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1、Chapter 5 The Value of Informationn5.1 Introductionn5.2 the Bullwhip Effectn5.3 Effective Forecastsn5.4 Information for the Coordination of Systemsn5.5 Locating Desired Productsn5.6 Lead Time Reductionn5.7 Integrating the Supply Chain5.1 IntroductionWe live in the “Information Age.” databases, elect
2、ronic data interchange (EDI), decision- support systems, the Internet, and intranets are just a few of the technologies dominating the business page of the daily newspaper.The implications of this abundance of available information are enormous. The supply chain pundits and consultants like to use t
3、he phrase, In modern supply chains, information replaces inventory.Information changes the way supply chains can and should be effectively managed, and these changes may lead to, among other things, lower inventories.We argue here that this abundant information:pHelps reduce variability in the suppl
4、y chain.pHelps suppliers make better forecasts, accounting for promotions and market changes.pEnables the coordination of manufacturing and distribution systems and strategies.pEnables retailers to better serve their customers by offering tools for locating desired itemspEnables retailers to react a
5、nd adapt to supply problems more rapidly.pEnables lead time reductions.5.2 The Bullwhip EffectFor instanceFigure 4.5 illustrates a simple four-stage supply chain: a single retailer, a single wholesaler, a single distributor, and a single factory.It is important to identify techniques and tools that
6、will allow us to control the bullwhip effect; that is ,to control the increase in variability in the supply chain.For this purpose, we need to first understand the main factors contributing to the increase in variability in the supply chain.1. Demand forecasting. An attractive policy used in practic
7、e by each stage of the supply chain is the min- max inventory policy. Here, whenever the inventory position at a facility is less than a given number, referred to as the reorder point, the facility raises its inventory level up to a given target level, called the order-to -level.库存订货点理论最大库存量订货点安全库存量
8、订货提前期2. Lead time.It is easy to see that the increase in variability is magnified with increasing lead time.With longer lead times, a small change in the estimate of demand variability implies a significant change in safety stock, reorder level, and thus in order quantities.3. Batch ordering. Wholes
9、aler will observe a large order, followed by several periods of no orders, followed by another large order, and so on. Thus, the wholesaler sees a distorted and highly variable pattern of orders.Firms use batch ordering for a number of reasons. First, a firm that is faced with fixed ordering costs n
10、eeds to apply the min-max inventory policy, which leads to batch ordering. Second, as transportation costs become more significant, retailers may order quantities that allow them to take advantage of transportation discounts.4. price fluctuation. Price fluctuation can also lead to the bullwhip effec
11、t. If prices fluctuate, retailers often attempt to stock up when prices are lower. 5. inflated orders. Inflated orders placed by retailers during shortage periods tend to magnify the bullwhip effect. Such orders are common when retailers and distributors suspect that a product will be in short suppl
12、y, and therefore anticipate receiving supply proportional to the amount ordered.When the period of shortage is over, the retailer goes back to its standard orders, leading to all kinds of distortions and variations in demand estimates.5.2.3 Methods for Coping with the Bullwhip EffectnReducing uncert
13、ainty. One of the most frequent suggestions for decreasing or eliminating the bullwhip effect is to reduce uncertainty throughout the supply chain by centralizing demand information; that is, by providing each stage of the supply chain with complete information on actual customer demand.2、Reducing v
14、ariability.everyday low price(EDLP)：When a retailer uses EDLP, it offers a product at a single consistent price, rather than offering a regular price with periodic price promotions. By eliminationg pricing that occur along with these promotions. Therefore, everyday low pricing strategies can lead to
15、 much more stable-that is , less variable-customer demand patterns.3、Lead time reduction. Observe that lead times typically include two components: order lead times (i.e., the time it takes to produce and ship the item) and information lead times (i.e., the time it takes to process an order).4、Strat
16、egic partnerships.These strategic partnerships change the way information is shared and inventory is managed within a supply chain, possibly eliminating the impact of the bullwhip effect. For example, VMI 5.3 Effective ForecastsInformation leads to more effective forecasts.For example, consider retailer forecasts. These are typically based on an analysis of previous sales at the retailer. However, future customer demand is clearly influenced by such issues as pricing, promotions, and t
