《贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (48)》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (48)（27页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Fisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementMaterials Irene Lipin Ryan Mayes Mike Longosector analysisFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementOverview Sector & Business Analysis Economic Analysis Financial Analysis Recommendations Q&AFisher College of Business Student Inv
2、estment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationFinancial AnalysisSector & Business AnalysisFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationSector CompositionContainers and
3、 Packaging Metal, Plastic, Cardboard, and Glass Containers Paper Packaging Forestry and Paper Products Timber, Related Wood Products All Grades of PaperConstruction Materials Sand Clay Gypsum AggregatesChemicals Commodity Chemicals Diversified Chemicals Specialty Chemicals Industrial Gasses Fertiliz
4、ers Metals and Mining Manufacturing of Aluminum Mining/Extracting of Gold & Silver Steel Other Precious Metals and MaterialsFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationS&P500 & SIM Sector Weights as of 1/31/2010Fi
5、sher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationMajor CompaniesCOMPANYTICKERINDUSTRYMARKET CAP ($Mil)PRICE AS OF 2/7/2010BETAP/EBHP Billiton Ltd. BHPDiv. Metals & Mining 192,560 $69.201.4732.96BHP Billiton PLCBBLDiv. Me
6、tals & Mining 162,790$58.501.4727.73ValeVALEDiv. Metals & Mining134,180$25.741.7045.32Monsanto Co.MONAgri. Chem.41,880$76.74.7427.95POSCO PKXSteel34,860$111.901.929.96Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.POTAgri. Chem.30,630$103.481.2521.43The Dow Chemical Co.DOWChemicals30,330$26.522.35120.56Freeport-M
7、cMoRan Cooper & Gold, Inc.FCXDiv. Metals & Mining30,200$70.231.8812.32El du Pont de Nemours & Co. “DuPont”DDChemicals29,580$32.731.3917.02Goldcorp, Inc. GGGold26,020$13.352.2192.55Median:1.58527.84Fisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFina
8、ncial AnalysisRecommendationIndustry and Business Cycle Mature Sector Highly Cyclical Sensitive to Fluctuations in the Business Cycle Relies on Strong Economy Sensitive to Supply / Demand Fluctuations Prices of Raw Materials Largely Demand Driven Growth through Acquisition Growth through R&D Exposed
9、 to Wide Array of Industries High Barriers to Entry Threat of New Competition is Low High Capital / Fixed Costs Increased Environmental RegulationNo New Buyers Repeat Purchase Can get Boring Fewer BIG playersFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic A
10、nalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationEconomic AnalysisFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationMaterials versus S&P 500 10 Yr PerformanceFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Busine
11、ss AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationRecent Key Economic Drivers Robust demand from emerging markets Chinese economy Sustained demand from developed markets United States, European Union Spring-time homebuilding Weak Dollar Upward price pressure on commodities / raw materials
12、Cheapens American exportsFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationNow, however Tightening Chinese monetary authority Unfolding European debt crisis Strengthening dollar/Weakening Euro Downward price pressure on
13、 commodities / raw materials Raises prices of American exportsFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationHousing Starts vs. Sector PerformanceCorrelation Coefficient (R) = - .22Fisher College of Business Student
14、Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationCommodities vs. Sector PerformanceCorrelation Coefficient (R) = .67Fisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendation$ Valu
15、e vs. Sector PerformanceCorrelation Coefficient (R) = .79Fisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationFinancial AnalysisFisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic Ana
16、lysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationRevenue Growth Materials vs. S&PMaterialsS&P 500Average increase 1.7%Average increase 3.4%Fisher College of Business Student Investment ManagementSector & Business AnalysisEconomic AnalysisFinancial AnalysisRecommendationEBITDA Growth Materials vs. S&PMaterialsS&P 500% of sales% of salesFisher College of Busine
