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1、Lightening Strikes Twice:California Faces a Real Risk of Lake Tahoe Energy ConferenceJuly 30, 2004THE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPSWILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKETAction needs to be taken today toprevent another energy crisisCEC estimates indicate thatoperat
2、ing reserves could drop belowtypical emergencylevels if we haveahot summer*Unfortunately, the CECs demandestimates appear low relative totrend and a*high demand caser (Le.，hot summer) may be as likely as a1-in-5 occurrence* Taking into account realistic levels offuture demand, operating reservescoul
3、d be extremely tight by 2006 一as low as 5.89% (in a 1-in-5 yeardemand case)5 steps that will ensure a long-termsustainable market for power1，New generation needs to be built today,given the long lead time, and amechanism for market-based contractswith utilities needs to be introduced2 California sho
4、uld introduce mandatorytime-of-use metering for all classes ofcustomers3.， New transmission needs to be built andfacilitated through a expedited andcoordinated approval process by thePUC, ISO, CEC, and FERC4.，Aformal capacity market combined withamandatory planning reserve target(e.g., 15-20%) needs
5、 to be in place by20065，The State should re-introduce elementsof retail choice, providing an opportunityforlarge consumersto shop for powerTHE STATES ENERGY AGENCIES CECESTMATESPROJECT A NEAR-TERM RISK OF LOWRESERVE MARGINS INA HOT YEARProjected California state operating reserve margin*PercentDeman
6、d国 1-in-2 year (average)国 1-in-10year (hoReserve marginsconsistently dropbeginning in 200612.7 7% target =Stage Oneemergencylevel59% target =Stage TwoemergencylevelAugust 2004 August 2005 August 2006 August 2007 August 2008“Operating reserve margin calculated as (Available Supply - Peak Demand)(Peak
7、 Demand)Source: Califomia Energy Commission (July 8, 2004 update to June 24, 2004 report)ENERGY AGENCY FORECASTS OF FUTURE DEMAND ARE ESTMATESOFTINEOPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS YEARPEAKDEMANDPeak demand (average weathen, after conservationGw Different models65 of demand | Regressio
8、n mode60 1 -CEC-May 2003| |一 Trend CEC-July 200455 150 For 2006, the CECs 45 estimate is 1,000 MWbelow trend-lineestimates and 2,1004 MW below a regression model estimate3530 - 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006， Regression projection based on historic weather historic GSP, current GSP pro
9、jections (5 6s6j,and average weather一 Based on historic CAGRor peak demand growih before including conservation (underying growth of 1.8896 for 1983-2003) andadjusted for expected 2004-2008 conservationin Caltfomia (provided by CEC)Source: Calfomia Energy Commission; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Eco
10、nomy com 3THE POTENTIAL FOR A “HIGH DEMAND CASEIS AS HIGH 。 ESE6GN 一AS A 1-IN-5 EVENT, RATHER THAN JUST A 1-IN-10 EVENT 9sTepepeA Distribution of average statewide peak temperatureNumber of years observed over past 40 years8 outofihe last 40 years二 20?9),peak101 93- 94- 95- 96- 97- 98- 99- 100-i1011
11、 102- 103- 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101;102:Temperature rangeDegrees Fahrenheit103 104 Potential 2006 peak demandGW59.50159,12157,5411in2 1in5 Tin 10demand 。 demand 。 demand “Based on BAEF regression-model estimates of 2006 peak demandSource: Califomnia Energy Commission TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A DIFFERENT
12、 VIEW EAEFESTINATE OF FUTURE DEMAND, THE RISK OF DemandSHORTAGES IS EVEN STARKER 国 1n2yearProjected California state operating reserve margin* 国 1in5yearPercent。750 MW of new capacity willbe needed before 2006 tomaintain a 7%6 operatingreserve under a 1-in-5 case99 *Given the lead time fornew- const
13、ruction, permitting anddemand side management 79% target =needs to begin today Stage One 596 targetStage Twoemergency level August 2005 August 2006 August 2007 August 2008“Operating reserve margin calculated as (Available Supply - Peak Demand)(Peak Demand)了As much as 2.000 MW would be required to ma
