偏见和错误When managers make decisions, they not only use their own particular style, they may use “rules of thumb,” or heuristics, to simplify their decision making.Rules of thumb can be useful because they help make sense of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous information.当当管管理理者者制制定定决决策策时时,他他们们
71、不不仅仅具具有有自自己己特特定定的的风风格格,而而且且可可能能利利用用“经经验验法法则则”或或启启发发法法来简化决策制定过程。来简化决策制定过程。 经验法则是有用的,因为它们能够帮助决策者更好地理解复杂的、不确定的、模糊的信息。经验法则是有用的,因为它们能够帮助决策者更好地理解复杂的、不确定的、模糊的信息。 Even though managers may use rules of thumb, that doesnt mean those rules are reliable.Why? Because they may lead to errors and biases in process
72、ing and evaluating information. 虽然管理者可以使用经验法则,虽然管理者可以使用经验法则,但这并不意味着它们都是可靠的。但这并不意味着它们都是可靠的。 为什么?因为它们为什么?因为它们可能会导致决策者在处理和评估信息时产生错误和偏见。可能会导致决策者在处理和评估信息时产生错误和偏见。EXHIBIT 7-11Common Decision-Making Biases图表7-11制定决策时常见的错误和偏见 7.4.2 Decision-Making Biases and Errors When decision makers tend to think they kn
73、ow more than they do or hold unrealistically positive views of themselves and their performance, theyre exhibiting the overconfidence bias.当决策者时常当决策者时常高估自己的知识和能力高估自己的知识和能力,或者对自己以及自己的表现,或者对自己以及自己的表现持有一种不切实际的持有一种不切实际的正面看法时,正面看法时,他们就表现出他们就表现出自负偏见。自负偏见。The immediate gratification bias describes decision
74、 makers who tend to want immediate rewards and to avoid immediate costs. 即时满足偏见即时满足偏见描述的是决策者往往描述的是决策者往往追求即时回报和避免即时成本。追求即时回报和避免即时成本。For these individuals, decision choices that provide quick payoffs are more appealing than those with payoffs in the future.对于这些人来说,能够提供快速收益的决策选择比具有长远利益的选择更有吸引力。对于这些人来说,
75、能够提供快速收益的决策选择比具有长远利益的选择更有吸引力。 The anchoring effect describes how decision makers fixate on initial information as a starting point and then, once set, fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information. First impressions, ideas, prices, and estimates carry unwarranted weight relative to informatio
76、n received later.锚定效应偏见锚定效应偏见描述的是决策者描述的是决策者把最初获得的信息固定为起始点,把最初获得的信息固定为起始点,而这样做以后而这样做以后他们就不能作出充分调整以适应后来获得的信息。相对于后来获得的信息,他们就不能作出充分调整以适应后来获得的信息。相对于后来获得的信息,最初的印象、观点、价格和估计要承载更多的权重,而这可能毫无理由。最初的印象、观点、价格和估计要承载更多的权重,而这可能毫无理由。When decision makers selectively organize and interpret events based on their biased
77、perceptions, theyre using the selective perception bias.当决策者当决策者基于自己有偏见的认知选择性地组织和解读某些事件时,基于自己有偏见的认知选择性地组织和解读某些事件时,他们就正在他们就正在产生产生选择性认知偏见选择性认知偏见。Decision makers who seek out information that reaffirms their past choices and discount information that contradicts past judgments exhibit the confirmation
78、bias.当决策者当决策者努力寻找那些能够证实其以往选择的信息,并忽视那些与其以往判断相左的信努力寻找那些能够证实其以往选择的信息,并忽视那些与其以往判断相左的信息时,他们就表现出证实偏见。息时,他们就表现出证实偏见。 The framing bias is when decision makers select and highlight certain aspects of a situation while excluding others. By drawing attention to specific aspects of a situation and highlighting
