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1、, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Roach Ag Marketing Business ModelFor Dalian Commodity Exchange Presented by: John RoachAugust 3, 2010, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Started 1978 at Perry, Iowa Now have 10 Corn Belt Offices & Florida Corp Ofc. Added offices where brokers lived,Roach Ag
2、 Philosophy:Farmers are mentally wired to be detail-oriented - perfectionists Markets defy perfection Our job is to explain markets to make decision easier Successful but simple systems are very helpful Each farmer needs connection to markets,Roach Ag provides market guidance:22 brokers help custs u
3、se futures & options Daily communications between brokers and customers spec and hedge Daily Grain Marketing Plan Sell Signals Consulting services Farm visits Crop Insurance Seminars and travel programs,Roach Ag grows by: Referrals from existing customers Seminar programs Direct Mail Web exposure TV
4、 and radio exposure Trade shows, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,What are the Fundamentals Now?, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Ro
5、ach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,July 2010 42.9 Bu / Acre, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketin
6、g, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Market has bullish attitude due to end of short crop Tight U.S. stocks until harvest may give sharp rallies2010 supplies becoming more surplus econ slow S. America will still be shipping in Dec. hurting new crop bean pricePrices headed towa
7、rd harvest lows if no weather problems,Bean Situation and Price Outlook, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,How Should I Market My Crops?, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,December 2007 Corn,Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Pr
8、ices, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71), Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Nov. 2010 Roach Ag. Bean Sell Signals, Roach Ag Marketing,
9、Ltd.,Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487800-622- http:/, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,July 2010 163.5 Bu / Ac, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, L
10、td., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,World coarse grain and U.S. ending stocks smaller Russian crop losses Poor quality took more bushels than norm 2010 crop quality better than normal We need a big corn crop in 2011 Prices heade
11、d to harvest low- sell 11 and 12 Inflation gone,Corn Situation and Price Outlook, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Focus the majority of sales in the 1st half of the year March through June is usually best,Rule # 1, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Why Market Grain Aggressively?,In the las
12、t 21 years, Comparing December Corn Futures in MarchJune vs. Oct-NovDropped Significantly 15 years Drifted Sideways 3 years Increased Significantly 3 yearsMarketing Ahead is Correct 85% of the Time!,What is it worth?,The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Oct Nov $3.070.66,The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn du
13、ring Roach Mar June Sell Signals = $3.73,What is it worth?,150 bpa X 0.66 = $100 per acre, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal,Rule # 2, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring an
14、d tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level,Rule # 3, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields,Rule # 4, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harv
15、est to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February,Rule # 5, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal,Rule # 6, Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.,December 2009 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals,Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract,
