《新财富：美国中期选举后的美中贸易.S.-ChinaTradeupdated》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《新财富：美国中期选举后的美中贸易.S.-ChinaTradeupdated（69页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、1,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Post Midterm Election & U.S.-China Trade 美国中期选举后的美中贸易 2010新财富最佳分析师高峰论坛 2010年11月27日 中国 深圳,2,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,美国了解中国吗？ 一个人到中国呆上一周，他会写一本书； 一个人到中国呆上一个月，他只能写一篇文章； 如果呆上一年的话，那他什么都不写。,3,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,“I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of
2、America against all enemies, foreign and domestic; I will bear arms on behalf of the United States when required by the law;”,4,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Agenda,给奥巴马打分 美国消费者怎么啦？ 中国出口- 国家竞争优势 中国消费者怎么啦？,5,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,6,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,7,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,From: Chengning Liu mailto: Sent: Satur
3、day, February 23, 2008 11:39 AM To: Wilson Zhu Subject: Prediction On February, 11, 2008, I wrote on a post - it note that “ Barack Obama will become the next President of the U.S. This is not my political position nor does it indicate I will vote for him. What I want to emphasize here is that he ha
4、s the ability to inspire people by articulating a vision. This is what an important quality a leader must have in order to lead. People do not want to make predictions as a different result will make them look stupid. I do not care as I am not in the “Weather Forecast“ business. But I want to keep t
5、his record to test my belief of the power of communication. Weizhong Zhu,8,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,面试评估表,候选人姓名：巴拉克. 奥巴马 职务：美国总统 主考官：美国人民 日期：2008年2月11日,结论： 聘用： X 不予聘用: _ * 请在面试当天送人力资源部,9,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,10,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Midterm Progress Check,评估人：美国人民 员工姓名：巴拉科. 奥巴马 时间 : 2010年11月2日 职称：美国总统,11,10
6、/22/2018 12:35 AM,Its the economy, stupid. 是经济，真蠢！,12,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Agenda,给奥巴马打分 美国消费者怎么啦？ 中国出口- 国家竞争优势 中国消费者怎么啦？,13,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,“很鼓舞人心，她人在急症室，但是心系购物！”,14,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Unemployment Rate Remains High 失业率居高不下,9.6%,15,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Foreclosure Tsunami Continues 因无力支付房贷被收回房产之
7、海啸,2004： $141,000 2006： Wells Fargo foreclosed on the house on the left and took the property at a Sheriff Sale, and that house became vacant. Wells Fargo let it sit vacant for two years 2008：$1,200 sold to an investor who investor continued to let it sit vacant and deteriorating. The owner of an ad
8、jacent house, a single mother with two children, could only watch while the value of her home plummetedif she had to sell shed be lucky to get $80,000.,2004： $141,000 2008：$1,200,16,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,1500万个家庭成“负翁” 15 million under water,400万个家庭的平均负房值高达10万7千美金 4 Million average negative equity is a
9、 whopping $107,000,780万个家庭的房贷比房值高出25% 7.8 Million at least owe 25% more than their property worth.,17,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,The Stock Market is up but still at 2000 level. 股市虽然回升，但还是在11年前的水准,The Dow first crossed above 11,000 in 1999 and has made the trips 38 times since then. Boomers lost half of the
10、ir net worth in 5 years in the USA,18,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Your Consumers Dollar 消费者的美元,YEAR,SUMMARY: If you made $38K in 1980 it would be equivalent to making $100K today.,$100,000美元,2010,19,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,20,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,- 1.3%,+5.7%,第三季度同店同期销售成长比较 Third Quarter Same-Store Sales Growth,
11、21,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,22,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Chinese Cost Pressure Continues 中国的商品成品持续上涨,23,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,劳工短缺,人民币升值,价格上涨,双位数工资涨幅,原材料上涨,船运费用上涨,24,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,逆风 通货膨胀，价格上扬 消费品类的改变（民以食为天） 网络货比三家,顺风 自有品牌 供应链和库存管理 直接进口,Retail Headwinds and Tailwinds 零售业逆风和顺风,25,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Vs. 42%
12、 in 2009,26,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,$89 Billion 890亿美元,2010: $688.87 2009: $681.83 2007: $750.00,27,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Agenda,给奥巴马打分 美国消费者怎么啦？ 中国出口- 国家竞争优势 中国消费者怎么啦？,28,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,中国在美国中期选举中成了拳击沙袋 China the Punching Bag in U.S. Midterm Election,29,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Why do great nations fail?
13、 大国为什么衰落？,2030,30,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,In a speech prepared for a conference at the European Central Bank on Friday morning, Bernanke said that Chinas decision to undervalue the yuan has essentially thrown a monkey wrench into the global economic recovery,伯南克重砲攻擊中國匯率政策 強調干預貨幣是導致全球經濟不均的禍首,31,10/22/201
14、8 12:35 AM,On Feb. 5, Chinas Ministry of Commerce announced it would begin imposing antidumping tariffs ranging from 43.1% to 105.4% on imports of chicken parts from the U.S.,鸡脚爪 中美贸易摩擦的象征 Chicken Feet: A Symbol of U.S.-China Tension,32,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,￥125 = $16.66 ￥231 = $35.00 +110% 7.5 6.6,3
15、3,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,Both Sides Recognize there is a deficit of strategic trust. 双方意识到互相之间的战略信任赤字,34,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,6月22日德国总理默克尔拒绝响应奥巴马刺激内需的呼吁,“人为地降低德国的国家竞争优势对任何人都没有好处！”,35,10/22/2018 12:35 AM,The Competitive Advantage of Nations 国家竞争优势,产业的集群现象 产业链-休戚与共的优势网络 机会 -可遇不可求 政府角色 - 干预与放任的平衡 服务与制造 - 唇
16、齿相依,Michael Porter 迈克尔. 波特,“The central question to be answered is why do firms based in particular nations achieve international success in distinct segments and industries? The search is for the decisive characteristics of a nation that allow its firms to create and sustain competitive advantage in particular fields, that is, the competitive advantage of nations.“,