79、them, while at the same time downplaying or omitting other aspects, they distort what they see and create incorrect reference points. 当决策者当决策者有重点地选择和强调某种情况的其中一些方面并且摒弃其他方面时,取景效应有重点地选择和强调某种情况的其中一些方面并且摒弃其他方面时,取景效应偏见偏见就会产生。通过特别关注某种情况的其中一些具体方面并且对它们予以强调和就会产生。通过特别关注某种情况的其中一些具体方面并且对它们予以强调和重视,同时却又轻视或忽视其他方面,决
80、策者扭曲了自己所看到的东西并创造了不重视,同时却又轻视或忽视其他方面,决策者扭曲了自己所看到的东西并创造了不正确的基准点。正确的基准点。When decision makers assess the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles other events or sets of events, thats the representation bias.当决策者根据某个事件与其他事件的相似程度来估计该事件发生的可能性时,就会产当决策者根据某个事件与其他事件的相似程度来估计该事件发生的可能性时,就会产生典型性偏见。
81、生典型性偏见。The randomness bias describes the actions of decision makers who try to create meaning out of random events.随机性偏见描述的是决策者竭力从随机事件中归纳出意义。随机性偏见描述的是决策者竭力从随机事件中归纳出意义。The sunk costs error occurs when decision makers forget that current choices cant correct the past.当决策者忘记(现在的选择并且不能纠正过去的决策)时,就会产生沉没成本
82、偏见。当决策者忘记(现在的选择并且不能纠正过去的决策)时,就会产生沉没成本偏见。Decision makers who are quick to take credit for their successes and to blame failure on outside factors are exhibiting the self-serving bias.当决策者把当决策者把成功的功劳迅速归于自己名下而把失败归咎于外部因素时成功的功劳迅速归于自己名下而把失败归咎于外部因素时,他们就表现出,他们就表现出自利偏见。自利偏见。 Finally, the hindsight bias is th
83、e tendency for decision makers to falsely believe that they would have accurately predicted the outcome of an event once that outcome is actually known. 最后,最后,后见偏见(事后聪明)后见偏见(事后聪明)指的是决策者的这种倾向,即指的是决策者的这种倾向,即盲目地认为一旦某个事件的结果已盲目地认为一旦某个事件的结果已知,自己原本可以准确地预测该事件的结果。知,自己原本可以准确地预测该事件的结果。Managers avoid the negati
84、ve effects of these decision errors and biases by being aware of them and then not using them!管理者该如何避免这些决策错误和偏见的负面影响?主要是通过管理者该如何避免这些决策错误和偏见的负面影响?主要是通过对它们保持警觉并且不使用它对它们保持警觉并且不使用它们。们。 7.4.3 Overview of Managerial Decision Making Their decision-making process is affected by four factors: the decision-ma
85、king approach, the type of problem, decision-making conditions, and their decision-making style.管理者的决策制定过程受到管理者的决策制定过程受到四种因素四种因素的影响:的影响:制定决策的方法;制定决策的方法;问题的类型;制定决策时的条件;决策者的决策风格。问题的类型;制定决策时的条件;决策者的决策风格。 In addition, certain decision-making errors and biases may impact the process.此外,此外,特定的决策错误和偏见会影响决策
86、制定过程。特定的决策错误和偏见会影响决策制定过程。 Each factor plays a role in determining how the manager makes a decision.在决定管理者如何制定一项决策时,在决定管理者如何制定一项决策时,每一种因素都会发挥作用。每一种因素都会发挥作用。 2012 Prentice Hall, Inc. 26 七月 2024问题和决策的类型结构化问题程序化决策开放式问题非程序化决策 制定决策的方法:理性有限理性直觉制定决策时的错误和偏见决策 选择最佳备选方案-追求最优-追求满意 实施 评估 决策者的风格线性思维模式非线性思维模式制定决策时
