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1、word某某师X大学毕业论文初稿某某：高林专业：金融学班级：2010研导师：杨栋会2011年12月5日 / 中日农村金融对农村经济的比拟研究基于1990-2009年的时间序列分析摘要随着我国经济的持续高速开展，城乡二元结构的弊端日益凸显。如何促进农村经济更好更快地开展，成为我国现阶段坚持改革开放和建设和谐社会过程中的迫切问题。近几年来，党中央、国务院历来高度重视农村金融问题。经过多年的改革与开展，我国初步形成了多层次、广覆盖的农村金融体系，金融机构可持续开展能力不断增强，农村存贷款持续增加，金融服务已覆盖了绝大局部农村地区。但是，还存在着许多问题，如农村开展技术水平落后、与国外兴旺经济体之间的
2、差距较大。纵观目前大量对农村金融问题的研究，大都是关于农村金融开展促进农村经济增长的作用机制或者农村金融开展现状的统计描述和实证分析，主要分成两种研究方向：一农村金融变量与农村经济增长的简单的静态的回归分析研究；二是金融相关率和农村金融变量与农村经济增长的动态时间序列研究。本文在前人研究的根底之上，以第二种模式进展研究。首先运用层次分析方法，尝试着从农村金融开展规模、结构、效率三个维度建立一个衡量农村金融开展的指标体系来对农村金融开展水平进展一个全新地衡量。其次，运用ADF单位根检验，检验各变量的平稳性，同时对于不平稳的单位根进展差分，直至平稳；然后用格兰杰因果关系检验对中日两国农村金融相关变
3、量与经济增长之间的关系进展分析研究，研究发现：在我国农村经济开展与农村金融各变量存在因果关系，在日本农村经济开展和农村金融各变量存在因果关系。再次，对农村金融变量和农村经济增长进展协整研究，推导出不存在“伪回归和可信的误差修正模型。最后，根据所得到的实证结果，对中日两国进展总结性比照分析，并提出相应的意见和建议：一、发挥财政、信贷资金相互协调配套作用；二、加快建立多层次、多样化、适度竞争的农村金融服务体系；三发挥地方政府在促进农村金融开展中的积极作用；四、积极推进农村信贷产品和服务方式创新；五、深化农村利率改革等关键词：农村金融，农村经济，实证分析，比照分析AbstractWith the s
4、ustained and rapid development of the economy in our country, the disadvantages of urban and rural structure increasingly prominent. How to promote the rural economy better and faster development, bee our country present stage persist in reform and opening up and in the process of building a harmoni
5、ous society urgent problems. In recent years, the party central mittee and the state council has always pay more attention to the rural financial problems. Through years of reform and development, China initially formed a multi-level and universal coverage of the rural financial system, financial in
6、stitutions and increased the capacity of sustainable development, and the rural continues to increase interest, financial services has covered most of the rural areas. However, there are many problems, such as rural development technology level with foreign advanced economies behind, the gap between
7、 the larger. In a large number of rural financial problems at present research, mostly about the rural financial development promoting the rural economic growth The mechanism of action of the status quo of the development of the rural financial or statistical description and empirical analysis, and
8、divided into two main research direction: a rural financial variables and rural economic growth simple static regression analysis research; 2 it is related to finance rate and the rural financial variables and rural economic growth dynamic time sequence of research. In this paper on the basis of the
9、 previous studies, to the second mode for research. The first use of hierarchical analysis method, try from rural financial development scale, structure, efficiency three dimensions to establish a measure of rural financial development index system to the rural financial development level in a new m
10、easure. Secondly, the use of ADF unit root test, test variables and steadiness, at the same time for not smooth unit root for difference, until smooth; Then use granger causality test between the two countries on the rural financial related variables and the relationship between the economic growth
11、is studied and analyzed, and the research found that: in the rural economy development and the rural financial variables are the causal relationship, in Japans rural economic development and the rural financial variables are the causality. Again, the rural financial variables and rural economic grow
12、th cointegration research is deduced, does not exist false return and reliable sources of error correction model. Finally, according to the empirical results obtained, between the two countries to phase contrast analysis, and put forward the corresponding opinions and Suggestions: a play, finance, c
13、redit funds coordination supporting role; Second, to speed up the establishment of multi-level, diversified, and moderate petition of rural financial service system; Three local government in promoting rural play the positive role of financial development; Fourth, actively promote the rural credit p
14、roducts and service mode innovation; Five, deepening the interest rate reform Keywords: rural finance, the rural economy, the empirical analysis, parative analysis 目录第一章引言1选题背景和研究意义1研究思路和方法2研究思路2研究方法3研究内容和结构安排3创新点与可能存在的不足3第二章文献综述4国内外金融开展与经济增长研究现状4国外研究现状52.1.2国内研究现状5中日农村金融理论研究现状6日本农村金融研究现状6中国农村金融研究现状
15、6第三章中国农村金融开展根本情况7当前中国农村金融开展的主要成就7中国农村金融体系的主要问题9第四章理论模型和指标体系的构建与数据的选取11理论架构11哈罗德多马模型中的农村金融过程11拉姆塞模型中的农村金融过程12模型中的农村金融过程14农村金融作用于农村经济的传导机理15指标体系的构建15指标体系构建的原如此15指标的选取17中国统计指标的选取17日本统计指标的选取18数据的选取20模型的构建21第五章农村金融深化与农村经济增长的实证分析21实证分析方法21单位根检验21协整检验22因果检验23中日两国实证分析结果24中国实证分析结果24日本实证分析结果29第六章中日两国实证分析总结31模型下的中国农村金融31模型下的日本农村金融34第七章中国农村金融开展的构想35参考文献38致谢41中日农村金融对农村经济的实证研究基于2000-2009年的时间序列分析第一章引言我国是世界上最大的开展中国家，有13亿人口，其中8亿左右生活在农村地区。农民、农业和农村开展问题是我国政府最关系的问题。建立健全农村金融服务体系，对于推动农村经济开展，保持农村长期稳定，缩小城乡贫富差
