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1、Chapter 10International Trade and Economic Growth经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oThere is a great diversity among the developing countries in terms of their income per capita.oWhy are some countries so much poorer than others?nFor about 30 years after World War II trade policies in many developing countries were stro
2、ngly influenced by the belief that the key to economic development was creation of a strong manufacturing sector.pThe best way to create a strong manufacturing sector was by protecting domestic manufacturers from international competition.Introduction经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件IntroductionTable 1: Gross Domestic
3、Product Per Capita, 1999 (dollars)经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Definition & Types of Growth oDefinition of GrowthnIncreases in factor endowments nFactor-saving technological progressoTypes of GrowthnBalanced GrowthnBiased Growth:pImport Replacing (IR) GrowthpExport Expanding (EE) Growth nExample: China labor abunda
4、nt , Rice:labor-intensive, Steel:capital- intensive Export rice & Import steel经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件 The balanced growth both industries grow at the same rate.SteelRiceBalanced Growth经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件IR Growth “进口替代型增长”指的是进口替代行业的生产能力增长得比较快，从而使得国内生产增加，一部分原来进口的商品被国内的产品替代了。SteelRice经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oFrom World War II u
5、ntil the 1970s many developing countries attempted to accelerate their development by limiting imports of manufactured goods to foster a manufacturing sector serving the domestic market.oThe most important economic argument for protecting manufacturing industries is the infant industry argument.Impo
6、rt-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Import-Substituting IndustrializationoThe Infant Industry ArgumentnIt states that developing countries have a potential comparative advantage in manufacturing and they can realize that potential through an initial period of protection.nIt implies that it
7、 is a good idea to use tariffs or import quotas as temporary measures to get industrialization started.pExample: The U.S. and Germany had high tariff rates on manufacturing in the 19th century, while Japan had extensive import controls until the 1970s.经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Import-Substituting Industrializati
8、onoProblems with the Infant Industry ArgumentnIt is not always good to try to move today into the industries that will have a comparative advantage in the future.pExample: In the 1980s South Korea became an exporter of automobiles, whereas in the 1960s its capital and skilled labor were still very s
9、carce.nProtecting manufacturing does no good unless the protection itself helps make industry competitive.pExample: Pakistan and India have protected their heavy manufacturing sectors for decades and have recently begun to develop significant exports of light manufactures like textiles.经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件
10、oMarket Failure Justifications for Infant Industry ProtectionnTwo market failures are identified as reasons why infant industry protection may be a good idea:pImperfect capital markets justificationnIf a developing country does not have a set of financial institutions that would allow savings from t
11、raditional sectors (such as agriculture) to be used to finance investment in new sectors (such as manufacturing), then growth of new industries will be restricted.pAppropriability argumentnFirms in a new industry generate social benefits for which they are not compensated (e.g. start-up costs of ada
12、pting technology).Import-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oPromoting Manufacturing Through ProtectionnImport-substituting industrializationpThe strategy of encouraging domestic industry by limiting imports of manufactured goodsnMany less-developed countries have pursued this strategy.nHas
13、import-substituting industrialization promoted economic development?pMany economists are now harshly critical of the results of import substitution, arguing that it has fostered high-cost, inefficient production.Import-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件nWhy not encourage both import substit
14、ution and exports?pA tariff that reduces imports also necessarily reduces exports.pUntil the 1970s many developing countries were skeptical about the possibility of exporting manufactured goods.pIn many cases, import-substituting industrialization policies dovetailed naturally with existing politica
15、l biases.Import-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Table 2: Exports as a Percentage of National Income, 1999Import-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oResults of Favoring Manufacturing: Problems of Import-Substituting IndustrializationnMany countries that have pursued import substitu
16、tion have not shown any signs of catching up with the advanced countries.pExample: In India, after 20 years of economic plans between the early 1950s and the early 1970s, its per capita income was only a few percent higher than before.Import-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件nWhy didnt impo
17、rt-substituting industrialization work the way it was supposed to?pThe infant industry argument was not as universally valid as many people assumed.nImport-substituting industrialization generated:pHigh rates of effective protectionpInefficient scale of productionpHigher income inequality and unempl
18、oymentImport-Substituting Industrialization经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Import-Substituting IndustrializationTable 3: Effective Protection of Manufacturing in Some Developing Countries (percent)经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件EE Growth “出口扩张型增长”则指的是出口行业生产能力的增长超过其它行业，使得生产和出口都得到了进一步扩张。 SteelRice经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Export-Oriented Industrializ
19、ation: the East Asian MiracleoFrom the mid-1960s onward, exports of manufactured goods, primarily to advanced nations, was another possible path to industrialization for the developing countries.oHigh performance Asian economies (HPAEs)nA group of countries that achieved spectacular economic growth.
