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1、philipson.infoTen Trends for the Information MillenniumGraeme PhilipsonIT 2003 Conference 19 November 2003philipson.info1. The Information Explosionphilipson.infoThe Information ExplosionKM ERPCRMSFADWXMLOLAPDigital Cameras InternetBIWirelessDBMSOLTPphilipson.infoHow much information?KilobyteA page
2、of textphilipson.infoMegabyteA short novelHow much information?philipson.infoGigabyteBeethovens Fifth SymphonyHow much information?philipson.infoTerabyteAll the X-rays in a large hospitalHow much information?philipson.infoPetabyteThe contents of the worlds research librariesHow much information?phil
3、ipson.infoExabyteAll the words ever spokenHow much information?philipson.infoZettabyteGrains of sand on all the worlds beachesHow much information?philipson.infoYottabyteAtoms in 7000 human bodiesHow much information?philipson.infoSome facts about informationnThe world produced 3 Exabytes of new inf
4、ormation last yearnThe amount of new information is doubling every two years nMore new information will be created over the next few years than in the entire history of mankind so farnMore information is created by individuals than companies (the “democratisation of information”)nMore than 100 billi
5、on photos are taken every yearphilipson.info2. The Real-Time Economyphilipson.infoBuild-to-orderZero LatencyJITInstant responseReal timeBusiness VelocityTime to MarketCycle timesContinuous loopphilipson.infoIncreasing Business VelocityReduced time for sample business processes, 1984 - 2003 107 10610
6、5 104 1,000 100 10 1 SecondsTrading analyticsDocument transfer Call center enquiries Trade settlementBuild-to-order PC Refresh data warehouse Airline operationsTrack financial positionSupply chain updates10 secsPhone activation1 month1 hourMail express fax E-mail3 days45 secs6 weeks24 hours5 days1 d
7、ay30 minutes5 secs8 hours20 minutes30 secs1 day5 minutes1 day15 minutes3 days1 hourSource: Gartnerphilipson.info3. Everybody is a Userphilipson.infoTotal Number of Applications Usersphilipson.info4. A Wireless Worldphilipson.infoWorldwide Mobile Phone UsersForecast (m users)Source: UMTS Forumphilips
8、on.infoMobile Phone Users per Internet UserSource: Gartnerphilipson.infoWireless Enabling TechnologiesnWAPnXMLnBluetoothn3Gn802.11netc. etc. etc.philipson.infoWireless InhibitorsnDevice limitations screens etc.nBusiness and consumer acceptancenBusiness orientation of operatorsnInfrastructure and net
9、worksnGovernment policynInteroperabilitynSecurityphilipson.infophilipson.info5. Web Services and the Evolution of Applicationsphilipson.info1970s1980s1990sEISEDISCMERPBISFA CRMe-CommercePayrollGL AP ARMRPGLThe integration of enterprise applicationsHRFMISMRP IIDistribution Planning Schedulinge-Busine
10、ssphilipson.infoManageCreateSecurePublishSearchPortalStructured and Unstructured Data SourcesData Management InfrastructureContent ManagementContent-Enabled ApplicationsWeb ServicesInformation Infrastructure (“Upstream”)Content- based Applications (“Downstream”)philipson.infoWeb Services Architectur
11、eRegistryServiceClientPublish WSDL, UDDIBind SOAPFind WSDL,UDDIphilipson.infoWeb Services Process Flow XMLXMLUser InterfacesInternal/ExternalB2BBrowserWeb clientWirelessOther systemsCustomers and partnersClient infoOrdersBook stockExecute requestReject orderRequestCheck creditRULES(Any technology)So
12、urce: Butler Groupphilipson.info6. The Rise of Open Sourcephilipson.infoThe Rise of Open SourcenUnix origins in open sourcenLunix set the patternnMuch more to open source than LinuxnOpen source is not (necessarily) freenPhilosophical and ideological challenge to conventionphilipson.info7. The Threat
13、 to IP and Copyrightphilipson.infoThe Threat to IP and CopyrightnCopyright is not part of the natural order of thingsnDigitisation means “disintermediation”nDistributors only slowly adjusting to new business modelsnThe key battleground of the digital millenniumphilipson.info8. Commodisation and Rati
14、onalisationphilipson.infonDeclining number of hardware architectures Intel vs the restnMajor Systems Vendors - and then there were fivenPC commoditisation - economies of scale and the decline of clonesHardware Rationalisationphilipson.infoThe Major Hardware Vendors, 1991-2001Annual RevenuesSource: A
15、nnual Reportsphilipson.infoHardware Architectures Intel vs the RestnIBM zSeries (Mainframe) iSeries (AS/400) pSeries (RS/6000) xSeries (Intel)nHP Moving to totally IntelnDell Totally IntelnSun SPARC, Intel (AMD) at low endphilipson.infoWhere are they now?WANG Data GeneralPrimeBurroughsControl DataHo
16、neywellAmdahlPyramidHDSUltimateTandemdigitalphilipson.infoSoftware RationalisationnOperating system rationalisation Proprietary systems dead Rationalisation of Unix, Growth of Linux Steady growth of WindowsnDBMS rationalisation Once many players (Sybase, Informix, Progress, Ingres, etc.) Oracle vs IBM vs MicrosoftnSystems software rationalisation Everybody acquired by CA, BMC and Compuware Microsoft replacing
