ICCT+2022-2035年美国轻型电动汽车成本和消费者利益评估-47正式版

OCTOBER 2022WHITE PAPERASSESSMENT OF LIGHT-DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLE COSTS AND CONSUMER BENEFITS IN THE UNITED STATES IN THE 20222035 TIME FRAMEPeter Slowik,Aaron Isenstadt,Logan Pierce,Stephanie SearleB E I J I N G|B E R L I N|SA N F R A N C I S CO|SO PAU LO|WAS H I N GTO Nwww.theicct.orgcommunicationstheicct.org twitter theicctACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work is conducted with generous support from the Aspen Global Change Institute,the Heising-Simons Foundation,and the Energy Foundation.Critical reviews on an earlier version of this report were provided by Georg Bieker,Tom Cackette,Dave Cooke,Hongyang Cui,Ashok Deo,Chet France,John German,Chris Harto,Kathy Harris,Joe Mendelson,Dan Meszler,Peter Mock,Simon Mui,Eamonn Mulholland,Margo Oge,Spender Reeder,Gary Rogers,and Zifei Yang.Their review does not imply an endorsement,and any errors are the authors own.Edited by Amy SmorodinInternational Council on Clean Transportation 1500 K Street NW,Suite 650Washington,DC 20005communicationstheicct.org|www.theicct.org|TheICCT 2022 International Council on Clean TransportationiICCT WHITE PAPER|LIGHT-DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLE COSTS AND CONSUMER BENEFITS IN THE UNITED STATESEXECUTIVE SUMMARYAs global electric vehicle production volumes proliferate,their costs decline and the prospects of a transition to electric vehicles increase.Governments around the world are working to accelerate the transition to zero emission transportation to meet air quality,climate,energy security,and industrial development goals.The United States is looking to reverse its laggard position by promoting electric vehicles with actions in the supply chain,regulations on automakers,incentives for consumers,and support to deploy charging infrastructure.Improvements in battery and electric vehicle technology lead to research questions about how quickly electric vehicle costs will decline and reach price parity with conventional vehicles,and also about the magnitude of the associated fuel-saving benefits.This paper analyzes bottom-up vehicle component-level costs to assess battery electric,plug-in hybrid electric,and conventional vehicle prices across the major classes of the U.S.light-duty vehicle market through 2035.We apply these cost estimates to evaluate vehicle costs and their broader consumer benefits and discuss the implications for vehicle emission regulations in the United States.Figure ES1 summarizes the findings for average conventional gasoline and electric vehicle prices through 2035 for U.S.cars,crossovers,SUVs,and pickups,which represent all light-duty vehicle sales in the United States.Conventional vehicles in these classes are compared with battery electric vehicles(BEVs)with electric ranges from 150 to 400 miles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs)with ranges of 20 to 70 miles.Battery electric vehicles have upfront prices that are about$3,000 to$25,000 greater than their gasoline counterparts in 2022.With declining electric vehicle battery and assembly costs,shorter-range BEVs of 150 to 200 miles are projected to reach price parity by 20242026,followed by mid-range BEVs with 250 to 300 miles around 20262029,and the longest-range BEVs with 350 to 400 miles around 20292032.PHEV prices decline at a relatively slower rate due to their relatively smaller battery packs and the additional combustion powertrains;no PHEVs in any class reach price parity with conventional vehicles over the time frame of this analysis.iiICCT WHITE PAPER|LIGHT-DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLE COSTS AND CONSUMER BENEFITS IN THE UNITED STATES$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,00020222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035Vehicle priceConventionalBEV150PHEV20BEV200PHEV30BEV250PHEV40BEV300PHEV50BEV350PHEV60BEV400PHEV70ConventionalBEV150PHEV20BEV200PHEV30BEV250PHEV40BEV300PHEV50BEV350PHEV60BEV400PHEV70ConventionalBEV150PHEV20BEV200PHEV30BEV250PHEV40BEV300PHEV50BEV350PHEV60BEV400PHEV70ConventionalBEV150PHEV20BEV200PHEV30BEV250PHEV40BEV300PHEV50BEV350PHEV60BEV400PHEV70Car$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000Vehicle priceCrossover$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000$55,000$60,000$65,000$70,000Vehicle priceSport utility vehicle$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000$55,000$60,000$65,000$70,000Vehicle pricePickupFigure ES1.Conventional,battery electric,and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle prices of cars,crossovers,sport utility vehicles,and pickups in the United States for 20222035.iiiICCT WHITE PAPER|LIGHT-DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLE COSTS AND CONSUMER BENEFITS IN THE UNITED STATESTable ES1 summarizes the year by which battery electric vehicles reach price parity with conventional vehicles,based on the same data presented in Figure ES1.As shown,for a given electric vehicle range,the expected timing for price parity is similar for cars,crossovers,and SUVs.Price parity for pickup trucks is about one year delayed for BEVs wi