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1、南开大学硕士学位论文天津市公路交通量时变特性及阻抗水平的分析姓名：常小兰申请学位级别：硕士专业：概率论与数理统计指导教师：王公恕2000.2.1摘 要经济的加速发展和市场的繁荣，带来了交通运输的空前繁忙和各种车辆的迅速增长，尤其是给公路交通带来巨大压力。公路交通运输直接影响着车辆出行的直接经济效益和地区的社会经济效益，所以研究公路交通量的变化规律，对于进行公路规划、交通管理、交通设施的规划、设计方案比较和经济分析以及交通控制与安全，均具有重要意义。目前天津公路网规划中，对交通量进行路网分配时，不考虑交通量小时分布不均匀系数。忽略了交通量的时变化，即只是路网静态配流分析，但在实际交通量的调查中，
2、交通量是动态的，存在着时变特征认为均匀高峰交通量是一个虚的概念，静态配流技术不适合于分析交通拥挤现象，会低估旅行时间和拥挤程度，不能准确反映路段的阻抗水平，尤其是高峰时段。豫杏配流模型，对于中长期交通规划是有效的，但要分析交通量的高峰低谷等时变现象，应该使用动态模型。本文的中心课题是研究交通量的时变特性，即交通量不均匀分布特性。对目前天津市干线公路的交通量的时变特征进行了定量分析，得出四种交通量的时变趋势。有的路段时变化不显著，比较平稳；而有的路段时变化是相当显著的，即小时分布不均匀系数较大，交通量存在着高峰小时显著和日夜差异显著等特征。对四种时变趋势进行分段阐归拟合，得出流量时间分段函数回归
3、模型，并将其加载到路网配流的速度流量模型中，得出速度时间模型，充分考虑了各路段的交通阻抗水平的时变特征对路同配流的影响。本文讨论主要内容如下：一、对天津市42条路线(75个观累I站)1999年11月20 El全天OD调查数据进行分析处理，选取9个交通量时变特性的统计指标，包括均值、最大值、最小值、极值、高峰小时流量占全天、日间流量占全天、夜间流量占全天、变异系数、偏度、峰度。二、对选取的9个指标进行因子分析，得到3个主因子：日夜差异因子、高峰小时差异因子、流量散布因子，并计算其因子得分。三、对75个观测站的主因子得分进行两级聚类分析，将天津市交通量时变趋势分为四类：平稳流、正常流、高峰小时显著
4、流、日间集中流。嚣、 诗簿西释辩变趋势豹分段爨效攮台模鳖，遴避酲爨模型、舞妇系数的显著性检验，以及拟合优度的比较，得出较为合理的分段函数拟合模烈。纛、 对天津市瓣前各等级公路瓣日交通阻抗水平和小嚣幸交通阻撬承平的现状进行了静泰的分析，对中长期公路蝮划提供了依据。又从动态的角度分析，将时交趋势回妇拟合模型加载蒯路网醚流的模挺中，充分考虑了各路段的交通阻抗水平瓣眩焚特征对黪羁嚣滤豹影响通过本文的系统分析，证明在路网配流中考虑交通量的时嶷特性怒非常必要豹，嚣虽是霹露豹。关键调：公路交通量时变特性阻抗水平趋势分毫f动态静f究Summary111e rapid development of econom
5、y and prosperity of market has brought about theincredible increase in amount of vehicles and unprecedentedly heavy pressure oncommunications and transportationHighway transportation directly influences theeconomic benefit of vehicles and the social benefit of a certain regiontherefore，theresearch o
6、f the pattern of highway transportation is very important for highwayplanning，managementof transportation，plarming of traffic faeilities，designingcomparisoneconomic analysis and trafIic contr01At presentwhen we distribute the volume of tramc in the available hie,hway net inTianjin，the static analysi
7、s is applied，without considering the distrbution coefficientsof the irregular factor and timeliness of traffic volumeThe uniform peak trafficvolume is also regarded as a unreal variable by the smile analysis，and thenunderestimation of travel time and the degree of crowdness was causedBesidesstatic a
8、nalysis can not reflect the traveling cost in highway,especially during rushhoursStatic tra确c assignment model is e15cient for middle and longterm planningbut for the phenomena of the change of tra伍c volume at peak and low hoursdynamic analysis would be appliedThe main purpose of tlIii paper is to s
9、tudy the characteristic of timeliness of trafficvolume，the irregular factorBased on the quantitative analysis on the characteristic oftimeliness of traffic volume on the main lines in Tianjinfour timeliness tendenciesare eoneluded，mat is some of them do not change extremously which are steady，butthe
10、 others change extremously of which the distribution coe伍cient of the irregularfactor is differentthat is characteristic of the big change of tra伍c volume at peakhour and the great diffefence of traffic volume between day and nightThrough thedivided sections regression of timeliness tendenciestraffi
11、c volumetime regressionmodels of divided sections are concludedand then load them to speedtraffic volumeassignment models of highway net，thca speedtraffic volume models are concluded，which reflect the influence of traveling cost in highway on tra艏e volume assignmentof highway netMain contents ofthis
12、 paper is：1after analyzing the data from OD census of 75 traffic observation stations in 42Tianjin main lines on 20November in 19999 statistic variables which showtimeliness characteristic are selected，including mean，maximum。minimum，range，rate of traffic volume during rush hours to during the whole
13、dayrate of tra侬cvolume during day to during the whole day，rate of traffic volume during night toduring the whole day，change toeticients，skewness，kurtosis2Through factor analysis of 9 statistic variables，three main factors are available：factor of difierence between tramc volume on day and at nightfac
14、tor of significentvolume at peak hour,factor oflevel ofdecretethen calculate factor scores3According to the factor scores，classify the timeliness tendencies of 75 observationstations in two stepsThey are classified to Four clusters of tra街C flows：steadyflowsfoiToaI flows， significent flows at peak h
15、our and flows concentrating onday。4Calculate divided sectionsmodelsoffourclusters oftrafileflows，then accordingtosignificent test of models and their coefficients，and comparing their R squares，theoptical model is obtained。5 Static analysis of traveling cost of day on different grade highways of Tian
16、jinprovide some references to middle and longteml highway planningAlso applyingdynamic analysis，regression models of timeliness tendencies ale loaded to trafficvolume assignment models of highway net，which reflect the influence oftimeliness traveling cost in highway on traffic volume assignment of highway netBased on the sysmatic analysis，we Call prove that it is necessary and feasible toconsiderKey words：traffic volume of high
