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1、基于德尔菲法基于德尔菲法因子分析法的村镇银行盈利能力因子分析法的村镇银行盈利能力评价模型研究评价模型研究情报学专业由于村镇银行为独立企业法人，以安全性、流动性、效益性为经营原则，自主经营、自担风险，与其他企业一样，村镇银行首先要生存和发展，而生存和发展必须具备基本抵御风险的能力，盈利能力则是满足这一要求的最基本底线，同时，盈利能力的强弱关乎其短期与长期发展，影响到其可持续性，因此，对村镇银行盈利能力进行分析与评价至关重要。本文提出了村镇银行盈利能力评价模型，通过该模型可以对村镇银行的盈利能力进行评价、分析，了解各村镇银行的盈利状况，找出村镇银行盈利运营的榜样及瓶颈，及时采取相关措施予以纠正。此
2、外，该模型的提出有助于银监会对村镇银行管理工作的科学化、规范化，并且对裁撤及指导村镇银行规范运行具有明确的理论意义和实践意义。文章基于信息需求分析、信息收集、处理及分析这一情报过程构建村镇银行盈利能力评价模型。首先，对村镇银行盈利能力评价进行信息需求分析，界定村镇银行盈利能力概念，指出评价范围及内容，同时分析了评价关键流程；其次，在信息需求分析的基础上采用文献调查法、网络检索法来收集相关文献及财务报表；再次，对所收集到的信息进行处理、分析，先是通过对三家村镇银行财务报表进行整理、比较、重新组合，应用杜邦财务分析法探究村镇银行盈利影响因素，同时，参考国内外学者的商业银行盈利能力研究成果，采用文献
3、调查法得出商业银行盈利能力研究的关键指标，在此基础上结合村镇银行盈利能力评价内容得出预设计的村镇银行盈利能力评价指标体系，然后应用此指标体系，采用德尔菲法对其进行修改、完善，最后采用回归分析法来修正专家II的咨询结果，得出最终村镇银行盈利能力评价指标体系。与此同时，通过对德尔菲法、因子分析法进行介绍、分析，指出其不足及优点，提出将二者科学结合起来以扬长避短，达到主观分析与客观分析、定性分析与定量分析的统一，得出村镇银行盈利能力评价方法-德尔菲-因子分析法，在此基础上构建村镇银行盈利能力评价模型。最后以四川省村镇银行为例，收集各村镇银行的监管数据，对所构建的村镇银行盈利能力评价模型进行实证研究，
4、得出了影响村镇银行盈利的主要因素及各村镇银行在盈利能力方面所存优势及不足，并针对不足提出相关建议，为银监会在对村镇银行进行管理、决策时提供必要的客观依据。关键词：村镇银行 盈利能力 评价指标 德尔菲法 因子分析法 IIIEvaluation model of village banks profitability based on the Delphi Method -Factor AnalysisInformation ScienceMaster Candidate ：Hu Yuanyuan Supervisor ：Associate Prof. Luo JunAs independent
5、corporate entities, operating principles of Village banks are security, mobility and efficiency, operating independently at their own risk as well. Like other companies, Village banks should survive and develop at first.In order to achieve these, they should have basic ability to resist risks and th
6、e profitability is the most basic bottom line to meet those requirements.At the same time, the strength of profitability is related to their development in short term as well as long term, having impact on the sustainable management. Therefore, the analysis and evaluation of the profitability is ess
7、ential for village banks. In this paper, the profitability evaluation model of village banks is constructed, by which we can evaluate and analyze the profitability of village banks, knowing about the profitability of each village bank and identifying the example and the bottleneck of profitable oper
8、ation of village banks, taking measures timely to correct deficiencies. In addition, the model can help CBRC to scientifically administer village banks in accordance with standard and it is beneficial for the abolition and guidance village banks standardized operation.Evaluation model of village ban
9、ks profitability is based on the information process,which is involved of the analysis of information needs ,collection of information and analyzation of it.Firstly, the analysis of information needs on evaluating of the profitability of village banks is made and the thesis defines the concept of vi
10、llage banks profitability,pointing out the content of evaluation and from IVthe perspective of operating principle, the constraints of profitability of capacity are discussed, while the evaluation of key processes is analyzed; Secondly, on the basis of information needs analysis, literature survey a
11、nd network retrieval method are used to collect relevant documents and financial statements. Thirdly,to process and analyze the collected information, first, by finishing financial statements of three village banks, the DuPont financial analysis is applied to explore the constrains of profitability,
12、 and the scholars of the commercial banks profitability research is referred, and literature survey is used to reach the key indicators of the commercial banks profitability evaluation.Basing on these, combining the evaluation content of village banks profitability, evaluation index system of villag
13、e banks profitability is pre-designed, and then, applying this index system, using the Delphi method to modify it, and finally regression analysis is used to revised the outcome of experts consultation. Ultimately, index system of village banks profitability evaluation is concluded. At the same time
14、, with the introduction of the Delphi method and factor analysis, it proposed their advantages and weaknesses.More importantly, this paper also made an organic unity of these two methods to adapt to the evaluation of village banks profitability, which is called Delphi - Factor Analysis, on this basi
15、s, profitability evaluation model of villages bank is constructed.At last, taking village banks of Sichuan Province as an example, basing on the regulatory data, an empirical research of the village banks profitability evaluation model is made.As a result of this, the main constraints of village ban
16、k profitability are drawn as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each village banks profitability and the recommendations are made for its shortcomings, which provides the necessary objective basis for CBRC in managing village banks.Key words: Village banks, profitability, Evaluation Index,Delphi method, factor analysis目 录V目目 录录 .V图目录图目录.VIII表目录表目录 .X1绪论绪论 11.1研究背景及意义 11.1.1研究背景 11.1.2研究意义 21.2国内外研究现状 21.2.1商业银行盈利能力研究现状 21.2.2村镇银行研究现状 51.3研究理论基础、内容及方案 81.3.1情报过程理论 81.3.2研究内容
