《2010—2011学年度第二学期高一调研考试》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2010—2011学年度第二学期高一调研考试（43页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Our Energy Future Focus The Nation Jan. 31, 2008 U. C. Irvine,Dennis Silverman Physics and Astronomy U. C. Irvine www.physics.uci.edu/silverma/,Introduction,The Future of Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuel Plant Improvements and Sequestration Greenhouse Gas Free Sources Solar Wind Nuclear Automotive Plans Con
2、servation Conclusions,Long Term Oil Projections,Oil Reserves are uncertain by a factor of two, between one and two trillion barrels. Higher price favors more recovery, and substitutes as tar sands, and syngas from coal. Plateau likely as infrastructure costly,US Natural Gas Could Decline by 2020, or
3、 Could Find New Fields,Natural gas produces 20% of US electricity Imports to rise to 6 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by 2030, out of a total now of 22 Tcf. Canadian natural gas is delivered by pipeline. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) to be by tankers with giant pressurized spherical tanks. Need port factor
4、ies, tankers and sources.,Natural Gas Efficiency Increases,Natural gas provides 20% of US electricity. Conservation Maxim: A kilowatt hour saved is three kilowatts of fossil fuel that is not burned. “Clean” natural gas plants with steam turbines only operate at 34% efficiency. This can be increased
5、to 50% with new combined cycle gas turbine followed by steam turbine. With cogeneration of water heating where possible (CHP, combined heat and power), can increase efficiency up to 89%. ConEd feeds steam to 100,000 buildings in New York Also can do in small distributed power units US natural gas co
6、uld be gone in a decade with future reliance on imports including Liquid Natural Gas terminals on both coasts. Natural gas, CH4 , burns both carbon and hydrogen.,Coal Availability,Coal provides 50% of US electricity. Coal burns at 34% efficiency, but generates about twice the CO2 as a natural gas pl
7、ant, since it only burns carbon. Can increase efficiency to 50% by a gasification process before combustion. Can increase efficiency to 80% by cogeneration with using excess heat for water heating. We may have 250 year of coal available in the US An average coal plant lasts 76 years. Even though we
8、may have 250 year of coal remaining, the price may rise as get to less clean coal and harder to mine coal deposits. US National Academy of Sciences has called for a new assessment of coal resources which are subject to modern assessment, mining and safety practices.,CO2 Sequestration,Sequestration w
9、ould require burning of 50% more coal for the same power, yet the extra CO2 would also be sequestered. The cost of the 275 megawatt coal gasification pilot sequestration plant Futuregen has risen from $1billion to $1.5 billion, and is now sited in Illinois. The cost rise was from increases in the pr
10、ice of steel, cement, and turbines. Four of these would be needed to equal a 1.1 gigawatt (billion watt) power plant, which would then cost $6 billion. The administration has converted Futuregen up to four plants, and will pay for the carbon sequestration part, with industry paying for the power par
11、t. The Electric Power Research Institute projects that by 2030, sequestration plants will cost more than nuclear or natural gas plants. But present power plant not located over fields or domes where the CO2 would go. Need pipelines, or new plants with further transmission lines. Also need more trans
12、portation in railroads, ships, and transmission lines. However, a present coal plant coupled to generate electricity for an electric plug-in hybrid, can give the hybrid a fuel equivalent of 67 mpg.,Solar Power,Rooftop Silicon Based Solar Photovoltaic (PV) is a factor of 10 times more costly than eve
13、n nuclear power. Solar concentrator PV cost half of panels. Solar thermal concentrator 1/3 to of solar PV panels and can carry energy into the night. Solar Power is for daytime, missing the 4pm peak power needs. 30% efficiency loss if not tracking the sun. Year round average is only 1/5 of maximum c
14、apability paid for. Need to clean off dirt from cells. Need a south facing roof. Not very applicable to Northern or Eastern US. Already opposition to new power lines to the desert. PG&E with Ausra to build a 1 gigawatt solar water plant with heat storage for $3 billion. It can produce power for up t
15、o 20 hours a day. It takes about 4 square miles of solar cells at 10% efficiency to generate a gigawatt (a billion Watts) of power at maximum exposure. Since California electricity use peaks at 50 gigawatts it would take 200 square miles of photocells at peak sunlight. To generate an average of a gi
16、gawatt, assuming storage, takes 20 square miles. Best buy: rooftop solar water heating now, at $5,000 per home, then subtract rebates of $2500. Heating is free once installed and paid for. 38% of SC Edison power is already greenhouse gas free. There is a shortage of silicon now, which probably also contributes to a high price.,Thin Film Solar Panel Breakthroughs,The Nanosolar company in silicon valley has announced they are about to manufacture thin film solar panels that are printed o