20、pIn some cases, they achieved economic growth of more than 10% per year.经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oThe Facts of Asian GrowthnThe World Banks definition of HPAEs contains three groups of countries, whose “miracle” began at different times :pJapan (after World War II)pThe four “tigers”: Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Ko
21、rea, and Singapore (in the 1960s)pMalaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and China (in the late 1970s and the 1980s)nThe HPAEs are very open to international tradepExample: In 1999, exports as a share of gross domestic product in the case of both Hong Kong and Singapore exceeded 100% of GDP (132 and 202 res
22、pectively).Export-Oriented Industrialization: the East Asian Miracle经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oTrade Policy in the HPAEsnSome economists argue that the “East Asian miracle” is the payoff to the relatively open trade regime.pThe data in Table 10-4 suggests that the HPAEs have been less protectionist than other le
23、ss developing countries, but they have by no means followed a policy of complete free trade.pLow rates of protection in the HPAEs helped them to grow, but they are only a partial explanation of the “miracle.”Export-Oriented Industrialization: the East Asian Miracle经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Table 4: Average Rates
24、 of Protection, 1985 (percent)Export-Oriented Industrialization: the East Asian Miracle经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oIndustrial Policy in the HPAEsnSeveral of the highly successful economies have pursued industrial policies (from tariffs to government support for research and development) that favor particular indu
25、stries over others.nMost economists have been skeptical about the importance of such policies because:pHPAEs have followed a wide variety of policies, but achieved similarly high growth rates.pThe actual impact on industrial structure may not have been large.pThere have been some notable failures of
26、 industrial policy.Export-Oriented Industrialization: the East Asian Miracle经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件oOther Factors in GrowthnTwo factors can explain the rapid growth in East Asia:pHigh saving ratespRapid improvement in public educationnThe East Asian experience refutes that:pIndustrialization and development m
27、ust be based on an inward-looking strategy of import substitution.pThe world market is rigged against new entrants, preventing poor countries from becoming rich.Export-Oriented Industrialization: the East Asian Miracle经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Small and Large CountryGeographical Economic 1.Small Country: its sha
28、re in world trade is too small to affect the international prices of the exported or imported goods 2.Large Country: its share in world trade is big enough to affect the international price of exports or imports经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件IR Growth in a Small Country1. Relative Price: no change2. Production: rice
29、reduce; steel increase3. Trade: Both reduce4. Welfare: Better offSteelIR GrowthRiceP1P2C1C2经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件EE Growth in a Small Country1. Relative Price: no change2. Production: rice increase; steel reduce 3. Trade: Both increase4. Welfare: Better offEE GrowthSteelRiceP1P2C1C2经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Summary(small
30、 country)oRybczyski Theorem(罗勃津斯基定理)： 在商品相对价格不变的情况下，某种生产要素的增长会使密集使用该要素的商品生产扩大，使密集使用其他要素的商品生产缩小。经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Case Study:“Dutch Disease”oWhen the Netherlands developed natural gas fields under the North Sea in 1970s, a lot resources of the country were attracted to this industry. So that the manufactu
31、ring sector suffered. Similar problems happened in Britain, Norway, Australia, and Mexico. This case is usually called”Dutch Disease” oReason:nresources were attracted to gas industry because of higher profitsnExport of natural resource appreciationforeign demand for traditional exports reduced . 经济
32、增长与国际贸易优秀课件IR Growth in a Large CountryoRelative price of steel dropoProduction: Steel increase Rice uncertainoTrade: UncertainoWelfare Better than small countrySteelRiceSmall country Large country A B C 经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件EE Growth in a Large CountryoRelative price of steel UpoProduction: Rice increase S
33、teel increaseoTrade: Export increase &import reduce oWelfare better than before-growth, but worse than small countrySteel Rice Small country Large country A B C 经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件A special case: Immiserizing Growth oDuring the 1950s,some analysts argued that: the export-biased growth by poor nations woul
34、d worsen their terms of trade so that they would be worse off than if they hadnt grown at all. This situation is known as “Immiserizing Growth”oExample ：Latin American countries in 30s经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件Economic ModelThree conditions:ostrong export-biased growth oLarge countryothe world demand for this product is inelastic.steelrice经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件SummaryoH-O model interpret the role of resource in trade:Country tend to export goods that are intensity in the factor with which they are abundantly supplied.oEconomic growth affect small countries and large countries differently. 经济增长与国际贸易优秀课件
