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1、 PNG LNG Economic Impact Study An assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of the proposed PNG LNG Project on the economy of Papua New Guinea 6 February 2008 (rev April 2009) iii Contents Executive summary v Direct benefits v Indirect benefits vii 1 Introduction 1 2 Project overview 2 2.1 PNG L
2、NG development concept 2 2.1.1 Project facilities 3 3 Assessment of Direct Impacts 4 3.1 Assessment methodology 4 3.2 Scenario definition 5 3.3 Study Case key assumptions 5 3.3.1 Production volumes 5 3.3.2 Capital and operating costs 6 3.3.3 Price assumptions 6 3.3.4 Fiscal regime 8 3.3.5 PNG Govern
3、ment equity participation 8 3.4 Capital investment and recurrent expenditure 8 3.4.1 Capital investment 8 3.4.2 Recurrent operating expenditure 9 3.5 Value of output 10 3.6 Employment 11 3.7 Exploration and production activity 14 3.8 Sources of income and direct cash flows 15 3.8.1 Taxation revenue
4、15 3.8.2 Development Levy 15 3.8.3 Royalty 16 3.8.4 Modelled taxation, development levy and royalty payments 16 3.8.5 Equity participation in the Gas Project 17 3.8.6 Other potential sources of direct benefit 19 4 Economy-wide Impacts of the PNG LNG Project 21 4.1 Overview of the PNG economy: the ro
5、le of petroleum and mining 21 4.2 Methodology and assumptions 22 4.3 Direct and indirect impacts during construction and operation 25 4.3.1 Nature of the impacts 25 4.3.2 Estimate of the direct and indirect income impacts 27 iv 4.4 Economy-wide impacts 30 4.4.1 Macroeconomic impacts 30 4.4.2 Sectora
6、l impacts 31 4.4.3 Employment impacts 34 4.4.4 Impacts on the PNG government budget 35 4.5 Summary of the overall impacts 35 4.6 Managing the impacts to sustain the benefits 36 5 References 40 A The economic assessment framework A-1 Boxes, charts, figures and tables Figure 1 PNG LNG Project Schemati
7、c 2 Figure 2 Total capital expenditure (Real US$, 2007) 9 Figure 3 Recurrent operating expenditure (Real US$, 2007) 10 Figure 4 Total value of output (real US$, 2007) 11 Figure 5 Construction workforce direct employment and contractors 12 Figure 6 Operations workforce direct employment 13 Figure 7 T
8、otal direct employment from construction and operations 13 Figure 8 Taxation, Development Levy and Royalty PaymentsStudy Case 16 Figure 9 Comparison of total government tax, levy and royalty receipts for Study Case, Low and High oil price cases 17 Figure 10 PNG government equity share of net cash fl
9、ow (after tax and financing costs)Study Case 19 Figure 11 Contribution to GDP by industry sector 21 Figure 12 Value of main export commodities 22 Figure 13 Direct income impact during project operation (average Kina million per annum, real prices) 28 Figure 14 Distribution of revenue flows 29 Figure
10、 A1 The comparative static approach A-2 Table 1 List of commodities and industries in the model 24 Table 2 Macroeconomic impacts of the PNG LNG Project 31 Table 3 Impacts of the PNG LNG Project on value-added, by sector 32 Table 4 Employment impacts of the PNG LNG Project 34 Table 5 Impacts on the G
11、overnment sector 35 Executive summary v Executive summary The PNG LNG project offers a means of unlocking value from the extensive gas resources of the Southern Highlands region. The project has the potential to transform the economy of Papua New Guinea, boosting GDP and export earnings, providing a
12、 major increase in government revenue, royalty payments to landowners, creating employment opportunities during construction and operation, and providing a catalyst to further gas-based industry development. The benefits from the project would spread throughout the economy as the government applies
13、the earnings from its substantial share of the project revenues to social and economic programs. These programs have the potential to improve the quality of life of Papua New Guineans by providing essential services and enhancing the countrys productivity. Benefits would also flow through the econom
14、y as the wages and salaries of project staff are spent and as suppliers provide a range of goods and services to the project. Landowners stand to benefit from direct payments of royalties on production of gas and associated petroleum products, as well as improved social and economic infrastructure.
15、Direct benefits The potential direct benefits offered by the PNG LNG Project are expected to flow from: capital investment in LNG production and support facilities, upstream gas production and processing development, pipelines, storage and other infrastructure employment direct cash flows to governm
16、ent and landowners in the form of taxes, royalties, development levies and other charges, and returns on equity participation potential for increased petroleum exploration and production (E private and public consumption up 85 to 107 per cent; aggregate employment up 42 to 45 per cent; and foreign currency exports up around 106 per cent. On the other hand, the modelling indicates that grow
