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1、1,XXX 项目投资评估报告 子公司或集团名称，2010年 x 月 x 号,2,目录,项目摘要和背景 战略考量和主要假设 项目参数和选择 资本和运营费用开支 环保、健康和安全（只适用于专项） 项目实施计划 风险分析和管理 经济和投资分析,3,1. 项目摘要和背景,项目摘要包括具体建议和申请背景 描述投资机会和现状 有无任何承诺已经作出,4,2. 战略考量和主要假设,战略考量要结合3年战略规划来谈主要假设 包括经济、市场、运营、基建、环境和财务方面等,5,3. 项目参数和选择,项目参数和选择项目/事业部所在位置 市场分析，如竞争者和客户分析，定价机制等 产品组合，运营范围（如上下游加工的程度，自
2、制/内协/外协） 技术和工艺方法 与行业关系 投资者结构（合作/合资，自建/租赁） 基建,6,2010 (Total=351KT),North America,130 KT,Asia,54 KT,Other,28 KT,Europe,139 KT,Other,34 KT,Europe,158 KT,Asia,109 KT,North America,142 KT,Rest Asia,Aero,15KT,China,GE,8KT,China,Aero,12KT,Rest Asia,GE,19KT,China,GE,41KT,China,Aero,25KT,Rest Asia,GE,26KT,Re
3、st Asia,Aero,17KT,例子：整体市场,50% of 2010-2016 World HT plate market growth will occur in China,World HT Plate Market Evolution,2016 (Total=442KT),2010 (Total=54KT),2016 (Total=109KT),Asia HT Plate Market Evolution,Reduced import of machinery from Europe and US to China, substituted by local manufacturi
4、ng Focus of World growth of semi-conductor equipment in China, and displacement of 30% of current US manufacturing of this equipment to China Increased production of blow-molds in China, driven by increased consumption of plastic-bottle beverages Increased outsourcing by Airbus to China in a bid to
5、reduce manufacturing costs and acquire favorable position relative to Chinese airlines Ramp-up of Chinese manufactured aircraft,World: 2%/y EU: 1%/y NA: 1%/y Asia: 7%/y,China GE: 18%/y Aero: 8%/yRest Asia GE: 4%/y Aero: 1%/y,7,Unprofitable,Market EVA ($/T),Advantaged,A,D,C,B,-800,-400,0,400,800,-6%,
6、-3%,0%,3%,6%,Market Volume Growth 2010-2016,GE HT Plate,Aero HT Plate,TMI NHT Plates,TMI Shates,Volume: 50 kt,Wide Coils,Aero Sheets,Tread Shates,HT Plates,Other,Xxx is the World co-leader of the 2$B heat treated1 (HT) plate market, with a market share of 31% HT plate market can be sub-divided in tw
7、o key application-segments: Aerospace General Engineering. ,例子：产品组合,Aerospace and general engineering HT plate are the two most attractive segments in the business portfolio,8,Potential sources of extra capacity in China,Factors affecting ability to move to China soon,Domestic Chinese producers,Chal
8、co is increasing HT plate capacity (from 10KT in 2010 to 65KT in 2016) Further capacity increase unlikely to occur before 2016: Need to focus on producing and selling 65KT: at present, lack skills to produce quality GE plate and are not internationally qualified for aero plate Other growth paths are
9、 being pursued,Has just invested $500m in XXX market, attention is focused on success Existing owned Chinese mills are designed to produce foil and can stock are not cost effective to enter GE plate market but could do it on opportunistic approach,Capex on this scale difficult given recent emergence
10、 from bankruptcy,Owns McCook equipment. Signed JV with Chinese partner,Potential entrant no evidence of intent to date, but could go for a technology agreement or minority share,Ability to move soon,?,Western producers,例子：目前和潜在的竞争进入者,ABC is likely to be the first mover if it moves now,Risk of other
11、Chinese players (Alnan/Nanning),?,9,9,Delivered cost = production cost + SG&A + R&D + freight + duties at $/ rate of 1.44, Rmb/$ of 6.75 and RUR/$ at 36. Import duties: 6% in China, 7.5% in Europe and 3.3% in USA.,Europe,China,USA,GE Plate Delivered Cost* 2016 ($/T),3000,2900,1900,1000,-150,2550,280
12、0,1900,1400,1250,-1300,3000,2400,1950,1200,1100,-1300,European mills,US mills,Russian mills,Chinese mills,ABC China mill,Product Source,1,217,例子：竞争优势,ABC China will have a competitive advantage both in domestic and export markets, producing at Western quality levels with the lowest cost position Wor
13、ldwide,10,10,Airbus subcontracts production of A320 wing boxes (+1.5KT) and structural parts for A350 (+4.1KT) Limited growth of Boeing aluminium sub-contracting to China driven by focus on composites for 787 parts Embraer/Bombardier will subcontract part of their new regional jet production in Chin
14、a (vs. Japan historically) Chinese growth demand is driven by ramp-up of ARJ21 to 27 deliveries annually (85T / aircraft) Limited growth in Japan and Korea is due to Boeing focus on composites and Airbus subcontracting focus on China (vs. Japan/Korea)Post-2017 Chinese demand will continue to grow wi
15、th continued sub-contracting by Western OEMs to China and by ramp-up of domestic programs (Chinese single-aisle as well as ARJ-21) assumption of CAGR of 10% Post-2017 Rest of Asia CAGR=0%,2010-16 Aero Plate Demand Evolution by OEM KT,2006-16 Growth,2006,Growth Drivers,49,9%,1%,CAGR,Airbus,Boeing,Emb
16、/Bom,Domestic,Airbus,Boeing,Emb/Bom,Domestic,China,Rest of Asia (Japan/Korea),例子：产品细分市场,Growth is focused in China and is driven by Airbus and domestic OEMs,China,Rest of Asia,EU, NA, ROW,2010-16 Aero Plate Demand Evolution by Region KT,2,0,11,2017* Aero Plate Sales by Supplier Asia,KT,China,Japan & Korea,Asian market is split between three suppliers: ABC: 37% Chalco: 30% Alcoa: 22%World market share: ABC: 38% Alcoa: 36% Chalco: 5%,