14、intain a planning reserve margin of 1596 for the 1-in-5 case，which would equate to a 1-in-2 operating reserve of 12.196 and a -in-5 operating reserve of 9.196Source: California Energy Commission (July 8, 2004 update to June 24, 2004 report); McKinsey analysis 5THE STATEIS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CR
15、ISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPSWILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKETAction needs to be taken today toprevent another energy crisis“CEC estimates indicate thatoperating reserves could drop belowtypical “emergency levels if we haveahot summer*Unfortunately, the CECs demandestimates appear low relative
16、totrend and a high demand case (iehot summer) may be as likely as a1-in-5 occurrence* Taking into account realistic levels offuture demand, operating reservescould be extremely tight by 2006 -as low as 5.8% (in a 1-in-5 yeardemand case) MARKET-BASED LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SHOULD BE ADOPTEDTO FACILITATE
17、 GENERATION CONSTRUCTIONHow contracts would work.and what market-based prices wouldlook like underthe contracts Who will build:“Competitive RFP process allowingutility affiliates or merchantgeneratorsto bidWho will buy:* Inthe nearterm, utilities will beresponsible for signing contracts withthe winn
18、ing bidders, with guaranteedrate recovery of contract costsHow will contracts be priced:*Will be market based contracts, withan ROE on capital investment andpass through of variable generationCosts-Capacity payment will providereturn on capital investment一Energy payment will be based on aspecified p
19、lant efficiency andindexed to natural gas prices California cost of generation Dollars per MWh TLLUSTRATIVE10090上上一一一一一一一一一一DWR contract price80 (2003 average)70 Electricity price60 交吉二 under new market-和 ”“”- - 、based contracts*50 840 Te302 Capacity payment1002003 2005 2007 2009 2011 “AIHin wholesa
20、le electricity price including capacity payment, gas price, energy costs了 Assumes 153 ROE, 8% cost of debt $450/kW CCGTinvestment cost, 10-yearretumn periodSource: California DWR; NYMEX; Mckinsey analysis THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SOURCES OF CAPACITY THAT COULDBE BROUGHT ON LINE BY 2006 IF THE STATE ACT
21、S NOWCalifornia capacityEstimated time to online 。 Steps to bring Plants that have beenmothballed, but could 0.5Gigawatts Months capacity online。Relaxed environmentalrestrictions346 ，Shortterm contractsbe brought back on linePlants partlyconstructed , butincomplete duetofinancing orlack ofcohitracts
22、*Plants with permitsfrom the CPUC but not 6.5under construction。E.g., Etiwanda。* Mid-long term contracts(5-10 years)。E.g., Metcalf, Pico8-12。Long term contracts(5-10 years)12-18。Extended permitshelf life，E.g., Tesla, San JoaquinTo ensure new capacity is brought on line by the summer of2006, the CPUC
23、 must act now to ensure that long-term contractsare available to generators to complete existing projects“includes projects under construction delayed more than 24 months fom initial planned oniine date拉 Assumes most of these plants are 4096 complete (as ofJuly 2004)Source: Calfomia Energy Commissio
24、n; MoKkinsey analysisDDCALIFORNIA LAGS OTHER STATES IN ITS DEMAND SAVINGSFROM LOAD MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS 吕 Ra Top 25 statesin peak DSM savings from energy efficiency2002 annual peak savings from energy efficiency MW1891 Even though Californiaisa leaderea 加 energy e11iciency there js roomto improve by
25、-900MW 970，774646 593 558 510 468274 269 264 244 214 208 205 202 200 183 120 103 98 97 94 75 67FL MN CA GA NC NE ND PA CO OH MD 内 DCc OK NY AL VA AR L WwWI AZ SD IN MO ME Top 25 states in load management DSM savings2002 annualload management savings as percent of (Savings + Peakj, MW17.4太California achieved levels of Florida, 必could seea reduction of demand by-2GWinioad managementalone7.3 665 56 47 46 37“37 34 16 23 23 21201716141412111NE SD MN DC AR LA CO FL MD ME WY OK VT PA A GANC UT AK CA AL AZ VA DE NY Note: Includes only utlites reporting DSM actvitesSource: EIA; state dlsclosures 9
