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1、房地产价格专业分析做的很强大Stillwatersrundeep.流静水深流静水深,人静心深人静心深Wherethereislife,thereishope。有生命必有希望。有生命必有希望 Market Drivers The URBANIZATION processChina is undergoing a rapid and massive urbanization process which is expected to last for the next ten to fifteen years. As urban economies grow much faster than tho
2、se in rural areas more people are moving to the cities in search of better opportunities.(Figure 1)In 2003, there were 40 cities with morethan one million livers in China, this number increased to 122 in2013. The population in each of the first tier cities has now exceeded 10 million. By the end of
3、2013, the urbanization rate in China was 46.6% . Market DriversStrong owner occupancy demand vs.SPECULATIONPartly due to this urbanization process, there has been a tremendous increase in demand for housing in the past five years, which the construction industry has not been able to keep up with.(th
4、e below Figure 2 shows the situation)In order to address this situation, since the end of 2009, the gov has been increasing the land supply for affordable housing, and compelling developers to speed up the construction of housing by imposing heavy fines on land that is left idle. Market Drivers FIRS
5、T TIER versus second tier citiesGeographically,data shows that residential prices in the first tier cities have in general grown much faster than those in the second tier cities,partly due to speculative activity. Major metropolises often face bigger housing pressure than smaller cities because of a
6、 larger migratory population.As the economies in these cities grow faster,wealth is often channeled into real estate for the lack of alternative investment channels and the lack of market transparency. (Figure 3)Additionally, first tier cities tend to attract international investment buyers drawn by
7、 the possibility of rapid price growth, which adds to the overall demand for housing in these cities.A closer look at AFFORDABILITYIn the Figure 4 we have also illustrated the ratio of home price growth to GDP growth. The nearer the ratio to 1,the closer is the correlation between home price growth
8、and GDP growth. Also the flatter the line, the less volatile this correlation becomes. As we can see over the past decade, despite fears of a housing market meltdown, home prices in China have grown consistently below half the rate of the overall economy.PRICE9.1%-9.2%PRICE A closer look at AFFORDAB
9、ILITYTo further examine the growth in home prices in China we have constructed an affordability trend index. We measure affordability by indexing the ratio of household income growth to home price growth and comparing the two. For the purpose of this exercise we have not included interest rate level
10、s or mortgage payments.AFFORDABILITY IN SELECTED CITIESA city-level analysis of affordability in China further confirms our findings (Figure 5); homes in Chinas first and second tier cities are more affordable now than they were in 2003. The effect of rising home prices in 2013 is evident in Beijing
11、, Shanghai and Hangzhou,where affordability has worsened, particularly in Beijing. Affordability in these cities appears to have now plateaued. In the smaller second tier cities affordability continues to improve.1stAFFORDABILITY analysis of the worldFrom this measure we see that not only has Chinas
12、 affordability level improved over the last 10 years, but there is better affordability in China than in many of the more mature, developed economies such as the UK and the US (Figure 6). Moreover, in contrast with the more volatile relationships in almost all the other countries we surveyed, apart
13、from Australia, affordability in China has been improving steadily since the beginning of the decade on the back of rising income levels.INCREASERAPIDImpact on the COMMERCIAL market is LimitedIt should be pointed out that despite all the turmoil in the residential market we have not seen similar cha
14、racteristics emerging in the commercial markets. Office rents and prices in first tier cities have largely been influenced by demand and supply (Figure 7). This supply and demand mix is in turn coupled with the ups and downs of the economy. Given the large potential supply in these cities, the offic
15、e market is unlikely to see the sort of speculation seen in the residential market, which was partly driven by the lack of supply.THE INACTION of the GOVERNMENTAll land is owned by the government, and income from selling land forms a major part of its income. Real estate is one of the pillar industr
16、ies of the Chinese economy, contributing more than 16% to Chinas GDP in 2013. Land conveyance fees have become the most important revenue sources for local governments. In cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, income from land sales reached close to 30% of government income in 2013 (The Table b
17、elow shows the detailed ratio), while in smaller cities such as Hangzhou and Wuhan over half of their annual income comes from this source. Local government relies on land sales to generate revenues to fuel economic growth, to launch urban renewal projects, and to provide services.So how could the h
18、ousing price really go lower?ImpossibleOther FACTORS affect the housing priceIn an effort to put a brake on residential price rises nationwide, from January to April this year there were no less than 10 occasions when the central governmentannounced new rules or monetary measures aimed specifically
19、at the residential market.And here we list some government policies which made during 20082010.*Even though the housing price is unbelieveable high,there are still evidence shows that the price will keep rising.But at the same time,peoples affordability will improve gradually,which make the price less hard to accept.*Due to the lack of up-to-the-minute data source,we are sorry for using the data before 2010 mostly.*Still there are a lot of uncertainties with the real estate,here we just give our own opinions.*Thank you for listening.conclusionTHANKS FOR YOUR TIME.
