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1、OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITY Doing Business in Iraq Amman, 5th June 2003 Achmed Al-Shahrabani McKinsey & Company, Inc. AGENDA Overview Iraq Economic scenarios for Iraq Required investments AGENDA Overview Iraq Economic scenarios for Iraq Required investments Total area: 437,000 m2 Limited arable
2、 land Arable land: 11% Permanent crops: 1% Desert: 88% Largest governates Baghdad (8.0m) Nineveh (2.1m) Basra (2.0m) Varying climate (Baghdad) Summer temp: 35-50 Winter temp: 5-15 Rainfall: 155mm/year Source: Country Watch, CIA world fact book Car transport 39,000 km paved roads 765,000 privately re
3、gistered passenger cars 266,000 privately registered trucks Air Major airports in Baghdad, Basra and Mosul Three major railway routes BaghdadKirkukIrbil BaghdadMosulYurubiyah BaghdadMaagalUmm Qasr Telecom 3% penetration, no mobile network Utilities 250 water treatment facilities Power generation cap
4、acity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MW Geography and climate Infrastructure The majority of Iraq is characterized by desert OVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY Source: CIA world fact book 100% = 24.2m Others Arabs- Shia Muslims Kurds Sunni Muslims 4 62 12 Arabs Sunni Muslims 22 ESTIMATE POPULATION SIZE
5、BY ETHNIC GROUP Shia Muslims form Iraqs ethnic majority % Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in Iran) * From 6 to 23 years Source: EIU country profile Iraq 2002 67501980 1998 EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 1980 VS. 1998 An increasing number of children does not receive formal education ESTIMA
6、TE Source: Country Watch 100110210Proven reserves Unproven potential Total 4 . 23 . 17 . 3Gas Trillion m3, 2001 Oil Billion barrels, 2001 OVERVIEW OF IRAQS NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES Iraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reserves ESTIMATE Source: BP Statistical review, 2002 1. Saudi Arab
7、ia 2. Iraq 3. UAE 4. Kuwait 5. Iran Oil, proved reserves Billion barrels, 2001 Gas, proved reserves Trillion m3, 2001 2629897901104823146631. Russia 2. Iran 3. Qatar 4. Saudi Arabia 5. UAE 10. Iraq RANKING OF BIGGEST NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES WORDWIDE which are the second largest in oil and the t
8、enth largest in gas ESTIMATE * Purchasing power parity method, current prices Source: CIA World fact book; Country Watch; EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003 2002 50-60 25-35 1980 DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* - 1980 TO 2002 Over the past decade, Iraqs real GDP fell by 50% USD billion ESTIMATE -50
9、% GDP estimates for 2002 subject to wide variation (USD 24-60 billion) * Purchasing power parity method, current prices Source: CIA World Factbook; Country Watch 2002 3.8-4.5 1.0-1.4 1980 ESTIMATE DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* PER CAPITA - 1980 TO 2002 and purchasing power parity on individual leve
10、l even further USD thousands GDP/capita estimates subject to wide variation (USD 1.000-2.500) -70% * Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 million Source: EIU country profile Iraq 1 , 1841 , 7301 , 2708 , 7301 , 150 Jordan Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Syria * ESTIMATE COMPARISON OF GDP PE
11、R CAPITA - 2002 Iraqs current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and Iran USD thousands Source: EIU country data External debt $bn 22 . 38 . 28 . 2Iraq Syria Jordan Iran 230-485 10 91 113 % of GPD 60-130 Main causes of uncertainty are Accrued interest “Assistance” funds in Iran-Iraq war Claims fo
12、llowing Gulf war 1991 ESTIMATE COMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES - 2001 Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt AGENDA Overview Iraq Economic scenarios for Iraq Recent developments Source: McKinsey “Good standard” 1 Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows mode
13、stly at a CAGR of 3-5% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 9-11%) “Best in Class” 2 Assumes the non-oil part of the the Iraqi economy grows strongly at a CAGR of 7-9% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 11-13%) “Distinctive” 3 Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraq
14、i economy grows aggressively at a CAGR 12-15% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 13-15%) ESTIMATE FOR DISCUSSION THREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS Iraqs In the World Class scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2013 Non-oil Sectors Oil production level 2008 Oil production
15、 level 2013 4-5 million barrels per day 6-7 million barrels per day Oil Sector + *) Population in 2003= 24 million, 2008=29 million, 2013=33 million Source: McKinsey GDP development 2003- 2013 (in bn USD) GDP per capita* 2003-2013 (in 000 USD) ESTIMATE FOR DISCUSSION THREE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS In the distinctive scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2013 1 “Good Standard” 1.8-2.2 2.2-2.6 2003 2013 2008 1.2 53-63 73-86 2003 2013 2008 30 14% 6% 11% 3% 2 “Best in class” 2.0-2.3 2.5-2.9 2003 2013 2008 1.2 57-67 83-98 2003 2013 2008 30 16% 8% 12% 5% 3 “Distinctive