87、的条件确定性风险不确定性7.5 Effective Decision Making in Todays World7.5 当今世界中有效的决策方法当今世界中有效的决策方法1) Understand cultural differences. 理解文化差异理解文化差异 Managers everywhere want to make good decisions. However, is there only one “best” way worldwide to make decisions? Or does the “best way depend on the values, belief
88、s, attitudes, and behavioral patterns of the people involved?” 任何地方的管理者都希望制定好的决策。然而,在全世界范围内只有一种任何地方的管理者都希望制定好的决策。然而,在全世界范围内只有一种“最好的最好的”方方法来制定决策吗?或者说,法来制定决策吗?或者说,“最好的方法是否取决于相关人员所持的价值观、信念、最好的方法是否取决于相关人员所持的价值观、信念、态度以及行为模式?态度以及行为模式? 2) Know when its time to call it quits. 掌握掌握退出的时机退出的时机 When its evident
89、 that a decision isnt working, dont be afraid to pull the plug. 当明显地发现一项决策不起作用时,要果断地予以终止。当明显地发现一项决策不起作用时,要果断地予以终止。However, as we said earlier, many decision makers block or distort negative information because they dont want to believe that their decision was bad. They become so attached to a decisi
90、on that they refuse to recognize when its time to move on. In todays dynamic environment, this type of thinking simply wont work. 然而,如同我们先前说过的那样,然而,如同我们先前说过的那样,许多决策者拒绝或曲解负面信息,因为他们并不相信许多决策者拒绝或曲解负面信息,因为他们并不相信自己的决策是错误的自己的决策是错误的。他们对某项决策变得如此执迷不悟,以至于断然拒绝合适的退他们对某项决策变得如此执迷不悟,以至于断然拒绝合适的退出时机。在当今的动态环境中,这种类型的思维
91、没有用武之地。出时机。在当今的动态环境中,这种类型的思维没有用武之地。3) Use an effective decision-making process. 使用一种有效的决策制定过程使用一种有效的决策制定过程Experts say an effective decision-making process has these six characteristics: (1) It focuses on whats important; (2) Its logical and consistent; (3) It acknowledges both subjective and objecti
92、ve thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking; (4) It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma; (5) It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion; and (6) Its straightforward, reliable, easy to us
93、e, and flexible.”专家说一种有效的决策制定过程具有专家说一种有效的决策制定过程具有六种特征:六种特征:(1)聚焦于重要事项;聚焦于重要事项;(2)符符合逻辑并始终一致;合逻辑并始终一致;(3)承认主观思维和客观思维方式,并且融合分析型承认主观思维和客观思维方式,并且融合分析型思维和直觉思维;思维和直觉思维;(4)只要求获得摆脱特定困境所必需的信息和分析;只要求获得摆脱特定困境所必需的信息和分析;(5)鼓励并指导相关信息和意见的收集;鼓励并指导相关信息和意见的收集;(6)是可靠的、灵活的、直截了是可靠的、灵活的、直截了当的和简单易行的。当的和简单易行的。4) Build an o
94、rganization that can spot the unexpected and quickly adapt to the changed environment.创建一个能够辨别突发状况并且迅速适应新环境的组织创建一个能够辨别突发状况并且迅速适应新环境的组织。 This suggestion comes from Karl Weick, an organizational psychologist, who has made a career of studying organizations and how people work.这个建议来自一位组织心理学家卡尔这个建议来自一位组
95、织心理学家卡尔韦克,他对组织以及员工如何工作有过深入研究。韦克,他对组织以及员工如何工作有过深入研究。 He calls such organizations highly reliable organizations (HROs) and says they share five habits.他把这样的组织称为他把这样的组织称为高可靠性组织高可靠性组织,并且认为它们具有五个共同的习惯:,并且认为它们具有五个共同的习惯:(1)Theyre not tricked by their success. (1)它们不会被成功冲昏头脑它们不会被成功冲昏头脑。 HROs are preoccupied
