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1、 Food Security Issues in China: Challenges and StrategiesDr. Ke BingshengChina Agricultural University2021/6/162021/6/161 1OutlinePast development and current situationPast development and current situation Production growth 1978-2009Production growth 1978-2009 Trade Trade Major challengesMajor chal
2、lenges Rising demandRising demand Slow-down of production growth Slow-down of production growth Policy practice and future perspectivesPolicy practice and future perspectives 30 years reform and current policy 30 years reform and current policy Options for improvementsOptions for improvements2021/6/
3、162021/6/162 2Past development and current situation2021/6/162021/6/163 3Declined agricultural shares19802009GDP%3011Population %8153/68Employment%6941Export%203Import%154Food expenditure, urban%5737Food expenditure, rural%62412021/6/162021/6/164 4Development 1978-2009Grain production growth: 73%, o
4、r 1.8% on average per year Meat production: increased by over 7 timesFishery production: increased by over 8 timesFarmers income: 7% annually in real term. 2021/6/162021/6/165 5Grain production in China1978-2009, in million tons1978-2009, in million tons2021/6/162021/6/166 6Wheat production in China
5、, in million tonsin million tons2021/6/162021/6/167 7Paddy rice production in Chinain million tonsin million tons2021/6/162021/6/168 8Corn production in Chinain million tonsin million tons2021/6/162021/6/169 9Meat and milk production in Chinain million tonsin million tons2021/6/162021/6/161010Agricu
6、ltural and Food Trade in 2009Net importerHigh dependence: import of soybean: 42.55 million tons, implying 15% of total cropping areas would be needed if produced domestically in 2009. Of 75% of soybean demand is imported.Import of edible oils: 10.29 million tons2021/6/162021/6/161111Import in the fi
7、rst eight months in 2010Deficit of agri-and food trade：US$ 15.2 billion Soybean import: 35.53 million tons. Cotton: 2.17 million tonsEdible oils: 5.77 million tons2021/6/162021/6/161212Agricultural and food trade in Chinaincluding fishery, in billion US$2021/6/162021/6/161313Agricultural and food im
8、port in China%2021/6/162021/6/161414Agricultural and food export in China%2021/6/162021/6/161515Cereals Trade in Chinain million tons2021/6/162021/6/161616Soybean Trade in Chinain million tons2021/6/162021/6/161717Cotton Trade in China in million tons2021/6/162021/6/161818Edible oil trade in Chinain
9、 million tons2021/6/162021/6/161919Major challenges2021/6/162021/6/162020Challenges for balancing demand and supply (1)Continued demand: 90 million tons for 2005-2020, or 6 million tons per year: population growth: 47 million tpopulation growth: 47 million turbanization (increased urban share in urb
10、anization (increased urban share in population): 10 million tpopulation): 10 million tincome improvement: 10 million tincome improvement: 10 million tgrowth of other sectors (without biofuel): 23 growth of other sectors (without biofuel): 23 million t million t 2021/6/162021/6/162121Challenges for b
11、alancing demand and supply (2)Constraints in productionReduction of arable land due to urbanizationReduction of arable land due to urbanizationDegradation of land quality Degradation of land quality Shortage of irrigation waterShortage of irrigation waterRising production costs for labor and Rising
12、production costs for labor and material inputs: falling cropping indexmaterial inputs: falling cropping indexSlow-down in yield improvementsSlow-down in yield improvements2021/6/162021/6/162222Grain areas in China100 million Mu100 million Mu 2021/6/162021/6/162323Cropping areas by crop，亿亩，亿亩2021/6/1
13、62021/6/162424Grain yield in China, kg/mu2021/6/162021/6/162525Grain yield in China, kg/mu2021/6/162021/6/162626Grain yield increases, %GrainsPaddyCornWheat1988-1988-1991998 824 24 18 18 28 28 27 27 1998-1998-2002008 88 8 2 2 8 8 21 21 1988-1988-2002008 834 34 20 20 39 39 54 54 2021/6/162021/6/16272
14、7Grain Yields by Province, 20082021/6/162021/6/162828World Export, 100 million tons2021/6/162021/6/162929Policy practice and future perspectives 2021/6/162021/6/16303030 Years Reform 1978-2002: introduction of market system1978-2002: introduction of market system Collective production units replaced
15、 by individual Collective production units replaced by individual farmersfarmers Government purchasing and distribution replaced by Government purchasing and distribution replaced by market mechanismmarket mechanism Free migration of labor forces between rural-urbanFree migration of labor forces bet
16、ween rural-urban2002-present: support policy addressing market 2002-present: support policy addressing market failuresfailures Abolishment of agricultural tax, ending a history of Abolishment of agricultural tax, ending a history of 2600 years2600 years Direct subsidy to farmers: quality seed, grain
17、 farmers, Direct subsidy to farmers: quality seed, grain farmers, input subsidyinput subsidy Support price for paddy rice, wheat, cornSupport price for paddy rice, wheat, corn Increased inputs in agricultural service, rural Increased inputs in agricultural service, rural infrastructure, education, h
18、ealth care and social infrastructure, education, health care and social security security 2021/6/162021/6/163131Policies to promote production incentiveGrain area subsidySubsidy to mitigate effects from price hike of farm inputsGrain seed subsidySubsidy for purchase of farm machinesSubsidy to sows20
19、21/6/162021/6/163232Budget outlay for supporting Budget outlay for supporting agriculture and its shareagriculture and its share2021/6/162021/6/163333Policy to promote productivityStricter control on taking farmland for non-farm purposesIncreased public funding in:irrigation and other infrastructure
20、 irrigation and other infrastructure extensionextensionresearchresearchOther public service: information, food Other public service: information, food safety, dieses controlsafety, dieses control2021/6/162021/6/163434Policy to reduce demandEstablishment of new biofuel plants using grains as feedstoc
21、k is in fact prohibited since 2007.2021/6/162021/6/163535Trade policyIn practice: Much more freer than WTO commitments:Soybean import tax: 1% from 3%(WTO)Soybean import tax: 1% from 3%(WTO)Cotton: ca. 5% from 40% (WTO)Cotton: ca. 5% from 40% (WTO)Similar can happen to other key products when in shor
22、tage2021/6/162021/6/163636Future perspectivesImport of land-intensiveImport of land-intensive commodities (low yield commodities (low yield products: oilseeds, cotton, wheat) will further products: oilseeds, cotton, wheat) will further expand;expand;There will be no food crisis for China for the The
23、re will be no food crisis for China for the short and mid-termshort and mid-term. . Long termLong term food security depends on protection food security depends on protection and improvement of and improvement of farmland and yieldfarmland and yield improvement (for both crop and livestock). improve
24、ment (for both crop and livestock). Technological innovation and applicationTechnological innovation and application in both in both traditional and biotechnology areas will be the traditional and biotechnology areas will be the key. key. We have a crucial role in this! We have a crucial role in this! 2021/6/162021/6/163737Thank you！2021/6/162021/6/163838 结束语结束语若有不当之处，请指正，谢谢！若有不当之处，请指正，谢谢！
