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1、bowling with a crystal ball,Yoram Solomon Association for Strategic Planning 2008 National Conference,what is the problem today?,Short-term focus of companies Innovation is risky Innovation is hard The role of people is understated The probability of success is low Limited strategists accountability
2、,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From
3、market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,three phases of innovation,Predicting technology (and other) trends,Identifying opportunities p
4、roducts, technologies,Navigating them through the industry maze,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist
5、 accountability,future trends,Local Forces Competitors Customers Suppliers / Partners Corporate Global forces Politics Economy Society Nature Technology,disruptive technologies,technology disrupts a new market,technology disrupts multiple markets,visionary technological trend prediction,April 19, 19
6、65, in Volume 38 of “Electronics” magazine Title: “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits” Author: Director of the R&D Labs, Fairchild semiconductors Sub-title: “with unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000
7、 components on a single silicon chip” The author was Dr. Gordon E. Moore. Only 7 years earlier, Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments invented the Integrated Circuit (won Noble prize in Physics in 2000 for that invention) Today, a 90nm, 5x5mm IC holds over 3 million logical gates,moores law,semiconductor
8、process trends,Source: ITRS,hard disk drive density trends,storage cost trends,processing power trends,DSP processing trends,DSP power consumption trends,communication speed trends,digital camera resolution trends,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Mo
9、ores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,why isnt Moores law leveling off?,Time,Technology parameter,Barrier 2,Barrier 1,Actual products,Products if barrier not crossed,Trend
10、line,The trend line is a psychological line. Researchers are addressing challenges and barriers to stay on a consistent trend line,industry cooperation,Time,Technology parameter,4 years,8-15 years,“Pre-competition” Cooperation,Competition Phase,Qualified Process,Address barriers that affect everyone
11、,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,implications of technology trends,It takes 7 ye
12、ars to deliver a product to market What will technology deliver in 2014? Digital camera resolution: 8.5MP (30MP) Semiconductor process: 65nm (32nm) Hard Disk Drive price: 40/GB (0.5/GB, $100=20,000GB) Flash memory price: $5/GB (42/GB, $10=24GB) DSP processing power: 10,000 MMACS (124,000 MMACS) Cost
13、 of processing HDTV: $81 ($5.2) Power of processing HDTV: 0.7W (31mW),How thick is a piece of printer paper if folded 50 times?,If car engines evolved as fast as semiconductorsa 1600cc car would have 23,000 BHP in 2005,Predicting technology trends accurately is a critical asset,If as fast as hard di
14、sk drive density3 million BHP,prediction using two points,1995 540MB,2004 160GB,prediction error,technology sweet spot,memory capacity vs. price,technology performance parameters,number of components per IC,the time horizon: shoot in front of the duck,Value,Time,You are here,2006,2002,1998,1994,1990
15、,2010,2014,Target market timing,Shoot in front of the duck,20-year trend line,10-year trend line,2-3 years,The target,Introduction,4 years Develop,implications of technology trends,Problem: the technology history is not too long Problem: the trends are very aggressive and curves are steep Question:
16、will those trends continue? Question: when will “Moores law” level off? Question: why do I need 2.9 Terabytes of disk space? Question: do we have a request from a customer? Those are the wrong questions because Technology companies keep focusing on improving Technology changes and disruptions allow them to keep the curves 10 years ago you wouldnt believe where we are today You cant imagine all future applicat