96、 with their failures.高可靠性组织对失败未雨绸缪。高可靠性组织对失败未雨绸缪。 Theyre alert to the smallest deviations and react quickly to anything that doesnt fit with their expectations.它们对最小的偏差都保持警惕,而且迅速对任何与其期望不符的事物作出反应。它们对最小的偏差都保持警惕,而且迅速对任何与其期望不符的事物作出反应。(2) They defer to the experts on the front line. (2)它们听从一线专家的意见它们听从一线专
97、家的意见Frontline workersthose who interact day in and day out with customers, products, suppliers, and so forthhave firsthand knowledge of what can and cannot be done, what will and will not work.那些天天与顾客、产品、供应商等打交道的一线员工对什么能做、什么不能做、什么行之有效那些天天与顾客、产品、供应商等打交道的一线员工对什么能做、什么不能做、什么行之有效以及什么无济于事掌握第一手资料。以及什么无济于事掌
98、握第一手资料。 Get their input. Let them make decisions. 组织应该充分利用他们的价值,让他们来制定决策。组织应该充分利用他们的价值,让他们来制定决策。(3) They let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. (3)他们利用突发情况来提供解决办法他们利用突发情况来提供解决办法。One of Weicks better-known works is his study of the Mann Gulch fire in Montana that killed 13 smoke jumpers i
99、n 1949.卡尔卡尔韦克一项更有名的成果研究了韦克一项更有名的成果研究了1949年蒙大拿州的曼恩峡谷火灾。这次火灾使年蒙大拿州的曼恩峡谷火灾。这次火灾使13名空降的森林消防员丧生。名空降的森林消防员丧生。 The event was a massive, tragic organizational failure.这个事件是组织遭受的一次巨大的、悲剧性的失败。这个事件是组织遭受的一次巨大的、悲剧性的失败。However, the reaction of the foreman illustrates how effective decision makers respond to unexp
100、ected circumstances.然而,救火负责人的反应生动地展示了决策者如何有效应对突发事件。然而,救火负责人的反应生动地展示了决策者如何有效应对突发事件。(4) They embrace complexity. (4)他们欣然接受复杂性他们欣然接受复杂性。Because business is complex, these organizations recognize that it “takes complexity to sense complexity.”因为商界是非常复杂的,所以这些组织意识到,应该因为商界是非常复杂的,所以这些组织意识到,应该“用复杂性来更好地理解复杂用复
101、杂性来更好地理解复杂性性”。 Rather than simplifying data, which we instinctively try to do when faced with complexity, these organizations aim for deeper understanding of the situation.不是把数据简化(当面临复杂性时,我们本能地会这样去做),这些组织反而追求不是把数据简化(当面临复杂性时,我们本能地会这样去做),这些组织反而追求更深入地理解它们所面临的情况。更深入地理解它们所面临的情况。 They ask “why” and keep a
102、sking why as they probe more deeply into the causes of the problem and possible. 当它们更深入地探索问题的根源和可能的解决方案时,它们会打破沙锅问到底,持当它们更深入地探索问题的根源和可能的解决方案时,它们会打破沙锅问到底,持续不断地追问续不断地追问“为什么为什么”。(5) Finally, they anticipate, but also recognize their limits. (5)他们会进行预测,但是也清醒地认识到自己的局限他们会进行预测,但是也清醒地认识到自己的局限。 These organiza
103、tions do try to anticipate as much as possible, but they recognize that they cant anticipate everything.这些组织确实会这些组织确实会尽力进行预测尽力进行预测,但是他们明白自己无法预测每一件事情。,但是他们明白自己无法预测每一件事情。 Making decisions in todays fast-moving world isnt easy. Successful managers need good decision-making skills to plan, organize, lead, and control. 在当今快速变化的世界中制定决策并不是轻而易举的事情。成功的管理者需要具备在当今快速变化的世界中制定决策并不是轻而易举的事情。成功的管理者需要具备良好的决策技能来进行计划、组织、领导和控制。良好的决策技能来进行计划、组织、领导和控制。Thank you!