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1、Corporate and Project Finance ModelingTheory and PracticeContentsPrefacexviiAcknowledgmentsxxiiiPART IFINANCIAL MODELING STRUCTURE AND DESIGN: STRUCTURE AND MECHANICS OF DEVELOPING FINANCIAL MODELS FOR CORPORATE FINANCE AND PROJECT FINANCE ANALYSISCHAPTER 1Financial Modeling and Valuation Nightmares
2、: Problems That Financial Models Cannot Solve3CHAPTER 2Becoming a Black Belt Modeler9CHAPTER 3General Model Objectives of Structuring Transactions, Risk Analysis, and Valuation13CHAPTER 4The Structure of Alternative Financial Models17Structure of a Corporate Model: Incorporating History and Deriving
3、 Forecasts from Historical Analysis21 Use of the INDEX Function in Corporate Models26 Easing the Pain of Acquiring PDF Data28 Structure of a Project Finance Model That Accounts for Different Risks in Different Phases over the Life of a Project30 Reconciliation of Internal Rate of Return in Project F
4、inance with Return on Investment in Corporate Finance33 Structure of an Acquisition Model: Alternative Transaction Prices and Financing Terms35vStructure of an Integrated Merger Model: Forecasting Earnings per Share37CHAPTER 5Avoiding Bad Programming Practices and Creating Effective Auditing Process
5、es41How to Make Financial Models More Efficient and Accurate 44CHAPTER 6Developing and Efficiently Organizing Assumptions55Assumptions in Demand-Driven Models versus Supply-Driven Models: The Danger of Overcapacity in an Industry55 Creating a Flexible Input Structure for Model Assumptions60 Alternat
6、ive Input Structures for Project Finance and Corporate Finance Models62 Setting Up Inputs with Code Numbers and the INDEX Function62CHAPTER 7Structuring Time Lines67Timing in Corporate Finance Models: Distinguishing the Historical Period, Explicit Period, and Terminal Period67 Development to Decommi
7、ssioning: Phases in the Life of a Project Finance Model69 Timing in Acquisition Models: Separating the Transaction Period, the Holding Period, and the Exit Period70 Structuring a Time Line to Measure History, Explicit Periods, and Terminal Periods in Corporate Models and Risk Phases in Project Finan
8、ce Models72 Computing Start of Period and End of Period Dates73 TRUE and FALSE Switches in Modeling Time Periods75 Computing the Age of a Project in Years on a Monthly, Quarterly, or Semiannual Basis77 The Magic of a HISTORIC Switch in a Corporate Model78 Transferring Data from a Corporate Model to
9、an Acquisition Model Using MATCH and INDEX Functions82CHAPTER 8Projecting Revenues, Expenses, and Capital Expenditures to Derive Pretax Cash Flow85Transparent Calculations of Pretax Cash Flow85viContentsInflation and Growth Rates in Calculations of Pretax Cash Flow88Valuation Analysis from Prefinanc
10、ing, Pretax Cash Flow90CHAPTER 9Moving from Pretax Cash Flow to After-Tax Free Cash Flow91Working Capital Analysis91 Problems in Computing Depreciation Expense in Corporate Models Involving Asset Retirements92 Portfolios of Assets with a Vintage Process94 Accounting for Asset Retirements in Corporat
11、e Models99 Alternative Methods for Deriving Retirements Associated with Existing Assets in Corporate Models103 Depreciation Issues in Project Finance Models109 Modeling the Change in Deferred Taxes in Corporate Models110 Adjusting the Tax Basis in an Acquisition111CHAPTER 10Adding Debt to a Corporat
12、e or Project Finance Model by Programming Cash Flow Waterfalls113Adding the Debt Schedule to a Financial Model114 Modeling Scheduled Debt Repayments116 Connecting Debt to Cash Flow in Corporate Models117 With a Structured Process, You Can Model Any Cash Flow Waterfall119 Defaults on Debt and Measuri
13、ng the Debt Internal Rate of Return124 Assessing Risk and Return Characteristics of Subordinated Debt127CHAPTER 11Alternative Calculations of Equity Distributions131Modeling Dividend Distributions132 Computing a Target Capital Structure through Simulating New Equity Issues and Buybacks136CHAPTER 12P
14、utting Together Financial Statements and Calculating Income Taxes139ContentsviiComputation of Taxes Paid and Taxes Deferred140 Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet144PART IIANALYZING RISKS WITH FINANCIAL MODELS: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS, TIME SERIES, AND MONTE CA
15、RLO SIMULATIONCHAPTER 13Risk Assessment: The Centerpiece of All Valuation, Contracting, and Credit Issues in Finance149Six Alternative Ways to Assess the Risk of a Company, a Project, or a Contract151 Using Direct Risk Assessment to Measure Cash Flow and Financial Ratios154CHAPTER 14Defining, Descri
16、bing, and Assessing Risk in a Risk Allocation Matrix159CHAPTER 15Presentation of Risk Analysis through Adding Sensitivity Analysis to Financial Models165Setting Up Data for Making Graphs by Converting Periodic Data into Annual, Semiannual, or Quarterly Data167 Using the INDIRECT Function to Automate Conversion to Time Period Data172 Making Flexible Graphs for Sensitivity Analysis173CHAPTER 16Using Financial Models to Establish Break-Even Points for Key Input Variables with Data Tables185Establis
